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UNDER SIEGE","cobalt-under-siege","article/cobalt-under-siege",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":713,"featured":50,"reporter":714,"_editable":718,"component":719,"seo_title":553,"categories":720,"visibility":729,"author_company":49,"featured_image":730,"seo_description":713,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":735,"formattedArticleDate":736},"e5a0bc07-63a9-4a69-827e-6fb24e6517fc","2019-05-12 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,612,619,624,629,634,639,644,649,652,657,662,671,676,681,686,691,696,701,708],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"Cobalt is under siege as production targets are not met and prices continue to fall following a 65% y-o-y plummet in the battery metal price during the past 12 months","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"In February ERG announced it would place its Boss Mining operation on care and maintenance and suspend the company’s Chambishi refinery in Zambia.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"The suspension of ERG’s Chambishi refinery in Zambia came shortly after the Zambian government imposed a 5% import tax on copper and cobalt concentrates.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"Although this sounds dramatic, the suspension of the Chambishi refinery had been expected for some time and will have a limited impact on production numbers, having produced 2,000 tonnes of cobalt metal in 2018.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"Although there has been no official confirmation of how long the suspension will last, at the time of the suspension it was understood that ERG were continuing to pay workers, which suggests it will not be for an extended period.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"The Chambishi refinery uses feedstock from ERG’s Boss Mining operation which went on care and maintenance at the end of Q1 2019. Care and maintenance is a costly undertaking but a cheaper option than closing the mine altogether. The mine is expected to reopen although a timeframe has yet to be set out.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608,610],{"text":609,"type":579},"Benchmark Minerals ",{"text":611,"type":579},"estimates that in 2018 ERG’s Boss project produced approximately 2,500 tonnes of cobalt contained in concentrate which represents less than 2% of the global market.",{"type":574,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615,617],{"text":616,"type":579},"The Boss mine is known to have been running low on oxide ore for some time. With only sulphide deposits remaining at the mine the project will require newly installed equipment to process it,",{"text":618,"type":579},"which will require both capital and time to put into action.",{"type":574,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":579},"However, with the recent imposition of higher royalties introduced to the new 2018 mining code in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which increased from 3% to 10%, an investment decision will have to be made as to whether the Boss mine will transition to sulphide.",{"type":574,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":579},"As the DRC forms a new coalition between Kabila’s Common Front for Congo (FCC) and President Tshisekedi’s Cap pour le Changement (Coalition for Change, CACH), the cobalt market remains politically exposed.",{"type":574,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":579},"Significant lobbying of the government from the country’s mining community is expected to continue, however, for the moment the government has said there will be no more debate on this mining royalty.",{"type":574,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":579},"Having suspended the mine and postponed their investment decision on the transition from oxide to sulphide, ERG could use their position to bargain an improved deal with the DRC government.",{"type":574,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":579},"ERG will now rely on its DRC RTR project for new cobalt supply for 2019. ERG have previously stated intentions to ramp production to the full phase 1 capacity 14,000 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide as quickly as possible, although this may be under question in the current pricing environment.",{"type":574,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":579},"However, the RTR mine is not yet producing commercial volumes of cobalt as it’s understood that it began commissioning of its uranium removal circuit in February. Assuming this operates without issues then commercial volumes of cobalt from the project should be expected towards the end of Q2 2019.",{"type":574,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":49},[655],{"text":656,"type":579},"GLENCORE PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY",{"type":574,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":579},"ERG’s Boss Mining outfit is not the only DRC producer failing to meet expectations. Katanga Mining (KCC), a Glencore subsidiary, was initially expected to produce 34,000 tonnes of cobalt contained in hydroxide in 2019, but has yet to export any commercial volumes to the market.",{"type":574,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[665,667,669],{"text":666,"type":579},"The project has delayed exports due to elevated levels of uranium in the product and will need to undertake uranium removal following the commissioning of the project’s ion exchange system before it can export. ",{"text":668,"type":579},"Benchmark ",{"text":670,"type":579},"therefore doesn’t expect Katanga’s material to reach the market before 2020.",{"type":574,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":579},"Glencore’s main DRC asset, the Mutanda mine – the world’s largest cobalt mine in 2018 – made a significant cut of approximately 2,000 expatriate workers in February, which has prompted fears of falling cobalt volumes from the project.",{"type":574,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":579},"Oxide ores at the mine are known to have been prematurely depleting for some time. As with ERG’s Boss Mining the project will need to invest in sulphide processing facilities at Mutanda to transition from oxide to sulphide. Increased royalty payments, downward pressure on cobalt prices and political uncertainty in the DRC will weigh heavily on this decision.",{"type":574,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":579},"In their preliminary results call at the end of February, Glencore confirmed copper production at the mine would be reduced by 50% to 100,000 tonnes in 2019 but suggested cobalt production would only fall by 2,300 tonnes from 2018 production to 25,000 tonnes. It is still unclear how Glencore will maintain relatively stable cobalt numbers when copper production and processing is set to drop so dramatically.",{"type":574,"attrs":687,"content":688},{"textAlign":49},[689],{"text":690,"type":579},"NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM",{"type":574,"attrs":692,"content":693},{"textAlign":49},[694],{"text":695,"type":579},"It isn’t all bad news for the cobalt market, however, as towards the end of the quarter there were signs that the bottom of the market was being reached as cobalt metal prices began to recover slightly under increased trading activity.",{"type":574,"attrs":697,"content":698},{"textAlign":49},[699],{"text":700,"type":579},"Cobalt prices have had a torrid 12 months, with the year-on-year cobalt battery metal price down by 65% during the period. However, there were tentative signs of a recovery in the final week of the quarter with market players noting more enquiries and price increases.",{"type":574,"attrs":702,"content":703},{"textAlign":49},[704,706],{"text":705,"type":579},"It is still too early to tell whether these reported",{"text":707,"type":579},"price increases will be sustained and continue into a full recovery but it appears to be a chance for the market to stabilise, with the prospect of slightly higher prices as pent up buying activity increases.",{"type":574,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":579},"Although this is not to say there are no headwinds likely to further affect prices, as there are large reserves of feedstock in the DRC and South Africa that will likely hamper any price increases in the near-term.","Cobalt is under siege as production targets are not met and prices continue to fall following a 65% y-o-y plummet in the battery metal price during the past 12 months In February ERG announced it would place its Boss Mining operation on care and maintenance and suspend the company’s Chambishi refinery in Zambia. The suspension […]",[715],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":716},{"job_title":565,"image":717,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"e5a0bc07-63a9-4a69-827e-6fb24e6517fc\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[721,724,726],{"slug":722,"name":723},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":725,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":727,"name":728},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":731,"name":731,"focus":731,"title":731,"source":731,"filename":732,"copyright":731,"fieldtype":733,"meta_data":734,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/d406e04075/bm-hill-houses-credit-teseum.jpg","asset",{"alt":731,"title":731,"source":731,"copyright":731},"May 12, 2019","12th May 2019",[],[],1790082849641]