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the West fix its growing disconnect between battery ambitions and raw material supply?","can-the-west-fix-its-growing-disconnect-between-battery-ambitions-and-raw-material-supply","article/can-the-west-fix-its-growing-disconnect-between-battery-ambitions-and-raw-material-supply",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":640,"featured":50,"reporter":641,"_editable":645,"component":646,"seo_title":553,"categories":647,"visibility":654,"author_company":49,"featured_image":655,"seo_description":640,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":660,"formattedArticleDate":661},"7a0c0218-8e97-4859-8fa8-26fb50c9c18f","2021-09-02 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"data-visualisation","Data Visualisation",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,598,603,608,613,620,625,630,635],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"Outside of China, Europe and North America are the key regions developing significant lithium ion cell production capacity. Europe now has 778 GWh of capacity in the pipeline for 2030 — cell plants in production, under development, or planned — with North America’s pipeline currently sitting at 499 GWh.","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"There has been a notable uptick in investment into battery cell facilities in Europe and the USA since 2018 but this has not been matched by an increase in battery raw material mining and processing investment, leading to a growing disconnect between raw material demand and supply. Data from Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast shows how this growing disconnect could lead to an annual lithium supply shortfall of up to 225,000 tonnes in North America and 500,000 tonnes in Europe by 2030.",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"Benchmark’s Cameron Perks, Senior Analyst, explained that “in general, there is a lack of understanding of just how much lithium is required to fuel electric vehicle demand going forward. Some investors may have been scared away by the previous low-price environment. But it’s important to reiterate that we are in a completely different world now in terms of demand.”",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":582},"Lithium prices fell consistently between early 2018 and late 2020, with Benchmark’s Global Weighted Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide prices falling 67% and 56%, respectively, from their peaks. However, in late 2020, Chinese domestic lithium carbonate prices began to rise which spread through to the wider market. These price rises have continued and in 2021 Benchmark’s Lithium Carbonate Index has risen 135.0% and Benchmark’s Hydroxide Index is up 87.3% as at the end of August.",{"type":577,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601],{"text":602,"type":582},"Perks said that to incentivise investment into the sector “there is going to have to be a sustained period of higher prices than we have seen over the past few years.” He added that while investment is important “there also has to be some level of education for decision makers on the severity of the shortfall and how much money and time it realistically takes to get a mine into operation and ramped up.”",{"type":577,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":582},"While battery plants can be brought online and ramped up in under five years, Perks explained that “in mining and processing, where it can take up to 10 or more years to go from discovery to production, companies and investors often underestimate the time it takes to bring projects online.”",{"type":577,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":582},"Developing midstream cathode production in these regions will also be key to incentivising the buildout of upstream extraction and processing. While there are several cathode projects being built in Europe, Perks explained that in the USA “there is a serious gap opening up between cathode supply and cell demand. But we expect announcements on cathode capacity to pick up speed following the increase in cell production announcements there.” Without sufficient local cathode capacity there would be little point in producing lithium or other raw materials in the USA to then ship it to Asia for cathode production.",{"type":614,"attrs":615,"content":617},"heading",{"level":616,"textAlign":49},4,[618],{"text":619,"type":582},"Supply chain localisation critical ",{"type":577,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":582},"Perks also noted how supply chain localisation and security are of growing importance for governments, saying that “countries want to be in control of their own destiny. They want to have an integrated system where higher profits stay within the country, they want to apply their own standards and specifications, they want to gain knowledge and intellectual property, and they want to remove the risk that shipping channels could once again get disrupted as we are seeing with COVID.”",{"type":577,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":582},"While there is growing discussion in Western governments of the need for supply chain localisation, there has been little in terms of implementation to date. The EU is aiming for 80% of its lithium requirements to be sourced locally by 2025, but Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast estimates that by then only 3% of global lithium feedstock will be produced in Europe, falling considerably short of the EU’s target.",{"type":577,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":582},"The USA’s National Lithium Battery Blueprint acknowledges that where domestic supply is insufficient it expects the USA to source raw materials from international allies. But there is a risk that lithium — such as Australian spodumene, much of which is being processed in China — and other raw materials are locked into long term supply contracts and unavailable to the wider market.",{"type":577,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":582},"Whether sourcing internationally or domestically, Western countries will be facing a growing disconnect between demand and supply for lithium through the 2020s. Benchmark is forecasting a supply deficit emerging in 2022, which will continue to grow unless sufficient supply is brought online. While this supply shortfall will affect the global market, regions such as Europe and North America will be among the most exposed to these supply risks.","Outside of China, Europe and North America are the key regions developing significant lithium ion cell production capacity. Europe now has 778 GWh of capacity in the pipeline for 2030 — cell plants in production, under development, or planned — with North America’s pipeline currently sitting at 499 GWh. There has been a notable uptick […]",[642],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":643},{"job_title":568,"image":644,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"7a0c0218-8e97-4859-8fa8-26fb50c9c18f\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[648,651],{"slug":649,"name":650},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":652,"name":653},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":656,"name":656,"focus":656,"title":656,"source":656,"filename":657,"copyright":656,"fieldtype":658,"meta_data":659,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/da0a2232f7/bm-usa-eu-flag-surkovdimitri.jpg","asset",{"alt":656,"title":656,"source":656,"copyright":656},"Sep 02, 2021","2nd September 2021",[],[],1792688591010]