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mount in lithium’s spodumene bear market","casualties-mount-in-lithiums-spodumene-bear-market","article/casualties-mount-in-lithiums-spodumene-bear-market",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":706,"featured":50,"reporter":707,"_editable":711,"component":712,"seo_title":553,"categories":713,"visibility":717,"author_company":49,"featured_image":718,"seo_description":706,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":723,"formattedArticleDate":724},"43d99edb-01c1-4950-add8-1ebca2a50778","2020-10-27 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,595,600,605,610,617,622,627,632,645,650,661,666,671,676,681,686,691,701],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"The Australian Financial Review has reported that Western Australia’s Altura Mining has entered receivership having struggled to service debts in excess of AUS $200 million.","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583,585,593],{"text":584,"type":579},"Altura and its fellow spodumene producers have been under pressure from falling spodumene prices, which have dropped to $375/tonne (6% Li2O, FOB Australia) in September 2020, down from a peak of $915/tonne in June 2018 as assessed by ",{"text":586,"type":579,"marks":587},"Benchmark’s Lithium Price Assessment",[588],{"type":589,"attrs":590},"link",{"href":591,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/#lithium","url",{"text":594,"type":579},".",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast shows that Altura’s Pilgangoora mine supported 8,800 tonnes LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) in 2019 and that, if ramped to full capacity, it would produce up to 30,000 tpa LCE. Prior to its difficulties the company had explored further expansion to 60,000 tpa LCE capacity.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"In spite of weakening market conditions, the company had continued to announce updated offtake agreements this year, extending its partnership with Ningbo Shanshan – one of China’s leading anode and cathode material producers – with a five-year offtake with to supply its lithium chemical plant in Hunan, China.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"As well as threatening lithium availability in the company’s push upstream, Shanshan will also feel the financial impact of Altura’s difficulties as it is currently Altura’s leading shareholder, with a 15% stake as at 30 September 2020.",{"type":611,"attrs":612,"content":614},"heading",{"level":613,"textAlign":49},4,[615],{"text":616,"type":579},"Australia’s spodumene rollercoaster: 2015 to 2020",{"type":574,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620],{"text":621,"type":579},"While today there are five spodumene operations in Western Australia, including Altura Mining’s Pilgangoora operation, back in 2015 only Albemarle’s Greenbushes mine was in operation.",{"type":574,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625],{"text":626,"type":579},"This was before the lithium price rises of 2016/17, which incentivised a wave of new producers to come into production. By 2018 there were six hard rock lithium mines in operation in Australia.",{"type":574,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630],{"text":631,"type":579},"But rapid expansion of feedstock production eventually led to a surplus in supply and a persistent period of falling prices. The continuing price falls since 2018 have caused issues for all producers, but this has particularly been the case for new projects which are still operating above target production costs on their route to nameplate capacity.",{"type":574,"attrs":633,"content":634},{"textAlign":49},[635,637,643],{"text":636,"type":579},"The first casualty was Alita Resources, which appointed administrators in August 2019. Alita’s Bald Hill Mine was the first of 2018’s new generation of spodumene mines to enter production and ",{"text":638,"type":579,"marks":639},"Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast",[640],{"type":589,"attrs":641},{"href":642,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/#lithium",{"text":644,"type":579}," shows it produced 3,000 tonnes LCE in the first year, ramping up slightly to 3,500 tonnes in 2019.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"Issues arising from spodumene’s slump have not been confined to new entrants and established producers have been forced to cut back on expansions. In the same month that Alita appointed administrators, lithium major Albemarle, which operates the Greenbushes mine as part of a joint venture with China’s Tianqi, downgraded its expansion plans and slashed its capex budget.",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653,655,659],{"text":654,"type":579},"The pressures on Australia’s spodumene producers continued as ",{"text":638,"type":579,"marks":656},[657],{"type":589,"attrs":658},{"href":642,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"text":660,"type":579}," shows that a backlog of material at the end of 2019 saw 25,000-50,000 tonnes LCE of excess material carried over into 2020.",{"type":574,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":579},"Tianqi, the majority holder of the Greenbushes operation joint venture, is now also feeling the effects of lithium’s bear market, as over expansions through the 2010s are coming home to roost. The Chinese company took a $4.1bn (24% stake) in SQM at the lithium market’s peak in 2018 and since then its debt burden, compounded by lithium’s falling prices, have seen the company reportedly consider asset and equity sales.",{"type":574,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":579},"With the supply glut extending from last year the downward pressure on prices have continued – with spodumene prices (6% Li2O, FOB Australia) down -22% year to date as at the end of September 2020.",{"type":611,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"level":613,"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":579},"What next?",{"type":574,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":579},"With Altura entering receivership there is an opportunity for existing producers in the industry to acquire the company and its operations at its Pilgangoora mine. While there has been nothing confirmed, the Australian Financial Review speculated as to whether nearby Pilbara Minerals would look to take advantage of its neighbour’s difficulties. There are of course majors – such as Albemarle – or even those from outside the industry that may be interested in securing the asset.",{"type":574,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":579},"Altura has offtake agreements in place with a number of Chinese companies including Ganfeng Lithium, Ruifu Lithium, Lionergy and Weihua, in addition to the offtake agreement announced with Shanshan earlier this year. For established majors such as Ganfeng it will not be affected by Altura’s receivership. However, smaller converters such as Ruifu Lithium and Weihua, which have access to fewer sources of feedstock, could find material availability limited by these developments.",{"type":574,"attrs":687,"content":688},{"textAlign":49},[689],{"text":690,"type":579},"There are also much wider implications for lithium’s downstream, for which Altura’s troubles represent broader issues at play.",{"type":574,"attrs":692,"content":693},{"textAlign":49},[694,696,700],{"text":695,"type":579},"With lithium’s low-price environment having now persisted for over two years, expansions have been delayed and cutbacks have become a reality. While the market has been in surplus and will remain so into 2021, there are strong demand fundamentals from the electric vehicle industry that will see demand grow by 3.5x between 2019 and 2025 according to ",{"text":638,"type":579,"marks":697},[698],{"type":589,"attrs":699},{"href":642,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"text":594,"type":579},{"type":574,"attrs":702,"content":703},{"textAlign":49},[704],{"text":705,"type":579},"As such, the current lack of an incentive price to foster new supply and sustain existing operations will mean that as demand ramps up at the end of next year there will be insufficient supply to meet demand from 2022 onwards. The implications will be more price volatility in the medium term and bottlenecks for the battery supply chain.","The Australian Financial Review has reported that Western Australia’s Altura Mining has entered receivership having struggled to service debts in excess of AUS $200 million. Altura and its fellow spodumene producers have been under pressure from falling spodumene prices, which have dropped to $375/tonne (6% Li2O, FOB Australia) in September 2020, down from a peak […]",[708],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":709},{"job_title":565,"image":710,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"43d99edb-01c1-4950-add8-1ebca2a50778\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[714],{"slug":715,"name":716},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":719,"name":719,"focus":719,"title":719,"source":719,"filename":720,"copyright":719,"fieldtype":721,"meta_data":722,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/c1b4a53c46/bm-spodumene5.jpg","asset",{"alt":719,"title":719,"source":719,"copyright":719},"Oct 27, 2020","27th October 2020",[],[],1792753403746]