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Does the US IRA give Indonesia to China?","column-does-the-us-ira-give-indonesia-to-china","article/column-does-the-us-ira-give-indonesia-to-china",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":572,"content":582,"excerpt":729,"featured":51,"reporter":730,"_editable":734,"component":735,"seo_title":553,"categories":736,"visibility":743,"author_company":49,"featured_image":744,"seo_description":729,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":749,"formattedArticleDate":750},"21ad6cef-fe5b-4bbd-aae5-2f1604d5e547","2022-10-28 00:00",[560,563,566,569],{"slug":561,"name":562},"indonesia","Indonesia",{"slug":564,"name":565},"inflation-reduction-act","Inflation Reduction Act",{"slug":567,"name":568},"opinion","Opinion",{"slug":570,"name":571},"usa","USA",[573],{"slug":574,"name":575,"content":576},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":577,"image":578,"bio":580,"linkedin":581},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":579},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":583,"content":584},"doc",[585,592,597,602,607,612,617,622,629,634,639,644,649,664,669,674,687,692,697,702,707,712,720],{"type":586,"attrs":587,"content":588},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[589],{"text":590,"type":591},"President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is already spurring the development of more localised electric vehicle battery supply chains in North America, as well as new global trade routes that bypass China or Chinese companies.","text",{"type":586,"attrs":593,"content":594},{"textAlign":49},[595],{"text":596,"type":591},"Given the current state of the US-China relationship it’s a safe bet that any tweaks in the implementation of the IRA are still likely to include prohibitions on the use of Chinese companies as “foreign entities of concern.”",{"type":586,"attrs":598,"content":599},{"textAlign":49},[600],{"text":601,"type":591},"Yet in its requirement that critical minerals be sourced from North America or free trade agreement countries, the IRA also risks handing China free access to resource-rich countries such as Indonesia that don’t have FTAs with the US.",{"type":586,"attrs":603,"content":604},{"textAlign":49},[605],{"text":606,"type":591},"That could further embed China’s dominance in certain sections of the battery supply chain, making it even harder for the West to catch up and negating some of the aims of the IRA.",{"type":586,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":591},"That’s because Indonesia is key to the energy transition – it not only will provide all the growth in nickel this decade, but it’s also set to be the world’s second-largest cobalt produced behind the Democratic Republic of Congo.",{"type":586,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":591},"Indonesia’s exports of critical minerals are set to reach $30 billion by 2030, overtaking its mainstay coal, according to the International Energy Agency.",{"type":586,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620],{"text":621,"type":591},"Does the US really want to give those resources to China and bow out of the country? And what does that mean for broader US goals of limiting China’s rise in South-East Asia and creating a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”?",{"type":623,"attrs":624,"content":626},"heading",{"level":625,"textAlign":49},4,[627],{"text":628,"type":591},"No EVs without Indonesia",{"type":586,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":591},"It will be difficult to meet North America’s nickel demand without Indonesia, which is set to produce over 1.3 million tonnes of nickel by the end of the decade thanks to around $30 billion of Chinese investment in the country.",{"type":586,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":591},"While Canadian nickel could theoretically meet half of North American battery demand by 2030, the battery industry will be competing with the plating industry and other premium end use markets.",{"type":586,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":591},"Deshnee Naidoo, Vale’s executive vice president of base metals, told the Financial Times Mining Summit last week that automakers “won’t have a choice” but to buy from Indonesia.",{"type":586,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":591},"Yet that puts US automakers in a bind – they will not be supported in buying from Indonesia by the IRA and US government, yet they may not be able to produce enough batteries to meet their goals if they don’t.",{"type":586,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[652,654,662],{"text":653,"type":591},"Indonesia is becoming a key node in the battery supply chain – and increasingly looking like a forward operating base for Chinese companies, with its industrial parks home to nickel processing, anode manufacturing, and ",{"text":655,"type":591,"marks":656},"lithium refining",[657],{"type":658,"attrs":659},"link",{"href":660,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":661},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/lopal-first-chinese-company-to-build-lfp-battery-cathode-plant-outside-of-china/","url",{"text":663,"type":591},". China is recreating its model at home in a foreign country.",{"type":586,"attrs":665,"content":666},{"textAlign":49},[667],{"text":668,"type":591},"Indonesia has been probably the most successful country in promoting a value-added strategy to maximise its nickel resources to become a “world production hub for electric vehicles,” as the country’s Ministry of Investment said in London this week. That’s been achieved by instituting export bans on the metal.",{"type":586,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":591},"Yet if incentivised by the US, Korean companies and others could also set up processing facilities in Indonesia to serve the North American battery market, with access to local nickel.",{"type":586,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677,679,685],{"text":678,"type":591},"Without a broader range of players in the country, Indonesia could potentially lose out on new ",{"text":680,"type":591,"marks":681},"ESG-friendly",[682],{"type":658,"attrs":683},{"href":684,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":661},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/automakers-esg-woes-grow-over-indonesian-nickel/",{"text":686,"type":591}," processing or production technologies, as well as clean energy investments to clean up its grid.",{"type":586,"attrs":688,"content":689},{"textAlign":49},[690],{"text":691,"type":591},"Instead, US investments may go elsewhere, as seen with the recent GM investment into Queensland Pacific Metals for nickel supply from Australia.",{"type":586,"attrs":693,"content":694},{"textAlign":49},[695],{"text":696,"type":591},"While many large western miners are unwilling to enter Indonesia due to what they see as high risks, companies including Eramet, Vale and BASF all have investments there.",{"type":586,"attrs":698,"content":699},{"textAlign":49},[700],{"text":701,"type":591},"Yet many are JVs with Chinese companies, including Eramet’s agreement with Tsingshan, and Vale’s with Huayou Cobalt. Even if Indonesia can be brought into the IRA-fold, will that align with its anti-China provisions?",{"type":586,"attrs":703,"content":704},{"textAlign":49},[705],{"text":706,"type":591},"As it currently stands Indonesia will want its resources to go to local battery production to serve local markets as well as Indonesian demand for electric vehicles. But beyond that the nickel will likely go to China.",{"type":586,"attrs":708,"content":709},{"textAlign":49},[710],{"text":711,"type":591},"That would be a missed opportunity for the West to not only help a developing country deal with climate change and benefit from the energy transistion, but also integrate the world’s fourth most populous country into Western supply chains.",{"type":586,"attrs":713,"content":714},{"textAlign":49},[715],{"text":716,"type":591,"marks":717},"By Henry Sanderson",[718],{"type":719},"italic",{"type":586,"attrs":721,"content":722},{"textAlign":49},[723],{"text":724,"type":591,"marks":725},"hsanderson@benchmarkminerals.com",[726],{"type":658,"attrs":727},{"href":728,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":661},"mailto:hsanderson@benchmarkminerals.com","President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is already spurring the development of more localised electric vehicle battery supply chains in North America, as well as new global trade routes that bypass China or Chinese companies. Given the current state of the US-China relationship it’s a safe bet that any tweaks in the implementation of the […]",[731],{"slug":574,"name":575,"content":732},{"job_title":577,"image":733,"bio":580,"linkedin":581},{"filename":579},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"21ad6cef-fe5b-4bbd-aae5-2f1604d5e547\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[737,740],{"slug":738,"name":739},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":741,"name":742},"geopolitics","Geopolitics","private",{"id":49,"alt":745,"name":745,"focus":745,"title":745,"source":745,"filename":746,"copyright":745,"fieldtype":747,"meta_data":748,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/fcbe1e1447/bm-credit-imo-e1571740886342.jpg","asset",{"alt":745,"title":745,"source":745,"copyright":745},"Oct 28, 2022","28th October 2022",[],[],1792773923452]