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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":704,"relatedVideos":705},114844013527039,"7562c39f-4f26-4dc8-96be-e8eb533ef172","Cobalt surplus risks widening as CMOC surpasses Q1 guidance ","cobalt-surplus-risks-widening-as-cmoc-surpasses-q1-guidance","article/cobalt-surplus-risks-widening-as-cmoc-surpasses-q1-guidance",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":559,"content":569,"excerpt":680,"featured":51,"reporter":681,"_editable":685,"component":686,"seo_title":543,"categories":687,"visibility":696,"author_company":49,"featured_image":697,"seo_description":680,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":702,"formattedArticleDate":703},"d403d6d1-c575-44a2-a667-8494ebb78284","2024-05-03 00:00",[550,553,556],{"slug":551,"name":552},"china","China",{"slug":554,"name":555},"cmoc","CMOC",{"slug":557,"name":558},"drc","DRC",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":563},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":564,"image":565,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":566},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":570,"content":571},"doc",[572,579,584,589,594,601,606,611,616,621,642,647,652,657,662,675],{"type":573,"attrs":574,"content":575},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[576],{"text":577,"type":578},"The cobalt market is facing the prospect of being inundated with a gut of new supply this year, as leading producer CMOC last week published first quarter cobalt production results that far outstripped its previous guidance.","text",{"type":573,"attrs":580,"content":581},{"textAlign":49},[582],{"text":583,"type":578},"The Chinese miner announced it had achieved first quarter cobalt production of over 25,000 tonnes – a record 392% year-on-year increase – across the Tenke Fungurume (TFM) and Kisanfu (KFM) mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The results significantly outperform September 2023 guidance, which had projected full year cobalt output of 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes in 2024.",{"type":573,"attrs":585,"content":586},{"textAlign":49},[587],{"text":588,"type":578},"Were CMOC to sustain first quarter production on an annualised rate, cobalt output across TFM and KFM could climb to over 100,000 in 2024 – an increase of up to 68% on its previous projections. In this scenario, Benchmark analysis indicates the cobalt supply surplus could breach 60,000 tonnes this year, with the Chinese miner alone accounting for 59% of demand from the lithium ion battery sector. ",{"type":573,"attrs":590,"content":591},{"textAlign":49},[592],{"text":593,"type":578},"“The cobalt market is already full of stocks,” said Will Talbot, principal cobalt analyst at Benchmark. “If CMOC were to carry on at this rate of production, we’d see other producers forced to reduce their output.”",{"type":595,"attrs":596,"content":598},"heading",{"level":597,"textAlign":49},4,[599],{"text":600,"type":578},"Can the market absorb more cobalt?",{"type":573,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604],{"text":605,"type":578},"While CMOC reported in November 2023 that it was “striving to exceed production,” the size of the uplift has blindsided many in the cobalt market. ",{"type":573,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":578},"A growing dichotomy in copper and cobalt fundamentals is adding further pressure to a cobalt sector already facing structural oversupply until 2027. Bullish copper prices and an emerging squeeze on copper concentrate supply is providing strong incentives for miners in Africa’s copper belt to increase output of the red metal.",{"type":573,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":578},"A cobalt supply response already appears to be materialising. Glencore announced in late April that cobalt production fell by 37% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, although the Swiss miner affirmed its full year production guidance of 35,000 to 40,000 tonnes of cobalt.",{"type":573,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619],{"text":620,"type":578},"“CMOC’s results add to what is already very bearish sentiment in the cobalt market,” said Roman Aubrey, cobalt price analyst at Benchmark. “We’ve seen hydroxide prices in April fall back to where they were at the start of the year due to oversupply, and this downturn may be further exacerbated by the recent [CMOC] production figures.”",{"type":573,"attrs":622,"content":623},{"textAlign":49},[624,626,634,636],{"text":625,"type":578},"The cobalt hydroxide supply overhang is creating downward pressure on cobalt prices across the board. In April ",{"text":627,"type":578,"marks":628},"Cobalt chemical prices",[629],{"type":630,"attrs":631},"link",{"href":632,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":633},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/cobalt/portal/","url",{"text":635,"type":578}," fell to their lowest level since Benchmark began assessing the market in January 2017, according to ",{"text":637,"type":578,"marks":638},"Benchmark’s Cobalt Price Assessment.",[639],{"type":630,"attrs":640},{"href":641,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":633},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/cobalt/portal/?tab=table",{"type":573,"attrs":643,"content":644},{"textAlign":49},[645],{"text":646,"type":578},"“Despite these challenges, the market may have already priced in some expectations that CMOC would exceed production guidance,” added Aubrey. “If that’s the case, the near term price impact from the announcement could be minimised.”",{"type":595,"attrs":648,"content":649},{"level":597,"textAlign":49},[650],{"text":651,"type":578},"Copper key to CMOC expansions",{"type":573,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":49},[655],{"text":656,"type":578},"The Chinese miner is now the world’s largest producer of cobalt by output, having surpassed Glencore in 2023, and appears to be targeting a position as a top 10 copper producer globally. First quarter copper production reached 147,500 tonnes, an increase of 123% year-on-year.",{"type":573,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":578},"“The Q1 figures do not marry up with their previous guidance at all,” said Piotr Ortonowski, head of copper analysis at Benchmark.“Production is already way over. If CMOC were to hit guidance now, it would signify a huge drop in output over the remainder of the year which is unlikely to happen.”",{"type":573,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[665,667,673],{"text":666,"type":578},"Behind this unprecedented supply growth are dynamics at play beyond the cobalt market. Benchmark analysts attribute CMOC’s overperformance to ",{"text":668,"type":578,"marks":669},"bullish fundamentals in the copper market",[670],{"type":630,"attrs":671},{"href":672,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":633},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/benchmark-shares-7-key-takeaways-from-cesco-week-santiago",{"text":674,"type":578}," and a drive from the Chinese government to secure its own copper resources.",{"type":573,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":578},"“At the moment CMOC doesn’t care about cobalt prices,” said Ortonwski. “This is a push from the Chinese government to safeguard copper supply as it nears self-sufficiency in copper smelting capacity.”","The cobalt market is facing the prospect of being inundated with a gut of new supply this year, as leading producer CMOC last week published first quarter cobalt production results that far outstripped its previous guidance. The Chinese miner announced it had achieved first quarter cobalt production of over 25,000 tonnes – a record 392% […]",[682],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":683},{"job_title":564,"image":684,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},{"filename":566},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"d403d6d1-c575-44a2-a667-8494ebb78284\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[688,690,693],{"slug":689,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":691,"name":692},"copper","Copper",{"slug":694,"name":695},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":698,"name":698,"focus":698,"title":698,"source":698,"filename":699,"copyright":698,"fieldtype":700,"meta_data":701,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/7fba52e9ba/bm-cobalt-harry-fisher.jpg","asset",{"alt":698,"title":698,"source":698,"copyright":698},"May 03, 2024","3rd May 2024",[],[],1786712396474]