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nickel be the next battery raw material facing a supply cliff?","could-nickel-be-the-next-battery-raw-material-facing-a-supply-cliff","article/could-nickel-be-the-next-battery-raw-material-facing-a-supply-cliff",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":679,"featured":50,"reporter":680,"_editable":684,"component":685,"seo_title":553,"categories":686,"visibility":695,"author_company":49,"featured_image":696,"seo_description":679,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":701,"formattedArticleDate":702},"9cda3480-18b7-4106-b1ca-9b882f46711b","2018-10-16 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,612,619,624,629,634,639,644,649,654,659,664,669,674],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"By Andrew Leyland, Head of Forecasting & Consultancy","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"While the world seems settled that current and near-term lithium-ion battery investments will have time to fully depreciate ahead of any game-changing new technology, there remains more debate about what cathode formulations will be at the forefront of the market.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"The cost savings and relative thermal stability of 523 and 622 chemistries have made them the go-to, along with NCA, of the electric vehicle (EV) industry. However, increasingly positive announcements about the “commercialisation” of 811 have many forecasting that this will be the prevailing technology in the coming decade, offering greater energy density and yet lower costs.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"The reality, however, is that mass 811 adoption faces far greater challenges than the move to 622, with smaller cost savings than initial substitution away from 111 brought to the industry. The move to a cathode which is, broadly, eight parts nickel to one-part cobalt and one part manganese also means that the nickel market will have to absorb not just massive demand growth from EVs, but also marked substitution towards nickel at the expense of cobalt.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"Nickel sulphate consumed in lithium-ion batteries (excluding NiMH) is currently a relatively small proportion of the 2.3 million tonne nickel market, perhaps 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes in total, and significantly dwarfed by nickel’s main end-use of stainless steel, accounting for around 1.5-1.6 million tonnes.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"This is set to change. Our base case forecast has lithium-ion battery demand growing to a whopping 900,000 tonnes of nickel in the next decade – and this will have serious ramifications for the structure of the nickel market well beyond the battery industry.",{"type":606,"attrs":607,"content":609},"heading",{"level":608,"textAlign":49},6,[610],{"text":611,"type":579},"Not all nickel is created equal",{"type":574,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615,617],{"text":616,"type":579},"Nickel is produced and consumed in a variety of formats, commonly split into class 1 (pellets, briquettes, electrol",{"text":618,"type":579},"ytic nickel, cut cathodes and powders etc) and class 2 (nickel pig iron, ferro-nickel, nickel oxides and chemicals) products.",{"type":574,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":579},"It’s the class 1 type that has historically been used in the battery sector, either produced directly as a sulphate or converted from a metal product. Currently “class 1” accounts for around 1.1 million tonnes of production, leaving an even smaller market to absorb the expected demand growth.",{"type":574,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":579},"The other side of the equation is the potential for increased supply of nickel sulphate, there are already projects out there focused on battery grade nickel sulphate, such as Thakadu Group’s plan to beneficiate Lonmin’s by-product nickel from South African platinum mines. Furthermore, there have also been tests to convert nickel pig iron (NPI) into a nickel sulphate product. Although given the additional processing required it’s assumed this would at a comparatively high cost, and that this would see most NPI continue to flow into the stainless market.",{"type":574,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":579},"It’s possible that NPI production would also expand to meet any supply gap in stainless steel consumption. But this is likely to be fraught with risk given that both the key suppliers, the Philippines and Indonesia, have previously threatened NPI raw material exports for both environmental reasons, and because it adds relatively little economic value unless processed in the source country.",{"type":574,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":579},"That leaves more traditional sources of class 1 nickel, most likely from nickel laterite ores with a cobalt by-product to fill the gap. On the surface this sounds like a win-win combination in supplying the lithium-ion and EV market with both nickel and cobalt.",{"type":574,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":579},"The problem, as always, is financing. Nickel laterite operations have a chequered history when it comes to ramping up production successfully, the addition of high-pressure acid leaching also making them very capital intensive. This, coupled with several trips below the $10,000/tonne price level for nickel in the past three years makes investors rightly cautious. At least for now it appears that mining sector capital expenditure is continuing to favour copper, gold and low-cost, high-grade, iron ore developments at the expense of world-class nickel assets.",{"type":606,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"level":608,"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":579},"Stainless steel substitution",{"type":574,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[652],{"text":653,"type":579},"One potential way of squaring the circle is stainless steel substitution to lower nickel contents and to other materials. This is possible in many of the metal’s current applications, with the notable exceptions of dairy, medical and food preparation industries, where stainless’ bacterial and germ resistance properties often see legislation mandating its use.",{"type":574,"attrs":655,"content":656},{"textAlign":49},[657],{"text":658,"type":579},"In others, however, there are a plethora of competing materials – notably aluminium, plastics and galvanised or colour-coated carbon steels. When nickel prices spiked to over $50,000/tonne in 2007 on the back of low LME stocks and a flood of fast money, the market saw substantial substitution.",{"type":574,"attrs":660,"content":661},{"textAlign":49},[662],{"text":663,"type":579},"This took a number of forms. Firstly, thrifting the amounts of nickel used in stainless steel by using more 200 series stainless with only 2-4% nickel content, and also using less nickel in 300 series grades which commonly have 8% to 10% nickel content. While this led to problems for recyclers, and some quality issues, it’s reasonable to assume that reduced availability and higher prices would see a repeat from the market.",{"type":574,"attrs":665,"content":666},{"textAlign":49},[667],{"text":668,"type":579},"The second form included wholesale substitution, especially in the construction, transport and furnishings industries. Gradually over the late 2000’s high nickel grade stainless steel was phased out of many cost sensitive applications from coat hangers to pens to office window frames and furniture.",{"type":574,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":579},"A common example of this is the handrails on older trains and subway cars tend to be stainless steel, while they are colour coated steels on most new rolling stock around the world. High quality plastics and plated materials have also taken away from stainless steel demand growth over the years, with more substitution possible. The one area unlikely to face substitution is in nickel sulphate itself for lithium-ion batteries as it already is the cost-efficient substitute for cobalt. To that end we forecast that it is the stainless steels sector that will have to make way for increased nickel demand from batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677],{"text":678,"type":579},"While the challenge facing the nickel industry to meet new demand growth is large, it is not insurmountable. Nickel pig iron has revolutionised nickel supply over the past 10 years, proving the industry can adapt quickly given the right commercial incentive. It does remain to be seen where all the nickel sulphate will come from, however, and if this will further delay adoption of 811 cathode chemistries.","By Andrew Leyland, Head of Forecasting & Consultancy While the world seems settled that current and near-term lithium-ion battery investments will have time to fully depreciate ahead of any game-changing new technology, there remains more debate about what cathode formulations will be at the forefront of the market. The cost savings and relative thermal stability […]",[681],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":682},{"job_title":565,"image":683,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"9cda3480-18b7-4106-b1ca-9b882f46711b\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[687,690,693],{"slug":688,"name":689},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":691,"name":692},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":694,"name":150},"nickel","private",{"id":49,"alt":697,"name":697,"focus":697,"title":697,"source":697,"filename":698,"copyright":697,"fieldtype":699,"meta_data":700,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/801bfb7af8/bm-batteries-11312bf43.jpg","asset",{"alt":697,"title":697,"source":697,"copyright":697},"Oct 16, 2018","16th October 2018",[],[],1792773943854]