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innovation","disruptive-innovation-2","article/disruptive-innovation-2",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":578,"featured":50,"reporter":692,"_editable":696,"component":697,"seo_title":553,"categories":698,"visibility":705,"author_company":706,"featured_image":707,"seo_description":578,"author_full_name":706,"author_job_title":706,"formattedDate":711,"formattedArticleDate":712},"3136206e-f5e5-4d96-984e-c301189e367e","2016-07-20 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,588,593,598,603,608,613,618,623,628,635,640,645,650,655,660,665,670,675,680,685],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"House Mountain Partners’ Chris Berry looks at the threats and opportunities for the battery and renewable energy sectors and asks: Is it different this time?","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579,"marks":585}," “It happens slowly, then all at once.”",[586],{"type":587},"italic",{"type":574,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":579},"When Ernest Hemingway wrote this quote in his 1926 novel titled The Sun Also Rises, he could hardly imagined how pertinent the phrase would be 89 years later when applied to the critical minerals and metals sector and associated supply chains.",{"type":574,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":579},"While the comparisons to Hemingway’s novel and today’s world may end there, it does seem as if there are several forces converging to accelerate change on a massive scale.",{"type":574,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601],{"text":602,"type":579},"These forces which underpin technological disruption and innovation are not new.",{"type":574,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":579},"Primary among these is the continued increase in computing power and with it the decrease in cost. According to IBM, from the beginning of recorded time to 2003 humans created 5 billion gigabytes (GB) of data.",{"type":574,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":579},"In 2011, the same amount was created every two days. By 2013, the same amount was created every ten minutes.",{"type":574,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":579},"The advances in computing power driven by Moore’s Law style cost declines have served to make computing technology practically ubiquitous around the globe. The leveling of the global playing field through easy access to massive amounts of information can only help push innovation and entrepreneurialism forward.",{"type":574,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":579},"Second, despite headlines to the contrary, globalisation slowly continues to power forward as the world’s middle class enlarges its ranks, primarily in Asia. According to The World Bank, China is only 53% urbanised and India is 32% urbanised. Many economist and demographers believe that a society is fully urbanised at 75%. Clearly several hundred million citizens in these countries have yet to experience a higher quality of life through a more commodity centered lifestyle.",{"type":574,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":579},"Third, sustainable growth, driven by disruptive technologies and business models will continue to be of paramount importance. With the price of lithium-ion batteries, per kilowatt-hour, falling at roughly 14% per year, and the price per watt of solar power also declining rapidly, combining these technologies is an example of how access to and use of energy will change to the betterment of humanity.",{"type":629,"attrs":630,"content":632},"heading",{"level":631,"textAlign":49},3,[633],{"text":634,"type":579}," Threats to Growth",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":579},"According to a study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, solar and wind power are forecast to comprise 80% of new electricity generating capacity to 2030.",{"type":574,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":579},"There are more statistics like these which bolster the bullish case for the metals and minerals consumed in battery and electricity supply chains, however they must be set aside to present a balanced analysis of the future by pointing out some of the threats to this growth thesis.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"Though positive momentum is obvious, there are threats to the thesis of technology fuelled growth. First among them concerns the billions of dollars in R&D money being funneled into building a better battery.",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":579},"The raw materials and pros and cons for various lithium-ion chemistries are well known and the individual(s) who can overcome these limitations – cycle life or power density, for example – will go down in history as having solved one of the great physics and chemistry challenges of our time.",{"type":574,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":579},"With various companies currently building multi-billion dollar supply chains around existing chemistries, what would a breakthrough mean for their respective businesses if such a development rendered certain raw materials obsolete? Perhaps a lithium ion battery with little or no cobalt? Could these supply chains adjust? These are questions worth considering despite the time it would take to commercialise new battery chemistry. Technology may not be the savior we believe it to be after all.",{"type":574,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":579},"A second challenge concerns the performance of the macro economy since the Great Recession. It is now believed that excessive sovereign debt issuance effectively bridged the gap in an attempt to revive demand. As an example, China implemented a 4 trillion RMB ($586 billion) stimulus package focused on loans to local governments and the real estate sector. These debts must ultimately be repaid and without delving into a financial debate, growth must increase to cover debt service payments. Any sustained decline in growth could put a lid on domestic demand and hinder the impressive growth trajectory of renewable electricity sources which require a wealth of critical metals and minerals.",{"type":574,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":579},"A close eye on the performance of China’s economy is imperative.",{"type":574,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":579},"A final issue concerns raw material access. The potential impact on demand for critical battery materials including lithium, cobalt, and graphite should be well known to followers of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. There is no doubt that there is enough of these materials in resource, but is there enough of each mineable and available to integrate into existing and soon-to-be built battery supply chains?",{"type":574,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":579},"This question, above all others, looms largest. At what cost? How will accessing raw materials affect their margins? Economics matters at every point along a supply chain.",{"type":574,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":579},"Fortunately, we are likely to learn the answer to these and other questions very soon. As technology, urbanisation, and sustainability converge, it appears that the lithium-ion battery revolution is no longer happening slowly, but all at once, a fact even Mr. Hemingway would marvel at.",{"type":574,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":579,"marks":690}," Chris Berry is Co-Founder of New York-based House Mountain Partners LLC. He is a writer, speaker and analyst focused on the dynamism of energy metals and is co-author of The Disruptive Discoveries Journal.",[691],{"type":587},[693],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":694},{"job_title":565,"image":695,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"3136206e-f5e5-4d96-984e-c301189e367e\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[699,702],{"slug":700,"name":701},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":703,"name":704},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private","",{"id":49,"alt":706,"name":706,"focus":706,"title":706,"source":706,"filename":708,"copyright":706,"fieldtype":709,"meta_data":710,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/bc629d3551/bm-screen-shot-2016-07-20-at-145807.png","asset",{"alt":706,"title":706,"source":706,"copyright":706},"Jul 20, 2016","20th July 2016",[],[],1792773948163]