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coke supply lags synthetic graphite buildout ","ex-china-coke-supply-lags-synthetic-graphite-buildout","article/ex-china-coke-supply-lags-synthetic-graphite-buildout",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":569,"content":579,"excerpt":701,"featured":51,"reporter":702,"_editable":706,"component":707,"seo_title":553,"categories":708,"visibility":718,"author_company":49,"featured_image":719,"seo_description":701,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":725,"formattedArticleDate":726},"71483238-f720-4215-b129-7998e6e86b26","2024-05-31 00:00",[560,563,566],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",{"slug":564,"name":565},"europe","Europe",{"slug":567,"name":568},"usa","USA",[570],{"slug":571,"name":572,"content":573},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":574,"image":575,"bio":577,"linkedin":578},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":576},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":580,"content":581},"doc",[582,589,594,599,606,611,616,621,626,631,636,641,646,651,656,661,666,671,676,681,686,691,696],{"type":583,"attrs":584,"content":585},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":588},"Western synthetic graphite capacity is heading for a raw material bottleneck with not enough ex-China pet needle coke to meet forecast feedstock needs.","text",{"type":583,"attrs":590,"content":591},{"textAlign":49},[592],{"text":593,"type":588},"Benchmark data shows that ex-China regions could soon enter a deficit for needle coke, the favoured feedstock for synthetic graphite anode materials destined on Western markets. ",{"type":583,"attrs":595,"content":596},{"textAlign":49},[597],{"text":598,"type":588},"“The shortage of pet needle coke supply is set to develop and grow towards the end of this decade, as graphitisation capacity for western anode developers begins to come online,” said Benchmark analyst Tony Alderson. ",{"type":600,"attrs":601,"content":603},"heading",{"level":602,"textAlign":49},4,[604],{"text":605,"type":588},"Why are Western producers facing this bottleneck?",{"type":583,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":588},"An ex-China needle coke deficit has been long expected. However, forecast shortfalls have increased thanks to the 2022 US IRA, which incentivised companies to expand synthetic graphite expansion in the US or US free trade partner countries.",{"type":583,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":588},"This post-IRA synthetic graphite expansion has occurred without concurrent expansions for needle coke that would fit FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) sourcing requirements or could support the EU’s diversification targets under the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA).",{"type":583,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619],{"text":620,"type":588},"This highlights the need for more investment into the upstream sections of the anode supply chain, a segment where diversification has already proven difficult for the US.",{"type":583,"attrs":622,"content":623},{"textAlign":49},[624],{"text":625,"type":588},"China’s dominance in synthetic graphite already led the US Treasury in May to relax its FEOC sourcing rules for the critical mineral until 2027, aimed at allowing ex-China supply to come online.",{"type":583,"attrs":627,"content":628},{"textAlign":49},[629],{"text":630,"type":588},"The FEOC exemption means that EV producers will not need to trace the origins of synthetic graphite to qualify for IRA tax credits until the deadline as there is currently not enough upstream capacity outside China.",{"type":600,"attrs":632,"content":633},{"level":602,"textAlign":49},[634],{"text":635,"type":588},"Who are the current ex-China coke suppliers?",{"type":583,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"text":640,"type":588},"Currently, there are nine non-Chinese owned needle coke producers that hold either operating or pipeline capacity across six ex-China countries. Of these, eight are FEOC compliant.",{"type":583,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":588},"“Many companies planning synthetic graphite capacity outside of China have gone to suppliers such as Phillips 66 to secure this feedstock. This is adequate for near-term plans but when looking at the expansion plans of all the ex-China players, demand for high quality ex-China feedstock will eventually outstrip supply,” said Alderson.",{"type":600,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"level":602,"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":588},"Why can’t ex-China producers use Chinese needle coke? ",{"type":583,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":588},"The IRA’s FEOC clause drastically narrows the pool of needle coke feedstock synthetic graphite producers can draw on if they are to benefit from US EV tax credits.",{"type":583,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":588},"Under the FOEC clause, EVs are not eligible for IRA credits if its batteries’ components or inputs are supplied either by companies with ownership ties to the Chinese government or are owned over a certain threshold by Chinese companies. ",{"type":583,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":588},"Yet even if the FEOC clause were not an issue, ex-China producers would still not be able to rely on Chinese supply long term. By 2032, China will also enter a long-term needle coke deficit.",{"type":600,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"level":602,"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":588},"Is substitution possible? ",{"type":583,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":588},"Without more investment into ex-China needle coke capacity, synthetic coke producers would need to substitute the material. This would come at a cost, however.",{"type":583,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":588},"Needle coke has the lowest sulphur content and the lowest concentration of metallic components and other impurities. ",{"type":583,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":588},"This results in a high-quality anode material favoured by Western OEMs for their higher electrical conductivity and power than anodes that draw on other types of cokes. ",{"type":583,"attrs":687,"content":688},{"textAlign":49},[689],{"text":690,"type":588},"“Low sulphur pet coke would be the next best option, then medium coke sulphur. However, their performance benefits for these are not as good as for needle coke,” said Tony Alderson. ",{"type":583,"attrs":692,"content":693},{"textAlign":49},[694],{"text":695,"type":588},"The lower-cost pet cokes have higher sulphur and impurity content resulting in lower-performance products. ",{"type":583,"attrs":697,"content":698},{"textAlign":49},[699],{"text":700,"type":588},"Chinese anode producers have tried blending pet cokes with needle coke to cut costs while retaining some performance factors. These products have until recently been restricted to the lower-value Chinese markets.","Western synthetic graphite capacity is heading for a raw material bottleneck with not enough ex-China pet needle coke to meet forecast feedstock needs. Benchmark data shows that ex-China regions could soon enter a deficit for needle coke, the favoured feedstock for synthetic graphite anode materials destined on Western markets. “The shortage of pet needle coke […]",[703],{"slug":571,"name":572,"content":704},{"job_title":574,"image":705,"bio":577,"linkedin":578},{"filename":576},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"71483238-f720-4215-b129-7998e6e86b26\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[709,712,715],{"slug":710,"name":711},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":713,"name":714},"geopolitics","Geopolitics",{"slug":716,"name":717},"graphite","Graphite","private",{"id":49,"alt":720,"name":721,"focus":721,"title":720,"source":721,"filename":722,"copyright":721,"fieldtype":723,"meta_data":724,"is_external_url":51},"VW EV charging in Berlin","","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/3d66fed62a/bm-shutterstock-742532452.jpg","asset",{"alt":720,"title":720,"source":721,"copyright":721},"May 31, 2024","31st May 2024",[],[],1792773900949]