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Visualisation",{"filename":569},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":573,"content":574},"doc",[575,590,595,606,615,620,627,640,645,670,681,686,691,704,709,714,719,724,735],{"type":576,"attrs":577,"content":578},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[579,588],{"text":580,"type":581,"marks":582},"With cobalt prices roundly considered to be close to bottoming out at historical lows","text",[583],{"type":584,"attrs":585},"link",{"href":586,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/cobalt-sulphate-prices-sink-to-seven-year-low-in-june","url",{"text":589,"type":581},", demand prospects for electric vehicles (EV) are a relative bright-spot in what are otherwise bearish market conditions for the industry.",{"type":576,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":581},"“There has been a lot of talk in the cobalt market around demand weakness,” said Will Talbot, principal cobalt analyst at Benchmark. “However, if you look at the key demand drivers for the industry, mainly electric vehicles, we are projecting double digit growth in 2024.”",{"type":576,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598,604],{"text":599,"type":581,"marks":600},"Benchmark forecasts cobalt demand to surpass 200,000 tonnes",[601],{"type":584,"attrs":602},{"href":603,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/cobalt/reports/",{"text":605,"type":581}," for the first time in 2024, notching up year-on-year growth of close to 13%. EVs are the key driver of this growth, accounting for 78% of the uplift, with overall battery demand projected to increase by 17% on the previous year.",{"type":576,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"type":610,"attrs":611},"image",{"id":49,"alt":612,"src":613,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":614},"","https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfz1G99J5sOwB09ZdXUM4ZqX7MQYE3WPHXHfB1R9hg6FkMbGcjOJ9th3S742pTLIwLPyfXYk-UKchqxt9RQAWExI8LROSb_sWhVZ6aM9PuYjO2OfyP0sGBmt-hQ2sx_8aAL0VIv2eYv7HfmuVVD8ZiQCbNE?key=Zxk9MPjN-C9uwNI2R4Laog",{},{"type":576,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":581},"“There is demand growth, its just supply-side growth from DRC-assets owned by CMOC has been much more significant than what we’ve seen on the demand side,” Talbot added.",{"type":621,"attrs":622,"content":624},"heading",{"level":623,"textAlign":49},4,[625],{"text":626,"type":581},"Cobalt’s downturn",{"type":576,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630,632,638],{"text":631,"type":581},"The cobalt price slump constitutes part of a wider downcycle across the battery metals space. Benchmark cobalt hydroxide prices have fallen by over 29% year-on-year, reaching their lowest level recorded by the ",{"text":633,"type":581,"marks":634},"Benchmark Cobalt Price Assessment",[635],{"type":584,"attrs":636},{"href":637,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/cobalt/portal/",{"text":639,"type":581}," by mid-July.",{"type":576,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":581},"The downturn has been fuelled by the existence of a significant supply overhang in the market: in 2023 the market reached a record surplus of 19,000 tonnes, driven by a huge ramp up in new supply from CMOC’s Tenke Fungurume (TFM) and Kisanfu (KFM) operations in the DRC.",{"type":576,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648,653,655,659,666],{"text":649,"type":581,"marks":650},"Ash Lazenby, head of cobalt for North America at Glencore, delves into the current state and future of the cobalt market",[651],{"type":652},"italic",{"text":654,"type":581},". ",{"text":656,"type":581,"marks":657},"View more Power Players videos ",[658],{"type":652},{"text":660,"type":581,"marks":661},"here",[662,665],{"type":584,"attrs":663},{"href":664,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/search/tag/power-players?items_per_page=12&page_offset=0&tags[]=power-players",{"type":652},{"text":667,"type":581,"marks":668},".",[669],{"type":652},{"type":576,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673,675],{"text":674,"type":581},"This was in tandem with a deceleration in demand growth from the battery industry last year, which registered an increase of just 1% year-on-year – stemming from a slowdown in global EV sales and an ",{"text":676,"type":581,"marks":677},"ongoing shift towards non-cobalt-containing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.",[678],{"type":584,"attrs":679},{"href":680,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/lfp-uptake-and-flexible-production-lines-keep-lithium-carbonate-prices-above-hydroxide",{"type":576,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":581},"CMOC announced cobalt production from its two assets totalled 54,000 tonnes in the first half of 2024, implying annualised production of over 100,000. Although the company has reported its cobalt output will not reach this level until 2028, suggesting the current rate of production will not be sustained during the second half of the year.",{"type":576,"attrs":687,"content":688},{"textAlign":49},[689],{"text":690,"type":581},"While the upside potential for supply growth is significant, the market is also starting to see a supply response from other producers: taking around 15% of global supply out of the market. In fact, Benchmark projects demand-side growth to exceed the supply-side this year – reducing the size of the overall supply surplus by around 59% from 2023. ",{"type":576,"attrs":692,"content":693},{"textAlign":49},[694,696,702],{"text":695,"type":581},"Rumours that ",{"text":697,"type":581,"marks":698},"China’s State Reserve Bureau will begin stockpiling cobalt metal has the potential to further reduce the size of the surplus",[699],{"type":584,"attrs":700},{"href":701,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/rumoured-china-srb-cobalt-purchase-and-potential-market-impact-examined",{"text":703,"type":581},", particularly if the purchase is to the upside of the reported range.",{"type":621,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"level":623,"textAlign":49},[707],{"text":708,"type":581},"The raw material disconnect",{"type":576,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"textAlign":49},[712],{"text":713,"type":581},"Cobalt prices are set to remain constrained at historically low levels over the short-to-medium term, as Benchmark projects the supply surplus to sustain until 2027 – wherein the pace of battery demand growth is set to outstrip the pipeline of new mining capacity.",{"type":576,"attrs":715,"content":716},{"textAlign":49},[717],{"text":718,"type":581},"The present danger is that current fundamentals could accentuate future supply shortages for the battery industry, as the prevailing low price environment hinders the flow of capital into new mining capacity and producers curtail output at loss-making operations. ",{"type":576,"attrs":720,"content":721},{"textAlign":49},[722],{"text":723,"type":581},"As geopolitical competition in the industry intensifies, this is a particularly acute problem for the West, where miners are often much more price-sensitive than Chinese counterparts. In contrast, Chinese miners have tended to prioritise strategic aims such as security of supply over operating margins, as they benefit from access to cheap Chinese finance.",{"type":576,"attrs":725,"content":726},{"textAlign":49},[727,729],{"text":728,"type":581},"Indeed, Chinese miners have continued to increase output of battery minerals in the face of a wider price downturn across these markets, often ",{"text":730,"type":581,"marks":731},"with devastating impacts for the mining industry in western countries.",[732],{"type":584,"attrs":733},{"href":734,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/bhp-nickel-west-closure-deals-blow-to-australias-nickel-industry",{"type":576,"attrs":736,"content":737},{"textAlign":49},[738,740,746],{"text":739,"type":581},"This is true for cobalt and CMOC’s impact on the market over the last 18 months. ",{"text":741,"type":581,"marks":742},"China is continuing to lock-up an ever-greater number of the DRC’s copper-cobalt mining operations",[743],{"type":584,"attrs":744},{"href":745,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":587},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-bolsters-drc-copper-cobalt-dominance-with-proposed-chemaf-acquisition",{"text":747,"type":581},", taking the share of cobalt supply under Chinese control to over 60% by 2030.","With cobalt prices roundly considered to be close to bottoming out at historical lows, demand prospects for electric vehicles (EV) are a relative bright-spot in what are otherwise bearish market conditions for the industry. “There has been a lot of talk in the cobalt market around demand weakness,” said Will Talbot, principal cobalt analyst at […]",[750],{"slug":564,"name":565,"content":751},{"job_title":567,"image":752,"bio":570,"linkedin":571},{"filename":569},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"9743614c-7338-44bb-bef4-51d30543cf4c\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[756,758],{"slug":757,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":759,"name":760},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":612,"name":612,"focus":612,"title":612,"source":612,"filename":763,"copyright":612,"fieldtype":764,"meta_data":765,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/e85b20ebb4/bm-jag-i-pace-21my-exterior-charging-portofino-blue-020620-001-1.jpg","asset",{"alt":612,"title":612,"source":612,"copyright":612},"Jul 18, 2024","18th July 2024",[],[],1784908370512]