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market","china-and-the-west-the-state-of-the-global-cathode-market","article/china-and-the-west-the-state-of-the-global-cathode-market",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":550,"content":560,"excerpt":766,"featured":50,"reporter":767,"_editable":771,"component":772,"seo_title":543,"categories":773,"visibility":776,"author_company":49,"featured_image":777,"seo_description":766,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":781,"formattedArticleDate":782},"6dcae19a-2f2b-49eb-bf5f-6f15760a8d2a","2023-12-05 00:00",[],[551],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":554},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":555,"image":556,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":557},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":561,"content":562},"doc",[563,570,575,590,595,600,607,612,617,622,627,632,644,649,654,663,668,681,686,691,696,709,714,719,724,731,736,741,746,751,756,761],{"type":564,"attrs":565,"content":566},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[567],{"text":568,"type":569},"Declining prices and low demand have been major themes of the cathode active materials market this year. ","text",{"type":564,"attrs":571,"content":572},{"textAlign":49},[573],{"text":574,"type":569},"Benchmark’s Cathode Price Index has fallen by 58% year-to-date. ",{"type":564,"attrs":576,"content":577},{"textAlign":49},[578,580,588],{"text":579,"type":569},"Yet despite the slowdown, Benchmark still forecasts a ",{"text":581,"type":569,"marks":582},"300 gigawatt hour (GWh) increase",[583],{"type":584,"attrs":585},"link",{"href":586,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/cathode/reports/","url",{"text":589,"type":569}," in year-on-year demand in 2023 and a supply deficit due by 2028. ",{"type":564,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":569},"The sector is also undergoing a period of major reorganisation. Oversupply in China’s industry could drive consolidation there while companies in Europe and the US are rapidly expanding pipeline capacity.",{"type":564,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":569},"Here are three things to know about the cathode market at this critical juncture:",{"type":601,"attrs":602,"content":604},"heading",{"level":603,"textAlign":49},4,[605],{"text":606,"type":569},"1. China faces an overcapacity crisis but the world will soon need the extra output",{"type":564,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":569},"Overcapacity is the biggest story of the Chinese cathode industry right now, a situation where producers are able to make more cathodes than there is demand for them. ",{"type":564,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":569},"Weaker-than-expected Chinese electric vehicle (EV) demand has meant cell maker purchasing has dwindled, leading cathode materials makers to cut production. ",{"type":564,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620],{"text":621,"type":569},"The general capacity utilisation rate in China is between 50%-60%, but some smaller cathode producers may have rates of around 30%.",{"type":564,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625],{"text":626,"type":569},"Overcapacity is a serious problem that will likely push smaller producers to fold over the coming months, leaving larger players to pick up their assets. ",{"type":564,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630],{"text":631,"type":569},"In the longer run, however, the global market will benefit from the surplus capacity. The sheer rate of forecast demand growth from the battery sector means all of today’s Chinese capacity – and more – will be needed. ",{"type":564,"attrs":633,"content":634},{"textAlign":49},[635,637,642],{"text":636,"type":569},"A global cathode active materials deficit is due in 2028, according to ",{"text":638,"type":569,"marks":639},"Benchmark’s base case demand scenario",[640],{"type":584,"attrs":641},{"href":586,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},{"text":643,"type":569},". For tier 1 cathode materials, the only kind qualified to sell in Western markets, a global deficit could begin as early as 2024. ",{"type":564,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":569},"Even with the combined cathode active materials pool produced in the EU, US, and free trade partner countries, supply will make up just 64% of total EU and US demand in 2032. ",{"type":564,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[652],{"text":653,"type":569},"The shortfall could be even larger as cathodes made in partner countries may not end up being sold in the EU or US, meaning the EV industries there will still need at least some Chinese output.  ",{"type":564,"attrs":655,"content":656},{"textAlign":49},[657],{"type":658,"attrs":659},"image",{"id":49,"alt":660,"src":661,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":662},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/ccfaa53eac/bm-c3-cathode-demand-evolution.png",{},{"type":601,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"level":603,"textAlign":49},[666],{"text":667,"type":569},"2. The West can achieve greater autonomy from China but cannot exclude it completely",{"type":564,"attrs":669,"content":670},{"textAlign":49},[671,673,679],{"text":672,"type":569},"Policies such as the EU ",{"text":674,"type":569,"marks":675},"Critical Raw Materials Act",[676],{"type":584,"attrs":677},{"href":678,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/eu-increases-critical-mineral-recycling-targets-in-bid-to-increase-self-reliance",{"text":680,"type":569}," (CRMA) and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have sparked optimism in some quarters about the West’s ability to break its reliance on Chinese supply. ",{"type":564,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":569},"Assessing how far the Western cathode industry can reduce its reliance on China depends on how supply security is defined. ",{"type":564,"attrs":687,"content":688},{"textAlign":49},[689],{"text":690,"type":569},"The EU has been relatively open to Chinese investments into domestic capacity. The logic is that local supply, regardless of ownership, is less vulnerable to geopolitical or logistical disruptions than imports. ",{"type":564,"attrs":692,"content":693},{"textAlign":49},[694],{"text":695,"type":569},"In the US, supply security is more informed by national security concerns. Chinese investment into domestic supply chains represents an unacceptable concession to an economic and geopolitical rival. ",{"type":564,"attrs":697,"content":698},{"textAlign":49},[699,701,707],{"text":700,"type":569},"These two approaches to supply security reflect in forecast figures for supply ownership in the two regions. In the US, 12% of domestic cathode output is expected to be made by majority Chinese companies in 2032 compared to 27% of Europe-based cathode output, according to ",{"text":702,"type":569,"marks":703},"Benchmark’s Cathode Forecast",[704],{"type":584,"attrs":705},{"href":706,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/cathode/",{"text":708,"type":569},". ",{"type":564,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"textAlign":49},[712],{"text":713,"type":569},"A realistic assessment of the extent to which the West can build an independent cathode active materials industry also depends on how far upstream you’re willing to look. ",{"type":564,"attrs":715,"content":716},{"textAlign":49},[717],{"text":718,"type":569},"Chinese battery materials producers are already adapting to the IRA by setting up in free trade partner nations, meaning trade links between China and the West are being re-routed rather than severed completely. ",{"type":564,"attrs":720,"content":721},{"textAlign":49},[722],{"text":723,"type":569},"While the EU and US can certainly reach a lower level of reliance than it has today on Chinese cathode imports, the depth of their supply chain independence will ultimately depend on the amount of raw materials they can secure for their expanding midstreams.",{"type":564,"attrs":725,"content":726},{"textAlign":49},[727],{"type":658,"attrs":728},{"id":49,"alt":660,"src":729,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":730},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/7208159a32/bm-china-cathode-surplus.png",{},{"type":601,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"level":603,"textAlign":49},[734],{"text":735,"type":569},"3. China is gaining in innovation, not just scaling ",{"type":564,"attrs":737,"content":738},{"textAlign":49},[739],{"text":740,"type":569},"New cathode chemistries like novel cobalt-free batteries (NMx) and lithium manganese nickel oxide (LMNO) are generating immense industry interest as they promise longer range at lower costs while reducing the need for certain critical minerals like cobalt. ",{"type":564,"attrs":742,"content":743},{"textAlign":49},[744],{"text":745,"type":569},"It is clear that China leads on scaling lower-cost, lower-range chemistries but there is still a tendency to assume that the US and Europe hold an advantage in technological innovation. ",{"type":564,"attrs":747,"content":748},{"textAlign":49},[749],{"text":750,"type":569},"Innovation is difficult to measure. On the one hand, the EU and North America have a high density of niche startups pushing the technological boundaries of cathodes. Yet China is getting new chemistries to market much more quickly. Benchmark data shows that the only confirmed LMNO cathode materials project, for example, is in China, owned by Haili Lithium Battery.",{"type":564,"attrs":752,"content":753},{"textAlign":49},[754],{"text":755,"type":569},"China’s tendency to rush new chemistries to market results in more commercial failures. However, this trial-and-error approach can be valuable in refining technologies whose merit can only be assessed in real-world applications.",{"type":564,"attrs":757,"content":758},{"textAlign":49},[759],{"text":760,"type":569},"Western innovators by contrast are more cautious about bringing out new technologies, preferring them to undergo rigorous testing. For them, technical failure after rollout can bring capital risk and reputational loss.",{"type":564,"attrs":762,"content":763},{"textAlign":49},[764],{"text":765,"type":569},"What all this indicates is that the EU and US will increasingly have to contend not just with China’s manufacturing prowess but also its advances as an innovator. ","Declining prices and low demand have been major themes of the cathode active materials market this year. Benchmark’s Cathode Price Index has fallen by 58% year-to-date. Yet despite the slowdown, Benchmark still forecasts a 300 gigawatt hour (GWh) increase in year-on-year demand in 2023 and a supply deficit due by 2028. The sector is also […]",[768],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":769},{"job_title":555,"image":770,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},{"filename":557},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"6dcae19a-2f2b-49eb-bf5f-6f15760a8d2a\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[774],{"slug":775,"name":298},"cathode","private",{"id":49,"alt":660,"name":660,"focus":660,"title":660,"source":660,"filename":778,"copyright":660,"fieldtype":779,"meta_data":780,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/7d68af2799/bm-jars-li-carbonate-ni-sulfate-co-sulfate-cathode-2048x1365-1.jpg","asset",{"alt":660,"title":660,"source":660,"copyright":660},"Dec 05, 2023","5th December 2023",[],[],1782484952481]