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update: global battery supply chain prepares for challenging months ahead","coronavirus-update-global-battery-supply-chain-prepares-for-challenging-months-ahead","article/coronavirus-update-global-battery-supply-chain-prepares-for-challenging-months-ahead",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":726,"featured":50,"reporter":727,"_editable":731,"component":732,"seo_title":553,"categories":733,"visibility":737,"author_company":49,"featured_image":738,"seo_description":726,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":743,"formattedArticleDate":744},"47097a8d-ac38-40db-8a4c-d8ccc12d5090","2020-03-25 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"covid","COVID",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,590,595,610,615,620,625,630,635,640,645,650,655,660,665,670,675,680,691,696,701,706,711,716,721],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"As the coronavirus — COVID-19 —is now a global pandemic and China is no longer the epicentre of the outbreak, supply chains worldwide are under threat from developments of this disease. What started as a supply shock in China is now becoming a global demand-side issue affecting the entire lithium ion battery supply chain. However, some regions are more affected than others and China is already showing early signs of bouncing back.","text",{"type":584,"attrs":585,"content":587},"heading",{"level":586,"textAlign":49},4,[588],{"text":589,"type":582},"Upstream constraints",{"type":577,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":582},"From an upstream supply perspective, the main issue has been a logistics slowdown. Within China there have been continued bans and delays on transporting goods resulting in difficulties in both receiving raw materials and delivering finished products to customers.",{"type":577,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598,600,608],{"text":599,"type":582},"However, to date there has been no significant battery raw material or anode and cathode material supply shortages. This is partly due to existing oversupply from 2019, ",{"text":601,"type":582,"marks":602},"for instance Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast indicates up to 50,000 tonnes LCE of spodumene stocks were carried over from 2019 into 2020",[603],{"type":604,"attrs":605},"link",{"href":606,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":607},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/australias-spodumene-backlog-sparks-2020-cutbacks","url",{"text":609,"type":582},".",{"type":577,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":582},"This oversupply from last year, along with operations ramping up output (although not at full capacity utilisation rates in most cases), means that supply should be able to meet demand in the near-term, but concerns are now escalating over possible limitations to ex-China production in the coming weeks.",{"type":577,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":582},"The global crisis will now affect all stages of the battery supply chain. Discussing developments in cobalt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo Caspar Rawles, Head of Price Assessments, said: “Whilst we are starting to see larger numbers of confirmed cases of coronavirus across Africa, the impact to the cobalt supply chain so far has been, limited as logistics have continued to function in the region. Key areas to watch for potential disruption will be further border or port closures in South Africa alongside the impact of the recently announced lockdown, or a more extended lockdown than the recently imposed one in Haut-Katanga (the cobalt producing region of the DRC).”",{"type":577,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":582},"He continued, “Although a complete ban on the movement and export of minerals for an extended period is unlikely, closures could see delays to shipments from either the DRC or South Africa to consumers in China, where domestic stocks are already running at low levels. This won’t create a problem whilst activity levels in the Chinese battery supply chain are still recovering but could see some short-term tightness if things ramp up quickly”",{"type":577,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":582},"In the lithium supply chain, we’ve now seen the first signs of the coronavirus fallout affecting Chile and Argentina, although the countries remain less affected than European and North American hotspots but cases are growing. A national mandatory quarantine in Argentina has seen both Livent and Orocobre suspend lithium brine operations until at least 31 March.",{"type":584,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"level":586,"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":582},"Downstream concerns",{"type":577,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":582},"While restrictions on supply chains are set to worsen in most regions, the expected rebound in China in Q2 will have an important role in propping up 2020 demand.",{"type":577,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":582},"As seen after other external shocks to China’s economic output, there is typically a fast correction in the market following a slowdown and this will likely prevail in the battery sector throughout Q3 and especially into H2 2020.",{"type":577,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":582},"In addition, there are already rumours of stimulus programmes being put in place to bolster electric vehicle (EV) demand through extended subsidies (which have already been announced in Guangzhou) and a major revamp of public transportation systems country-wide.",{"type":577,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":582},"What was meant to be the year battery demand diversified outside China may now see China play a more important role than ever before.",{"type":577,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":582},"Although anode, cathode and battery cell production continues in other major markets such as Japan and Korea, producers are already preparing for slower than expected demand from EVs and portables. And with the peak of the outbreak still ahead for many western economies, concern over the length of the slowdown increase by the day.",{"type":577,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":582},"While we are yet to see downstream users reduce their orders, there is very limited spot activity across the supply chain, with global uncertainties making Chinese growth increasingly critical.",{"type":577,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":582},"A consequence of this could be an accelerated consolidation of anode and cathode suppliers. With lower than expected demand from outside of China, Tier 2 and 3 producers are likely to face increasing competition from Tier 1 Chinese suppliers.",{"type":584,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"level":586,"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":582},"Global response",{"type":577,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":582},"Q1 2020 will have seen a substantial EV demand globally. In China alone, EV sales were down -54% in January and -76% in February year-on-year, although it is worth noting that output was still relatively stable compared with 2018 levels.",{"type":577,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683,689],{"text":684,"type":582,"marks":685},"China’s government had already indicated at the start of the year that there would be no significant subsidy cut in 2020",[686],{"type":604,"attrs":687},{"href":688,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":607},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-suggests-no-significant-nev-subsidy-cut-in-2020-but-the-industry-must-prepare-regardless",{"text":690,"type":582},", and considering the fallout from coronavirus we expect this to remain the case. Subsidies could in fact be extended in certain regions as part of a stimulus effort expected over the coming months.",{"type":577,"attrs":692,"content":693},{"textAlign":49},[694],{"text":695,"type":582},"It is now very unlikely that the Chinese government’s target of 2 million new energy vehicle (NEV) sales will now be met this year, but the fall in demand may not be as drastic as many feared at the height of the coronavirus in the country.",{"type":577,"attrs":697,"content":698},{"textAlign":49},[699],{"text":700,"type":582},"This is important because China is the biggest electric vehicle consumer globally, with over 1 million BEV and PHEV sales in 2019, compared with Europe’s 400,000 over the same period according to data from Rho Motion.",{"type":577,"attrs":702,"content":703},{"textAlign":49},[704],{"text":705,"type":582},"Europe of course is lining up to be the next EV hub, and the growth to 16 battery megafactories in the pipeline is testament to this. However, sudden coronavirus developments across the continent have seen auto production shutting down, with shutdowns announced from companies including PSA, Volkswagen BMW and Toyota.",{"type":577,"attrs":707,"content":708},{"textAlign":49},[709],{"text":710,"type":582},"Europe’s EV demand for the year will therefore significantly underperform previous expectations, but if the peak of the outbreak were to be reached by summer, it’s feasible that we could expect economic growth in H2 and there are also hopes that EVs will take a central focus in the inevitable economic stimulus efforts that will follow. However, with the ongoing uncertainty and rapidly changing situation this will only become clear as the crisis unfolds in the coming weeks.",{"type":577,"attrs":712,"content":713},{"textAlign":49},[714],{"text":715,"type":582},"Despite the bleak outlook, global EV demand should be bolstered by what is likely to be a smaller than expected fall off in Chinese market. While European demand will take a significant hit, currently it represents a smaller proportion of total EV sales albeit with greater growth prospects.",{"type":577,"attrs":717,"content":718},{"textAlign":49},[719],{"text":720,"type":582},"As countries globally announce stimulus packages to bolster battered economies, there are calls from industry and politicians to use the current crisis as an opportunity to advance new energy industries. As this crisis plays out over the coming months and weeks we will see whether a ‘green new deal’ emerges.",{"type":577,"attrs":722,"content":723},{"textAlign":49},[724],{"text":725,"type":582},"For now, however, it seems that while the supply chain continues to function, the year of EV diversification out of China will be put on hold as the global economy adjusts to a new reality.","As the coronavirus — COVID-19 —is now a global pandemic and China is no longer the epicentre of the outbreak, supply chains worldwide are under threat from developments of this disease. What started as a supply shock in China is now becoming a global demand-side issue affecting the entire lithium ion battery supply chain. However, […]",[728],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":729},{"job_title":568,"image":730,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"47097a8d-ac38-40db-8a4c-d8ccc12d5090\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[734],{"slug":735,"name":736},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":739,"name":739,"focus":739,"title":739,"source":739,"filename":740,"copyright":739,"fieldtype":741,"meta_data":742,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/08525874d8/bm-coronavirus-map.jpg","asset",{"alt":739,"title":739,"source":739,"copyright":739},"Mar 25, 2020","25th March 2020",[],[],1792688596040]