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expansions in the West hit by EV sales slump","cathode-expansions-in-the-west-hit-by-ev-sales-slump","article/cathode-expansions-in-the-west-hit-by-ev-sales-slump",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":566,"content":576,"excerpt":761,"featured":51,"reporter":762,"_editable":766,"component":767,"seo_title":553,"categories":768,"visibility":777,"author_company":49,"featured_image":778,"seo_description":761,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":782,"formattedArticleDate":783},"50733c8b-a823-4d25-a92f-c3587f79e70b","2024-10-18 00:00",[560,563],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",{"slug":564,"name":565},"europe","Europe",[567],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":570},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":571,"image":572,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":573},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":577,"content":578},"doc",[579,586,601,622,657,662,669,674,684,689,701,706,718,731,740,745,756],{"type":580,"attrs":581,"content":582},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":585},"Western cathode producers are coming under stress from headwinds linked to a slowdown in regional electric vehicle (EV) sales, leading capacity expansion to be scaled back in 2024.","text",{"type":580,"attrs":587,"content":588},{"textAlign":49},[589,591,599],{"text":590,"type":585},"In Europe, the combined impact of delays is set to reduce Europe’s supply by up to 10% long-term, ",{"text":592,"type":585,"marks":593},"according to the Benchmark Cathode Forecast",[594],{"type":595,"attrs":596},"link",{"href":597,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/cathode/data-reports/forecast","url",{"text":600,"type":585},". This will leave the region facing an 800 GWh cathode supply deficit by 2030.",{"type":580,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604,606,612,614,620],{"text":605,"type":585},"EV sales in Europe have contracted 4% between January and August compared to the same period in 2023, according to ",{"text":607,"type":585,"marks":608},"Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Forecast",[609],{"type":595,"attrs":610},{"href":611,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-ion-batteries/data-reports/price-assessments",{"text":613,"type":585},", resulting in ",{"text":615,"type":585,"marks":616},"176 gigawatt hours (GWh) of the region’s pipeline gigafactory capacity to be cancelled in 2024",[617],{"type":595,"attrs":618},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/",{"text":621,"type":585},".",{"type":580,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625,627,632,634,640,642,647,649,655],{"text":626,"type":585},"A weakened demand outlook from regional gigafactories, ",{"text":628,"type":585,"marks":629},"combined with the prevailing low price environment",[630],{"type":595,"attrs":631},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},{"text":633,"type":585}," for cathode material, has created a challenging operational environment for market entrants. ",{"text":635,"type":585,"marks":636},"Umicore",[637],{"type":595,"attrs":638},{"href":639,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/umicore-delays-battery-material-expansion-plans-as-short-term-pressures-bite",{"text":641,"type":585},", BASF, ",{"text":643,"type":585,"marks":644},"EcoPro",[645],{"type":595,"attrs":646},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},{"text":648,"type":585},", and ",{"text":650,"type":585,"marks":651},"Northvolt",[652],{"type":595,"attrs":653},{"href":654,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/northvolt-halts-european-cathode-plans-to-refocus-on-batteries?_branch_match_id=1544394454459647767&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=share&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA8soKSkottLXT0rNS87ITSzKzs3MSy1KzCnWSywo0MvJzMvWNzM09s12zCrL8k%2ByrytKTUstKsrMS49PKsovL04tsnXOKMrPTQUAuNDXkkgAAAA%3D",{"text":656,"type":585}," have all either confirmed or announced they are considering plans to defer expansions in Europe.",{"type":580,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":585},"North America, too, has experienced several project delays in 2024. Umicore and Posco have both opted to delay expansions in Canada due to challenging market conditions, resulting in a 15% reduction in regional cathode capacity over 2025 and 2026.",{"type":663,"attrs":664,"content":666},"heading",{"level":665,"textAlign":49},4,[667],{"text":668,"type":585},"China’s LFP boom squeezes wider industry margins",{"type":580,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":585},"Alongside demand headwinds, western cathode producers have also been squeezed by China’s rapidly expanding, vertically-integrated lithium ion phosphate (LFP) supply base.",{"type":580,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677,682],{"text":678,"type":585,"marks":679},"Despite a prevailing oversupply and falling prices",[680],{"type":595,"attrs":681},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},{"text":683,"type":585},", the Benchmark Cathode Forecast reports investment into LFP capacity China has continued in 2024: supply increased by 28% over the first three quarters of the year, while NCM low/mid nickel supply fell by 8%.",{"type":580,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"textAlign":49},[687],{"text":688,"type":585},"LFP has benefited from rising demand from both the EV and electronic stationary storage (ESS) sectors due to lower production costs. The chemistry is set to account for close to half of global cathode demand in 2024.  ",{"type":580,"attrs":690,"content":691},{"textAlign":49},[692,694,699],{"text":693,"type":585},"In Europe, Benchmark analysis indicates LFP could reach 50% of market share by 2030, up from only 27% in 2024. ",{"text":695,"type":585,"marks":696},"This is due to European tariffs on Chinese EVs being set much lower in the US",[697],{"type":595,"attrs":698},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},{"text":700,"type":585},", creating more LFP opportunities in Europe for Chinese EV makers.",{"type":663,"attrs":702,"content":703},{"level":665,"textAlign":49},[704],{"text":705,"type":585},"Europe faces prolonged LFP supply deficit",{"type":580,"attrs":707,"content":708},{"textAlign":49},[709,711,716],{"text":710,"type":585},"As ",{"text":712,"type":585,"marks":713},"LFP cells continue to make inroads in Europe",[714],{"type":595,"attrs":715},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},{"text":717,"type":585},", the region is set to face a worsening shortage of domestic LFP cathode supply. ",{"type":580,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"textAlign":49},[721,723,729],{"text":722,"type":585},"Although today Europe produces just 1.2 GWh of LFP cells, this figure is set to rise to 74 GWh by the end of the decade, ",{"text":724,"type":585,"marks":725},"according to Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Database",[726],{"type":595,"attrs":727},{"href":728,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-ion-batteries",{"text":730,"type":585},". ",{"type":580,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"textAlign":49},[734],{"type":735,"attrs":736},"image",{"id":49,"alt":737,"src":738,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":739},"","https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfeTdz2oPTPIXyjVVJck978KPsM0MzJwqI2n6nC3Ls9G1_Est8IMTc1nIliT3CL3GIGIVgRcPJo66sr9Tdydakp2rR78uMX96RRQa4g2HFy4iPpmFHpiHQaLMD3TEuksf5eoiT6t0qQX_lYEucPBGprMKVg?key=4KRB2ou6E2Dd1SHCdkDQ9w",{},{"type":580,"attrs":741,"content":742},{"textAlign":49},[743],{"text":744,"type":585},"“As Europe’s LFP EV demand continues to grow and ramp up past 2030, the region’s domestic LFP cathode supply is expected to flatline towards the end of the decade,” said Harry Tinker, senior cathode analyst at Benchmark.",{"type":580,"attrs":746,"content":747},{"textAlign":49},[748,750,755],{"text":749,"type":585},"He added that ",{"text":751,"type":585,"marks":752},"recent joint venture investments between Chinese/South Korean and European companies for LFP cathode facilities have bolstered the supply outlook somewhat in the short term",[753],{"type":595,"attrs":754},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},{"text":621,"type":585},{"type":580,"attrs":757,"content":758},{"textAlign":49},[759],{"text":760,"type":585},"“But to avoid long-term reliance on Chinese cathode imports, Europe will need to make significant investments in developing its own upstream and midstream supply chains,” said Tinker. ","Western cathode producers are coming under stress from headwinds linked to a slowdown in regional electric vehicle (EV) sales, leading capacity expansion to be scaled back in 2024. In Europe, the combined impact of delays is set to reduce Europe’s supply by up to 10% long-term, according to the Benchmark Cathode Forecast. This will leave […]",[763],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":764},{"job_title":571,"image":765,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},{"filename":573},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"50733c8b-a823-4d25-a92f-c3587f79e70b\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[769,772,774],{"slug":770,"name":771},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":773,"name":299},"cathode",{"slug":775,"name":776},"ev","EV","private",{"id":49,"alt":737,"name":737,"focus":737,"title":737,"source":737,"filename":779,"copyright":737,"fieldtype":780,"meta_data":781,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/639b39a706/bm-ev-sweden.jpg","asset",{"alt":737,"title":737,"source":737,"copyright":737},"Oct 18, 2024","18th October 2024",[],[],1792688570508]