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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":701,"relatedVideos":702},112469259383932,"984a5236-2ecc-4561-a44c-459e573aa845","Copper prices hit record highs in H1 2024 – what were the key drivers?","copper-prices-hit-record-highs-in-h1-2024-what-were-the-key-drivers","article/copper-prices-hit-record-highs-in-h1-2024-what-were-the-key-drivers",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":556,"content":566,"excerpt":680,"featured":51,"reporter":681,"_editable":685,"component":686,"seo_title":543,"categories":687,"visibility":694,"author_company":49,"featured_image":695,"seo_description":680,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":699,"formattedArticleDate":700},"ad7054fa-0c14-4246-ad2b-52d66c331dd0","2024-07-19 00:00",[550,553],{"slug":551,"name":552},"china","China",{"slug":554,"name":555},"copper-prices","copper prices",[557],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":560},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":561,"image":562,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":563},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":567,"content":568},"doc",[569,576,581,588,593,598,607,612,617,630,635,640,645,650,655,660,665,670,675],{"type":570,"attrs":571,"content":572},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[573],{"text":574,"type":575},"Copper experienced a powerful price rally during the first half of 2024, briefly breaching $11,000 tonne to reach record highs in May. While prices have since retreated, sitting over $1,000 below their peak, they remain 11% higher than at the start of the year.","text",{"type":570,"attrs":577,"content":578},{"textAlign":49},[579],{"text":580,"type":575},"In this article, Benchmark examines the path that took the copper prices to this point and what’s in store for the market during the second half of the year.",{"type":582,"attrs":583,"content":585},"heading",{"level":584,"textAlign":49},4,[586],{"text":587,"type":575},"Supply shock ignites rally",{"type":570,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":575},"Underpinning the price rally was an unprecedented series of supply disruptions across late 2023 and early 2024, taking close to 1 million tonnes of copper supply out of the 2024 market balance, and shifting it into a projected deficit.",{"type":570,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":575},"“The copper market has certainly turned out to be quite a surprise this year,” said Piotr Ortonowski, lead copper analyst at Benchmark. “If we rewind to the second half of 2023, the consensus then was that strong mine supply growth would plunge the market into a pronounced surplus this year.”",{"type":570,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601],{"type":602,"attrs":603},"image",{"id":49,"alt":604,"src":605,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":606},"","https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeHcxpupgga-El-Nr-FX81aArWA3A231jaJC62ZfwxaOKKgqccPUqVlbV1bUj9Vbvx9rejW-Ikxg4RTH8ss4q5JQTn0064dNliw6fQF-jfMbtcix4VICot8JghNxLUC7gPq_8-dUPP0HqEsLbVsXN5MXhQK?key=qiwyx6Fo7O9lE4K3lJwzug",{},{"type":570,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":575},"The impact of this supply shortfall was felt immediately in the copper concentrate market – the raw material intermediate product that is processed by smelters – which led the Chinese processors to announce coordinated production cuts.",{"type":570,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":575},"As the Chinese smelting industry scrambled for concentrate supply, copper caught the attention of the investment community. Speculative money flooded the London Metal Exchange (LME) in May, pushing copper prices to a new all-time high of over $11,000 per tonne. A short squeeze followed in the US, elevating the COMEX price even further.",{"type":570,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620,622],{"text":621,"type":575},"Tight concentrate supply and increased smelting capacity caused spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for Chinese smelters to collapse to record lows of near-zero in the first half of the year, as production cuts ",{"text":623,"type":575,"marks":624},"proved slow to materialise.",[625],{"type":626,"attrs":627},"link",{"href":628,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":629},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/benchmark-shares-key-copper-insights-from-lme-asia-week-2024","url",{"type":570,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":575},"As the year progresses, mine production continues to underperform: both Rio Tinto and Chile’s Antofagasta Minerals announced in July that they expect their 2024 production to come in at the bottom end of guidance, while Codelco now appears unlikely to hit its 2024 target.",{"type":570,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":575},"Two Chinese smelters recently announced production cuts of between 20-40% next year, due to the ongoing imbalance between mined copper supply and smelting capacity. Signals of production cuts in China will most likely prove supportive for TC/RCs over the remainder of the year, particularly heading towards the start of long-term contract negotiations in October.",{"type":582,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"level":584,"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":575},"Copper market awaits signals of Chinese economic stimulus",{"type":570,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":575},"While supply-side disruptions wrought havoc for China’s smelting industry – creating the conditions necessary for copper prices to rally to a record high in May – industrial demand indicators in the world’s second largest economy performed relatively weakly during the first half of 2024.",{"type":570,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":575},"“The key cause for concern right now is China. In spite of all of the supply disruptions, we have thus far seen very little evidence of a copper shortage in the world’s top copper-consuming nation,” said Ortonowski.",{"type":570,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":575},"“Quite the opposite in fact. We have observed a counter-seasonal stock-build and deeply negative import premiums,” he added.",{"type":570,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":575},"China’s protracted property crisis, an industry accounting for around 20% of end-use demand, is a major drag on copper demand. New home prices in China fell for the 13th consecutive month in June, and year-to-date floor space completions are down about 20% year-on-year.",{"type":570,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":575},"The market is now awaiting the outcome of China’s Third Plenum Session this week, where additional economic stimulus measures to boost the struggling construction sector and lacklustre domestic spending are expected to be announced.",{"type":570,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":575},"As such, demand from China is expected to improve in the second half of the year, supported further by robust demand from the grid, renewable energy, and electric vehicles (EVs) year-to-date.",{"type":570,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":575},"Conversely, the increasing likelhood of Donald Trump returning to the US presidency is seen as a negative for copper prices, given the policy uncertainty stemming former president’s anti-renewable stance and the prospect of more punitive trade measures against Chinese goods.","Copper experienced a powerful price rally during the first half of 2024, briefly breaching $11,000 tonne to reach record highs in May. While prices have since retreated, sitting over $1,000 below their peak, they remain 11% higher than at the start of the year. In this article, Benchmark examines the path that took the copper […]",[682],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":683},{"job_title":561,"image":684,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},{"filename":563},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"ad7054fa-0c14-4246-ad2b-52d66c331dd0\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[688,691],{"slug":689,"name":690},"copper","Copper",{"slug":692,"name":693},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":604,"name":604,"focus":604,"title":604,"source":604,"filename":696,"copyright":604,"fieldtype":697,"meta_data":698,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/5222d00d80/bm-glencore-copper-anodes-at-lomas-bayas-chile.jpg","asset",{"alt":604,"title":604,"source":604,"copyright":604},"Jul 19, 2024","19th July 2024",[],[],1783010343422]