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supply from Indonesia almost doubles, CMOC’s DRC output drives oversupply  – 2023 in review","cobalt-price-rout-deepens-in-2023-as-oversupply-weak-ncm-demand-looms-2023-in-review","article/cobalt-price-rout-deepens-in-2023-as-oversupply-weak-ncm-demand-looms-2023-in-review",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":811,"featured":50,"reporter":812,"_editable":816,"component":817,"seo_title":553,"categories":818,"visibility":824,"author_company":49,"featured_image":825,"seo_description":811,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":829,"formattedArticleDate":830},"58c47488-369e-4eee-8140-cb02a9448015","2023-12-20 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,595,608,613,623,628,635,648,660,669,674,679,684,695,716,721,731,736,741,746,758,763,768,788,795,806],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"Cobalt supply increased significantly in 2023, driven by China’s CMOC’s production increase at its Kisanfu mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).  ","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583,585,593],{"text":584,"type":579},"In April, the Chinese company and the DRC state-owned mining company Gecamines ",{"text":586,"type":579,"marks":587},"ended a ten-month dispute over royalty payments",[588],{"type":589,"attrs":590},"link",{"href":591,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/cobalt-stockpile-set-to-enter-market-as-cmoc-gecamines-drc-dispute-resolved","url",{"text":594,"type":579},".",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598,600,606],{"text":599,"type":579},"The DRC is responsible for 75% of the world’s output, with global cobalt supply expected to increase 17% this year compared to 2022, according to ",{"text":601,"type":579,"marks":602},"Benchmark’s Cobalt Forecast",[603],{"type":589,"attrs":604},{"href":605,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/cobalt/reports/",{"text":607,"type":579},". ",{"type":574,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":579},"Early in the year, China’s CMOC also revealed ambitious guidance for its Tenke Fungurume (TFM) and Kisanfu (KFM) mines in the DRC. TFM increased production and KFM began operations in the second quarter, bringing more cobalt supplies to the market when cobalt prices were already trading at low levels. ",{"type":574,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616,618,622],{"text":617,"type":579},"In addition, cobalt supply from Indonesia, the world’s second largest cobalt producer, nearly doubled in 2023, according to ",{"text":601,"type":579,"marks":619},[620],{"type":589,"attrs":621},{"href":605,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"text":607,"type":579},{"type":574,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":579},"“Obviously this increase in supply lowered prices but not as much as everyone thought. That’s because everyone knew this was coming and it had been baked into the cobalt price for quite some time,” said Spencer Ingall, analyst at Benchmark.",{"type":629,"attrs":630,"content":632},"heading",{"level":631,"textAlign":49},4,[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"Cobalt prices pull back",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638,640,646],{"text":639,"type":579},"Cobalt prices staged a steady retreat during most of 2023, as a combination of increased supply and weak ",{"text":641,"type":579,"marks":642},"downstream",[643],{"type":589,"attrs":644},{"href":645,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/ev-sales-growth-has-slowed-but-has-not-been-derailed",{"text":647,"type":579}," demand weighed on the market, pushing prices lower. ",{"type":574,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651,653,659],{"text":652,"type":579},"Cobalt metal prices have decreased 28.9% to $32,132 per tonne so far this year, while Chinese cobalt sulphate prices have declined 40.4% to RMB 31,000 ($4,340) per tonne. Cobalt hydroxide prices are down 44.3%, currently trading at $14,881 per tonne, according to the",{"text":654,"type":579,"marks":655}," Benchmark Cobalt Price Assessment",[656],{"type":589,"attrs":657},{"href":658,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/cobalt/reports/",{"text":594,"type":579},{"type":574,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"type":664,"attrs":665},"image",{"id":49,"alt":666,"src":667,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":668},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/46990135b5/bm-cobaltsulphateprices2023today.png",{},{"type":574,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":579},"Prices of cobalt declined across all grades assessed by Benchmark in 2023, as demand growth slowed. ",{"type":574,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677],{"text":678,"type":579},"“There has been a persistent downward trend throughout the year,” said Roman Aubry, analyst at Benchmark.",{"type":574,"attrs":680,"content":681},{"textAlign":49},[682],{"text":683,"type":579},"“Cobalt prices have fallen consistently. The main driver is the growing disparity in supply and demand, with supply continuing to increase and demand consistently failing to meet expectations.”",{"type":574,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"textAlign":49},[687,689,693],{"text":688,"type":579},"Cobalt metal prices slipped below the $15 per pound mark at least five times this year, according to the",{"text":654,"type":579,"marks":690},[691],{"type":589,"attrs":692},{"href":658,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"text":694,"type":579},". In comparison, between January 2020 and December 2022, cobalt prices had fallen below that threshold only four times.",{"type":574,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698,700,706,708,714],{"text":699,"type":579},"Cobalt staged brief rallies in July and November. China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB)",{"text":701,"type":579,"marks":702}," bought about 5,600 tonnes of cobalt",[703],{"type":589,"attrs":704},{"href":705,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-to-stockpile-cobalt-metal-after-prices-more-than-halve",{"text":707,"type":579}," metal in July and",{"text":709,"type":579,"marks":710}," announced plans to buy 3,100 tonnes of cobalt metal",[711],{"type":589,"attrs":712},{"href":713,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-plans-to-stockpile-cobalt-after-price-rout",{"text":715,"type":579}," from November through to April 2024. The move led to a temporary boost in sentiment in the domestic Chinese market.",{"type":574,"attrs":717,"content":718},{"textAlign":49},[719],{"text":720,"type":579},"The SRB typically waits to restock until market prices are near or at their floor, therefore, the latest buys were widely received as bullish for near-term prices.",{"type":574,"attrs":722,"content":723},{"textAlign":49},[724,726],{"text":725,"type":579},"Oversupply in the cobalt market is expected to continue in 2024, with demand for nickel cobalt manganese cathodes expected to remain weak. The cobalt supply surplus is expected to peak in 2024 and enter an era of deficit from 2027 onwards, according to the",{"text":727,"type":579,"marks":728}," Benchmark Cobalt Forecast.",[729],{"type":589,"attrs":730},{"href":605,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"type":574,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"textAlign":49},[734],{"text":735,"type":579},"Prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, but are forecast to adjust upwards as the market moves towards a deficit.",{"type":629,"attrs":737,"content":738},{"level":631,"textAlign":49},[739],{"text":740,"type":579},"Demand slows down, supply receives a boost",{"type":574,"attrs":742,"content":743},{"textAlign":49},[744],{"text":745,"type":579},"In 2023, battery demand did not grow as fast as some producers had anticipated. Spot demand for cobalt remained subdued for most of the year as existing inventories and long-term contracts met downstream needs. ",{"type":574,"attrs":747,"content":748},{"textAlign":49},[749,751,756],{"text":750,"type":579},"Even with weaker demand from the electric vehicle sector,",{"text":752,"type":579,"marks":753}," Benchmark is forecasting",[754],{"type":589,"attrs":755},{"href":605,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"text":757,"type":579}," total demand to have increased by 15% this year to just over 210,000 tonnes.",{"type":574,"attrs":759,"content":760},{"textAlign":49},[761],{"text":762,"type":579},"On the supply front, the resolution of CMOC’s dispute with Gecamines meant that its estimated 16,000 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide stockpile was ready to leave the DRC and enter the market.",{"type":574,"attrs":764,"content":765},{"textAlign":49},[766],{"text":767,"type":579},"Cobalt supply is expected to reach about 224,000 tonnes this year, and grow further to about 250,000 in 2024, according to Benchmark’s Cobalt Forecast. ",{"type":574,"attrs":769,"content":770},{"textAlign":49},[771,773,778,780,786],{"text":772,"type":579},"Cobalt output from the DRC increased by over 20% year-on-year with the vast majority of this coming from CMOC’s KFM mine, according to the",{"text":774,"type":579,"marks":775}," Benchmark Cobalt Forecast",[776],{"type":589,"attrs":777},{"href":605,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"text":779,"type":579},". CMOC had in November",{"text":781,"type":579,"marks":782}," provided guidance of producing",[783],{"type":589,"attrs":784},{"href":785,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/cobalt/cmocs-2023-cobalt-production-guidance-points-to-146-yoy-increase-benchmark-cobalt/",{"text":787,"type":579}," 50,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2023 including output from both TFM and KFM.",{"type":574,"attrs":789,"content":790},{"textAlign":49},[791],{"type":664,"attrs":792},{"id":49,"alt":666,"src":793,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":794},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/3d71bb17bd/bm-cmoc-cobalt-2023.png",{},{"type":574,"attrs":796,"content":797},{"textAlign":49},[798,804],{"text":799,"type":579,"marks":800},"Rival Glencore",[801],{"type":589,"attrs":802},{"href":803,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/cmoc-could-overtake-glencore-with-cobalt-production-boost",{"text":805,"type":579}," had in August said it had stockpiled cobalt in the first half of 2023, a move aimed at leveraging lower prices and lowering supplies to the market.",{"type":574,"attrs":807,"content":808},{"textAlign":49},[809],{"text":810,"type":579},"“Some producers can get around this by stockpiling cobalt. Glencore has certainly started doing this and has plans to do this over the next year. As the price gets tighter, it gets harder to make significant margins. But not everyone is able to get out as unscathed as Glencore,” said Aubry.","Cobalt supply increased significantly in 2023, driven by China’s CMOC’s production increase at its Kisanfu mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In April, the Chinese company and the DRC state-owned mining company Gecamines ended a ten-month dispute over royalty payments. The DRC is responsible for 75% of the world’s output, with global cobalt […]",[813],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":814},{"job_title":565,"image":815,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"58c47488-369e-4eee-8140-cb02a9448015\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[819,821],{"slug":820,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":822,"name":823},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":666,"name":666,"focus":666,"title":666,"source":666,"filename":826,"copyright":666,"fieldtype":827,"meta_data":828,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/7fba52e9ba/bm-cobalt-harry-fisher.jpg","asset",{"alt":666,"title":666,"source":666,"copyright":666},"Dec 20, 2023","20th December 2023",[],[],1789982579867]