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Golden age for Chinese lithium companies may be coming to an end","column-golden-age-for-chinese-lithium-companies-may-be-coming-to-an-end","article/column-golden-age-for-chinese-lithium-companies-may-be-coming-to-an-end",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":566,"content":576,"excerpt":716,"featured":51,"reporter":717,"_editable":721,"component":722,"seo_title":553,"categories":723,"visibility":732,"author_company":49,"featured_image":733,"seo_description":716,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":737,"formattedArticleDate":738},"5ecd2880-42f8-4622-84aa-894dd52f448e","2022-11-11 00:00",[560,563],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",{"slug":564,"name":565},"opinion","Opinion",[567],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":570},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":571,"image":572,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":573},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":577,"content":578},"doc",[579,586,591,596,601,606,611,616,625,630,635,640,645,650,655,660,665,672,677,682,687,692,697,705],{"type":580,"attrs":581,"content":582},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":585},"The last decade was open season for Chinese lithium companies: from Australia to Chile they invested in some of the best global assets with little pushback or competition.","text",{"type":580,"attrs":587,"content":588},{"textAlign":49},[589],{"text":590,"type":585},"In 2012 Tianqi Lithium bought the Greenbushes lithium mine in Australia – the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposit. Australian authorities approved the deal. A few years later, it acquired shares in Chile’s SQM from a Canadian fertiliser company.",{"type":580,"attrs":592,"content":593},{"textAlign":49},[594],{"text":595,"type":585},"That welcome attitude lasted until relatively recently: in January, Canada’s Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne welcomed Zijin Mining’s $737 million deal for Neo Lithium saying “that no national security harm could arise” from it.",{"type":580,"attrs":597,"content":598},{"textAlign":49},[599],{"text":600,"type":585},"Yet Canada’s decision last week to force three Chinese companies to divest from three Canadian-based lithium companies has changed the game. It was a clear and stark message that the geopolitical terrain has changed. The Chinese companies were given 90 days to sell down their stakes.",{"type":580,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604],{"text":605,"type":585},"As the US advances with its plan to create clean energy supply chains that don’t involve China via the Inflation Reduction Act, Chinese lithium companies can expect more competition globally – and more scrutiny.",{"type":580,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":585},"Why wouldn’t western lithium companies now overpay for lithium assets in free trade agreement countries, given the tax credits their customers will get from the Inflation Reduction Act? And will other countries follow Canada’s lead to align with the US?",{"type":580,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":585},"Investors already predict the tide may be turning. US lithium producer Albemarle now has a market capitalisation greater than either Tianqi and Ganfeng, at $37 billion. In 2021, Ganfeng’s market cap alone surpassed that of Albemarle’s.",{"type":580,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619],{"type":620,"attrs":621},"image",{"id":49,"alt":622,"src":623,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":624},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/405fbabed9/bm-china-europe-us-competition-lithium.png",{},{"type":580,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":585},"If Chinese companies find it more difficult to acquire global assets, it will make the country ever more reliant on Australia for lithium feedstock, just as China is reliant on the country for supplies of iron ore.",{"type":580,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":585},"China may have a dominant position in the production of batteries and electric vehicles but it relies on imports of lithium to make that possible. Just as imports of iron ore sustain the country’s industrial economy, so lithium sustains its gigantic clean energy industry and the jobs and growth that come from it.",{"type":580,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":585},"For all of Xi Jinping’s talk of self-sufficiency and self-reliance at the recent 20th Communist Party Congress this is a fundamental strategic weakness for China.",{"type":580,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":585},"China will need to continue to heavily invest in African and domestic resources to fill the gap. You can bet that the internal political pressure for Chinese lithium companies to invest in domestic mines has now gone up another notch. Given they are low grade, this will make Chinese lithium companies less attractive to investors.",{"type":580,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":585},"Benchmark forecasts that lithium supply from China and Africa is set to grow by 360% this decade, thanks mostly to Chinese investment. Argentina is also likely to be open to Chinese investment – one country where Xi’s diplomacy as well as his Belt and Road Initiative looks successful.",{"type":580,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":585},"Yet that won’t be enough – just like iron ore, China will likely rely almost completely on Australia for supplies of lithium this decade. Today Australia is the world’s largest lithium producer and China the biggest buyer and refiner.",{"type":580,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":585},"Given the lithium refining capacity it is set to have by 2030, China is likely to require all of Australia’s supplies of lithium feedstock, according to Cameron Perks, an analyst at Benchmark.",{"type":580,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":585},"China’s reliance on Australia for iron ore has been a headache for years in Beijing. In lithium, the problem may just be getting started.",{"type":580,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"type":620,"attrs":669},{"id":49,"alt":622,"src":670,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":671},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/39702354ac/bm-china-feedstock.png",{},{"type":580,"attrs":673,"content":674},{"textAlign":49},[675],{"text":676,"type":585},"For Australia, it will be hard to replace China as a big customer, just as in iron ore. Sales of lithium to China, while much less than iron ore, still benefits the Australian economy. Who will replace that demand in the near-term? Processing capacity outside of China will take time to build up as will cathode production.",{"type":580,"attrs":678,"content":679},{"textAlign":49},[680],{"text":681,"type":585},"Such interdependence between China and Australia is uneasy but as a recent paper by Richard McGregor at the Lowy Institute points out it’s also a form of leverage – think of the power Russia has commanded from being a key supplier of gas to Europe. “It makes sense, then, for Australia to nurture this interdependence, both to benefit the Australian economy and to maintain leverage of its own,” he wrote.",{"type":580,"attrs":683,"content":684},{"textAlign":49},[685],{"text":686,"type":585},"China produces over 78% of the world’s battery cathodes and that’s not likely to change anytime soon, rising to 87% in 2030, according to Benchmark.",{"type":580,"attrs":688,"content":689},{"textAlign":49},[690],{"text":691,"type":585},"Canada’s action has closed off one potential avenue for China to acquire new lithium resources. The US will also try to influence other countries to do the same.",{"type":580,"attrs":693,"content":694},{"textAlign":49},[695],{"text":696,"type":585},"As China’s options narrow globally it looks increasingly like the country is being driven ever closer into Australia’s arms.",{"type":580,"attrs":698,"content":699},{"textAlign":49},[700],{"text":701,"type":585,"marks":702},"By Henry Sanderson",[703],{"type":704},"italic",{"type":580,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"text":709,"type":585,"marks":710},"hsanderson@benchmarkminerals.com",[711],{"type":712,"attrs":713},"link",{"href":714,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":715},"mailto:hsanderson@benchmarkminerals.com","url","The last decade was open season for Chinese lithium companies: from Australia to Chile they invested in some of the best global assets with little pushback or competition. In 2012 Tianqi Lithium bought the Greenbushes lithium mine in Australia – the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposit. Australian authorities approved the deal. A few years […]",[718],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":719},{"job_title":571,"image":720,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},{"filename":573},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"5ecd2880-42f8-4622-84aa-894dd52f448e\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[724,727,730],{"slug":725,"name":726},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":728,"name":729},"geopolitics","Geopolitics",{"slug":731,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":49,"alt":622,"name":622,"focus":622,"title":622,"source":622,"filename":734,"copyright":622,"fieldtype":735,"meta_data":736,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/61c580cd5a/bm-chinese-lithium-image-1.jpg","asset",{"alt":622,"title":622,"source":622,"copyright":622},"Nov 11, 2022","11th November 2022",[],[],1792773923113]