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seek cobalt as disruption looms","explorers-seek-cobalt-as-disruption-looms","article/explorers-seek-cobalt-as-disruption-looms",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":644,"featured":50,"reporter":645,"_editable":649,"component":650,"seo_title":553,"categories":651,"visibility":660,"author_company":49,"featured_image":661,"seo_description":644,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":666,"formattedArticleDate":667},"93c4cc4b-9b91-4346-b480-7ef8ed4980f8","2017-01-26 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,615,620,625,630,635],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"In the cyclical markets we live in the question always begs, what’s next?","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"The end of 2015 and throughout 2016 was very much the year of lithium. Due to the evolution of the lithium ion battery sector, we saw the biggest price rises the industry has ever seen with hydroxide grades seeing more than a four-times increase in this period.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"There is little doubt speciality minerals are now firmly in the limelight and the investment community especially is asking: where will focus turn for 2017? While the lithium story is here to stay, eyes must be also be on cobalt as front runner for the most talked about speciality mineral or chemical in 2017.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"The first and most pressing issue is the unfolding and worsening political situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is the most significant country for cobalt supply accounting for 60% of global raw material output in 2016, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data. It has been well document that DRC president Joseph Kabila is refusing to leave office despite his elected mandate having expired after his second term in office (the countries constitution does not allow presidents to stand for a third term).",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"In late-December 2016, protestors had already clashed with security forces, not only in the countries capital Kinshasa but also in other cities resulting in a number of deaths. Thankfully at this stage talks have resumed between the presidential alliance and the main opposition. With so much of the global supply coming from the nation, and the DRC having never had a peaceful transition of power since its independence from Belgium in 1960 this has to be considered a major roadblock in the supply chain.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"Assuming the political issues in the DRC are resolved peacefully, there is yet another threat to supply intrinsic to the nation. Artisanal mining and child labour within the cobalt industry was brought to the attention of the world by The Washington Post and Amnesty International in 2016.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"The market responded with the Chinese led Responsible Cobalt Initiative, with the likes of Apple, Sony, Samsung and Zhejiang Huayou signing up. The initiative, in essence, treats cobalt like a conflict mineral by putting the supply chain under scrutiny. Whilst it is still early days the full impact of the initiative has not yet been seen but it has the potential to change the pattern of global cobalt supply if fully implemented.",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":579},"The intrinsic problems of DRC are one of the reasons that companies are starting to look at prospects elsewhere to reduce the risk to their supply. Benchmark is tracking 11 companies with 20 different cobalt prospects outside of DRC alone. Of course, not all of these will make it to production, but it represents a significant change of pace from even 12 months ago, and is largely being driven by Canada and Australia. Bringing geographical variation to cobalt supply is not the only reason for this cobalt exploration surge, it is also driven by demand.",{"type":574,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":579},"The cobalt global cobalt market annually is 100,000 tonnes, of which 48,000 tonnes are consumed by the lithium ion battery sector, primarily in LCO, NMC, and NCA chemistries. Benchmark forecasts that by the end of 2020 battery demand will be such that it requires 70,000 tonnes per year alone, a 45% increase in battery grade cobalt in 3 years.",{"type":574,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":579},"In many ways the price movement of cobalt largely went under the radar for 2016, perhaps because its gains compared to lithium were far less significant, but if you look at the cobalt price in its own right it has steadily moved into far higher ground than where it started. With little fanfare, cobalt’s price has risen 40% in 2016 alone. The price for cobalt metal as of mid-December was $14.50/$14.75/lb (bid/offer), whereas Q1 2016 the price was at $9.85/lb. All this considered with the fact that in 2008 prices hit over $50/lb due to Chinese demand and DRC unrest, means price rises in the market still has some way to go.",{"type":574,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":579},"The supply of cobalt is dominated by two things, the production of copper and nickel. Cobalt is a secondary mineral, a specialist by-product to these large commodities. There are no outright cobalt mines in the world to date which means it is at the mercy of the markets of these primary minerals it is associated with. And with these markets being depressed for some time now, questions over a supply crunch have been intensifying. Mining companies do not like to take their resources out of the ground when prices are low, therefore they reduce extraction activity during these depressions.",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"This has had an impact on the production of cobalt, and will do until we see significant and sustained recovery in copper and nickel prices. Of course, what puts all of this into context is the meteoric rise of the lithium ion battery and with lithium continuing to see price increases into 2017, cobalt is next in line.",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638,640,642],{"text":639,"type":579},"Caspar Rawles ",{"text":641,"type":579},"Analyst ",{"text":643,"type":579},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence","In the cyclical markets we live in the question always begs, what’s next? The end of 2015 and throughout 2016 was very much the year of lithium. Due to the evolution of the lithium ion battery sector, we saw the biggest price rises the industry has ever seen with hydroxide grades seeing more than a […]",[646],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":647},{"job_title":565,"image":648,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"93c4cc4b-9b91-4346-b480-7ef8ed4980f8\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[652,655,657],{"slug":653,"name":654},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":656,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":658,"name":659},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":662,"name":662,"focus":662,"title":662,"source":662,"filename":663,"copyright":662,"fieldtype":664,"meta_data":665,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/ce735a26c9/bm-cropped-cropped-cropped-background1.png","asset",{"alt":662,"title":662,"source":662,"copyright":662},"Jan 26, 2017","26th January 2017",[],[],1792773946491]