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slowdown dampens 2023 EV battery demand outlook","china-slowdown-dampens-2023-ev-demand-outlook","article/china-slowdown-dampens-2023-ev-demand-outlook",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":571,"content":581,"excerpt":722,"featured":51,"reporter":723,"_editable":727,"component":728,"seo_title":553,"categories":729,"visibility":733,"author_company":49,"featured_image":734,"seo_description":722,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":739,"formattedArticleDate":740},"663b829a-7fc5-4f22-b6ee-1abd4f6c2ce6","2023-07-13 00:00",[560,563,566,568],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",{"slug":564,"name":565},"electric-vehicles","electric vehicles",{"slug":567,"name":567},"forecasts",{"slug":569,"name":570},"lithium-ion-batteries","lithium ion batteries",[572],{"slug":573,"name":574,"content":575},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":576,"image":577,"bio":579,"linkedin":580},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":578},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":582,"content":583},"doc",[584,601,614,619,624,629,634,639,644,653,660,673,685,690,695,702,707,712,717],{"type":585,"attrs":586,"content":587},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[588,591,599],{"text":589,"type":590},"Benchmark has revised down its forecast for China’s ","text",{"text":592,"type":590,"marks":593},"electric vehicle battery demand ",[594],{"type":595,"attrs":596},"link",{"href":597,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/lithium-ion-batteries/reports/","url",{"text":600,"type":590},"for this year by 14% due to an economic slowdown in the country. ",{"type":585,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604,606,612],{"text":605,"type":590},"EV battery demand in China is set to be around 407 gigawatt hours this year, down from an earlier forecast of 473 GWh, according to Benchmark’s ",{"text":607,"type":590,"marks":608},"Lithium Ion Battery Database",[609],{"type":595,"attrs":610},{"href":611,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/lithium-ion-batteries/",{"text":613,"type":590},". ",{"type":585,"attrs":615,"content":616},{"textAlign":49},[617],{"text":618,"type":590},"Although Chinese EV sales picked up in May and June, growth rates have fallen short of expectations at the outset of the year. May’s year-on-year EV passenger sales growth rate was 50%, compared to 113% in April and 97% in May 2022. ",{"type":585,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":590},"In June, sales increased by 20.5% year-over-year to 573,000 units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.",{"type":585,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":590},"“I would say this potentially signifies that China’s EV adoption is slowing down,” said Aran Waid, an analyst at Benchmark.",{"type":585,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":590},"Benchmark still expects a Chinese EV sales recovery in 2023 although later than expected in quarter three. Even then, however, sales will probably not reach the heights forecast a few months ago.",{"type":585,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":590},"Weak demand has worsened overcapacity in Chinese EV production. Benchmark now forecasts a 389 GWh surplus for the Chinese domestic market in 2023 compared to the 211 GWh surplus expected in the first quarter. ",{"type":585,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":590},"“This surplus will highlight the increased importance of export markets for cell suppliers if they are to maintain cell production levels,” Waid commented. ",{"type":585,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"type":648,"attrs":649},"image",{"id":49,"alt":650,"src":651,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":652},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/a65138a678/bm-chart-screenshot-16-1.png",{},{"type":654,"attrs":655,"content":657},"heading",{"level":656,"textAlign":49},4,[658],{"text":659,"type":590},"Chinese market struggles to recover",{"type":585,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663,665,671],{"text":664,"type":590},"Chinese EV sales fell at ",{"text":666,"type":590,"marks":667},"the end of 2022",[668],{"type":595,"attrs":669},{"href":670,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/lithium-prices-soften-for-first-time-in-seven-months-amid-demand-uncertainty",{"text":672,"type":590}," as the market prepared for the end of government consumer subsidies in January 2023. ",{"type":585,"attrs":674,"content":675},{"textAlign":49},[676,678,683],{"text":677,"type":590},"There were also ",{"text":679,"type":590,"marks":680},"market uncertainties",[681],{"type":595,"attrs":682},{"href":670,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":598},{"text":684,"type":590}," stemming from the Chinese government’s sudden decision to reverse its zero-COVID policy and re-open the economy starting in January.",{"type":585,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":590},"Yet 2023 opened with many market players anticipating EV demand would recover by the second quarter on the back of a general economic resurgence. ",{"type":585,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":590},"However, China’s economy has since struggled to regain its pre-pandemic momentum, resulting in weak EV sales persisting over the first half of 2023. This was despite fierce price competition between Chinese automakers to stimulate demand after government subsidies ended.",{"type":585,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698],{"type":648,"attrs":699},{"id":49,"alt":650,"src":700,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":701},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/212a9b38db/bm-chart-screenshot-14-2.png",{},{"type":654,"attrs":703,"content":704},{"level":656,"textAlign":49},[705],{"text":706,"type":590},"Revised expectations",{"type":585,"attrs":708,"content":709},{"textAlign":49},[710],{"text":711,"type":590},"In response to flagging EV sales, the Chinese government has extended purchase tax exemptions on electric vehicles and attempted to stimulate rural demand. On 21 June it announced renewed tax breaks for EV consumers amounting to 520 billion yuan ($73 billion) over four years.",{"type":585,"attrs":713,"content":714},{"textAlign":49},[715],{"text":716,"type":590},"Yet the Chinese EV boom during the pandemic had depended on a much more extensive support package. Without similar measures, baseline growth expectations for China’s EV market may need to be revised down more permanently.",{"type":585,"attrs":718,"content":719},{"textAlign":49},[720],{"text":721,"type":590},"“We may not see the same level of year-on-year growth as we saw in the last few years, when national subsidies were offered on top of tax exemptions,” Waid explained. ","Benchmark has revised down its forecast for China’s electric vehicle battery demand for this year by 14% due to an economic slowdown in the country. EV battery demand in China is set to be around 407 gigawatt hours this year, down from an earlier forecast of 473 GWh, according to Benchmark’s Lithium Ion Battery Database. […]",[724],{"slug":573,"name":574,"content":725},{"job_title":576,"image":726,"bio":579,"linkedin":580},{"filename":578},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"663b829a-7fc5-4f22-b6ee-1abd4f6c2ce6\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[730],{"slug":731,"name":732},"ev","EV","private",{"id":49,"alt":735,"name":650,"focus":650,"title":735,"source":650,"filename":736,"copyright":650,"fieldtype":737,"meta_data":738,"is_external_url":51},"BYD Han all-electric car showcased at the Paris Motor Show, France - October 17, 2022.","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/c51c41b576/bm-shutterstock-2216581469.jpg","asset",{"alt":735,"title":735,"source":650,"copyright":650},"Jul 13, 2023","13th July 2023",[],[],1792773912869]