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automakers face a Tier One battery supply problem?","do-automakers-face-a-tier-one-battery-supply-problem","article/do-automakers-face-a-tier-one-battery-supply-problem",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":726,"featured":50,"reporter":727,"_editable":731,"component":732,"seo_title":553,"categories":733,"visibility":743,"author_company":49,"featured_image":744,"seo_description":726,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":749,"formattedArticleDate":750},"5ae9163f-7c59-42c6-a8a0-1120c22e243f","2022-07-14 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"data-visualisation","Data Visualisation",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,606,611,616,619,626,631,636,641,646,651,656,661,666,671,683,688,693,698,703,708,721],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"The automotive industry could face a global shortage of high quality “Tier One” battery cells by the end of the decade, without investment by the leading battery companies in further capacity. ","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"By 2030, Benchmark forecasts a Tier One cell supply deficit of 695 gigawatt hours, up from 22 GWh this year. Tier One suppliers are defined as those with more than 5 GWh of annual cumulative production capacity who are also qualified to supply more than one multinational OEM/EV producer outside of China.",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"The chief executives of both Rivian and Tesla have recently warned about a looming shortage of battery cells, as demand outpaces supply. Rivian’s chief executive RJ Scaringe said in April that the shortage of battery cells would make the semiconductor shortage look like a “small appetizer.”  ",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596,604],{"text":597,"type":582,"marks":598},"Last month Benchmark promoted Europe’s Northvolt and China’s Sunwoda to Tier One status",[599],{"type":600,"attrs":601},"link",{"href":602,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":603},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/northvolt-and-sunwoda-become-tier-one-ev-battery-manufacturers","url",{"text":605,"type":582},". That reduced the 2030 deficit from 840 GWh to 695 GWh. ",{"type":577,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":582},"“You can really see the difference from just having two large producers promoted,” said Aran Waid, an analyst at Benchmark.",{"type":577,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":582},"To qualify as a Tier One supplier, a producer needs to supply more than one multinational OEM outside of China and have 5 GWh of production capacity or more. Tier Two producers are able to supply the domestic Chinese EV market, and Tier Three are not yet supplying any EV markets, but do have over one GWh of capacity.",{"type":577,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":620,"attrs":621,"content":623},"heading",{"level":622,"textAlign":49},4,[624],{"text":625,"type":582},"Tier One Woes",{"type":577,"attrs":627,"content":628},{"textAlign":49},[629],{"text":630,"type":582},"Supply of batteries from Tier Two producers is currently in surplus and is expected to remain so until 2035, Benchmark forecasts. Benchmark forecasts Tier Three will be in surplus past 2040. However, 2022 is the first time Tier Three will be in surplus since Benchmark began collecting data.",{"type":577,"attrs":632,"content":633},{"textAlign":49},[634],{"text":635,"type":582},"Benchmark does not forecast an overall deficit in cell production until 2030 due to the oversupply of Tier Two and Three cells in China. ",{"type":577,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"text":640,"type":582},"However, there will be a deficit of Tier One cells until past 2040, unless extra supply is brought online.",{"type":577,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":582},"Tier One cells are primarily destined for EV producers outside of China, and for the global energy storage system (ESS) market, Waid said. Some Tier One producers will supply car factories in China, such as those operated by Tesla and other Western automakers.",{"type":577,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":582},"The ESS market, including that located in China, will be primarily supplied from Tier One producers. This is due to safety concerns requiring a very high standard of production, Waid said.",{"type":620,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"level":622,"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":582},"China’s Surplus",{"type":577,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":582},"China’s abundance of Tier Two producers means that it has a surplus of battery production. Benchmark forecasts that China’s supply will outstrip its demand unil the late 2030s.",{"type":577,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":582},"Despite Tier Two being defined by the ability to sell into the Chinese EV market, Tier One producers have a strong presence in the country, too.",{"type":577,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":582},"Of the 108 Tier One gigafactories tracked by Benchmark, 56% are in China. The majority of these are operated by CATL and BYD, a Chinese automaker which produces its own batteries.",{"type":577,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674,676,681],{"text":675,"type":582},"The ",{"text":677,"type":582,"marks":678},"promotion of Sunwoda",[679],{"type":600,"attrs":680},{"href":602,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":603},{"text":682,"type":582}," added an extra nine Tier One Chinese gigafactories.",{"type":620,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"level":622,"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":582},"Closing the gap",{"type":577,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":582},"”To close the Tier One deficit will need further expansions from existing Tier One suppliers,” Waid said.",{"type":577,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":582},"Expanding the capacity of a gigafactory will only ease the deficit if that expansion is used, however. “They should improve their utilisation rates as well,” Waid said. ",{"type":577,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":582},"“Chinese producers will start off with a higher utilisation rate in years one to three, as Chinese manufacturers tend to be more experienced,” Waid said. “But after years four and five, we see a shift so the rest of the world ends up with higher utilisation rates than China.”",{"type":577,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":582},"Part of the reason for China’s lower utilisation rates in later years is the country’s faster rate of adding capacity onto the plants, Waid noted.",{"type":577,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711,713,719],{"text":712,"type":582},"Beyond capacity and utilisation, Waid said that more Tier One producers are needed. “New ",{"text":714,"type":582,"marks":715},"startups",[716],{"type":600,"attrs":717},{"href":718,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":603},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/britishvolt-secures-government-funding-for-uk-gigafactory",{"text":720,"type":582}," need to accelerate their qualification roadmap,” he said.",{"type":577,"attrs":722,"content":723},{"textAlign":49},[724],{"text":725,"type":582},"When Northvolt and Sunwoda were promoted to Tier One status they collectively added 148 GWh of supply. This accounted for about 10% of the total Tier One supply available.","The automotive industry could face a global shortage of high quality “Tier One” battery cells by the end of the decade, without investment by the leading battery companies in further capacity. By 2030, Benchmark forecasts a Tier One cell supply deficit of 695 gigawatt hours, up from 22 GWh this year. Tier One suppliers are […]",[728],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":729},{"job_title":568,"image":730,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"5ae9163f-7c59-42c6-a8a0-1120c22e243f\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[734,737,740],{"slug":735,"name":736},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":738,"name":739},"ev","EV",{"slug":741,"name":742},"gigafactories","Battery & Gigafactory","private",{"id":49,"alt":745,"name":745,"focus":745,"title":745,"source":745,"filename":746,"copyright":745,"fieldtype":747,"meta_data":748,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/fd436652eb/bm-northvolt-ett.jpg","asset",{"alt":745,"title":745,"source":745,"copyright":745},"Jul 14, 2022","14th July 2022",[],[],1792773925425]