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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":803,"relatedVideos":804},112472777932281,"89fadf3c-0f43-49f6-ae9b-818e6ce90844","Faltering trust in the LME leads to new MHP nickel pricing methods","faltering-trust-in-the-lme-leads-to-new-mhp-nickel-pricing-methods","article/faltering-trust-in-the-lme-leads-to-new-mhp-nickel-pricing-methods",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":559,"content":569,"excerpt":782,"featured":51,"reporter":783,"_editable":787,"component":788,"seo_title":543,"categories":789,"visibility":795,"author_company":49,"featured_image":796,"seo_description":782,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":801,"formattedArticleDate":802},"e74fe933-ab5d-451f-b912-408ea628285a","2022-05-05 00:00",[550,553,556],{"slug":551,"name":552},"data-visualisation","Data Visualisation",{"slug":554,"name":555},"lme","LME",{"slug":557,"name":558},"nickel-prices","Nickel prices",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":563},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":564,"image":565,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":566},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":570,"content":571},"doc",[572,579,584,589,604,609,616,621,626,631,636,639,644,649,652,657,662,665,670,675,680,685,690,695,700,705,712,717,722,727,732,737,742,747,752],{"type":573,"attrs":574,"content":575},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[576],{"text":577,"type":578},"So far during 2022, nickel prices have experienced significant volatility, with price increases and subsequent rising costs observed throughout the nickel and lithium ion battery and cathode supply chains, compounded by unprecedented levels of uncertainty in the market. ","text",{"type":573,"attrs":580,"content":581},{"textAlign":49},[582],{"text":583,"type":578},"A rally in the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price, driven by a short squeeze in March, and the subsequent cancelling of trades, has played a significant role in driving certain participants in the battery value chain towards implementing new methods of pricing. ",{"type":573,"attrs":585,"content":586},{"textAlign":49},[587],{"text":588,"type":578},"Questions over the reliability of the LME nickel contract, due to cancelled trades and repeated trading halts, as well as sustained high LME cash settlement prices, has begun to push market participants to consider using other mechanisms to price nickel transactions. ",{"type":573,"attrs":590,"content":591},{"textAlign":49},[592,594,602],{"text":593,"type":578},"For the battery supply chain, this has been most prominent in the ",{"text":595,"type":578,"marks":596},"mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)",[597],{"type":598,"attrs":599},"link",{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":601},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/benchmark-launches-nickel-industrys-first-mixed-hydroxide-precipitate-mhp-price","url",{"text":603,"type":578}," market where a payable to LME cash settled nickel prices has been the typical structure, with buyers and sellers in some cases instead opting for prices they believe better represent the current state of play in the nickel market. ",{"type":573,"attrs":605,"content":606},{"textAlign":49},[607],{"text":608,"type":578},"Moreover, recent legislation changes in China, allowing the import of black mass as an alternative feed, and the uptick in Covid-19 cases in China, including ensuing lockdowns, has accelerated this market shift due to weakened demand for battery grade nickel and expectation of improved feedstock availability in the Chinese market.",{"type":610,"attrs":611,"content":613},"heading",{"level":612,"textAlign":49},4,[614],{"text":615,"type":578},"LME RALLY, COVID AND BLACK MASS",{"type":573,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619],{"text":620,"type":578},"The LME nickel short squeeze in March saw prices reach record highs, surpassing $100,000/tonne briefly, before the LME cancelled all trades on the 8 March and backdated prices to $48,000/tonne. ",{"type":573,"attrs":622,"content":623},{"textAlign":49},[624],{"text":625,"type":578},"As a result, market participants have raised questions over the reliability of the LME as a pricing mechanism following the nickel price rally action, during which a reported $3.9bn of trades were cancelled by the exchange.",{"type":573,"attrs":627,"content":628},{"textAlign":49},[629],{"text":630,"type":578},"This sparked claims that the LME acted intentionally to protect large industry players who were affected by the rally, with some suggesting this was at the behest of the exchange’s owners, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX). ",{"type":573,"attrs":632,"content":633},{"textAlign":49},[634],{"text":635,"type":578},"Regardless of whether these accusations can be verified, these claims have done significant damage to the trust market participants have previously placed in the LME, by suggesting the exchange is not an independent and impartial entity. Following the incident, liquidity on the exchange has dropped significantly, with average daily transaction levels in April down by 49% from February volumes.",{"type":573,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":573,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":578},"For a number of Chinese players, the traditional method of pricing MHP transactions, which uses a payable level to LME cash settled nickel prices, has been abandoned, according to Benchmark’s market sources. So far, Benchmark has noted two alternative methods currently being used to price MHP. ",{"type":573,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":578},"The first has seen a shift to use a payable level versus the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) nickel metal cash settled price, the initial trading level of which was significantly lower than payables to the LME, primarily due to the 13% VAT included in the SHFE price, however payables to the LME fell to a similar level by months end.",{"type":573,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":573,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":49},[655],{"text":656,"type":578},"Whilst certain elements of the supply chain are resorting to this method, it has created concerns amongst some producers that they will receive weaker pricing due to the lower payable levels being cited versus SHFE prices and could have a negative impact on pricing moving forward. ",{"type":573,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":578},"The alternative method some market participants are currently offering is to maintain payables at 90%, similar to the levels being traded for MHP versus the LME price before the March short squeeze (Benchmark MHP payable, CIF Asia, 68.5% on 29 April 2022), with purchasers required to bid on the nickel metal price for the volumes in an auction process.",{"type":573,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":573,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":578},"Although LME nickel prices have fallen since the short-squeeze in mid-March, they remain at their highest level since 2007, currently at $32,430/tonne according to the LME cash price, significantly impacting battery grade nickel prices. ",{"type":573,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":578},"This has caused disparity between LME and domestic Chinese prices, which have recently experienced downward momentum, with the price for MHP down by 32% m-o-m in April.",{"type":573,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":578},"Prices have been impacted by a number of factors, primarily Covid-19 lockdowns in China negatively affecting production and utilisation rates across the lithium ion battery supply chain, including precursor facilities in several provinces, such as Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, and Jiangsu, reducing demand for MHP. ",{"type":573,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":578},"Availability of battery suitable feedstock in China is also expected to increase as, in April, 2022, the Chinese government allowed the import of black mass from recycled batteries, improving supply-side fundamentals.",{"type":573,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":578},"Alongside growing supply from Indonesian battery focused nickel mining operations, expected later in 2022, black mass is perceived as a relatively cheap alternative source of feed for nickel refineries, expanding feedstock choice, deterring buyers further from paying higher prices for MHP priced against high LME exchange prices, exacerbated by fears of a another short squeeze further elevating prices.   ",{"type":573,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":578},"The nickel market has been in a state of paralysis in recent weeks, as some buyers have been unwilling to accept payable levels referencing LME cash settled prices. As more black mass becomes available, some consumers may seek to source black mass as an alternative to MHP for additional spot volumes, again making the LME’s role in the battery supply chain less significant.",{"type":610,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"level":612,"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":578},"OUTLOOK",{"type":573,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":578},"Although Benchmark has highlighted there was no real correlation between the LME price increase and underlying market fundamentals, the phenomenon has substantially affected the market’s confidence in the LME. ",{"type":573,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708,710],{"text":709,"type":578},"Consequently, if the LME is unable to restore market confidence in the exchange, it runs the risk of becoming redundant to the battery supply chain, particularly ",{"text":711,"type":578},"in China, the global hub for battery nickel, as more market participants opt to use alternative pricing methods.",{"type":573,"attrs":713,"content":714},{"textAlign":49},[715],{"text":716,"type":578},"Most contacts have reported a willingness to use LME prices again if they return to a level more reflective of the current market, however, if prices fail to do so over the coming months, these participants indicated to Benchmark they will continue to use the new methods going forwards.",{"type":573,"attrs":718,"content":719},{"textAlign":49},[720],{"text":721,"type":578},"Furthermore, it raises broader questions about the suitability of futures exchanges as a terminal marketplace for more volatile growth markets, particularly battery metals. ",{"type":573,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725],{"text":726,"type":578},"Whilst these exchanges have worked well in relatively stable industrial markets, the rally observed on 8 March 2022 could be a shot across the bows for the battery supply chain and how it should consider the future of pricing.",{"type":573,"attrs":728,"content":729},{"textAlign":49},[730],{"text":731,"type":578},"Benchmark forecasts that demand for lithium ion batteries will experience a 28% CAGR to the end of the decade, and as such the raw material markets needed to support this growth will undergo similar trajectories. ",{"type":573,"attrs":733,"content":734},{"textAlign":49},[735],{"text":736,"type":578},"Heavily structured futures exchanges, which require exact contract terms and product specifications may not have the flexibility to deal with such rapid growth rates and ensuing volatility in prices. ",{"type":573,"attrs":738,"content":739},{"textAlign":49},[740],{"text":741,"type":578},"Furthermore, these exchanges are heavily influenced and used by the financial sector, as opposed to producers and consumers active in the supply chain.",{"type":573,"attrs":743,"content":744},{"textAlign":49},[745],{"text":746,"type":578},"This highlights the need for independent references which assess the real transactions for physical material happening within the lithium ion battery supply chain between producers and consumers, as formally assessed by Benchmark.",{"type":610,"attrs":748,"content":749},{"level":612,"textAlign":49},[750],{"text":751,"type":578},"Benchmark’s Nickel Price Assessment",{"type":573,"attrs":753,"content":754},{"textAlign":49},[755,760,767,771,778],{"text":756,"type":578,"marks":757},"For more information about Benchmark’s Nickel Price Assessment fill in the ",[758],{"type":759},"italic",{"text":761,"type":578,"marks":762},"contact form",[763,766],{"type":598,"attrs":764},{"href":765,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":601},"/contact",{"type":759},{"text":768,"type":578,"marks":769}," or email ",[770],{"type":759},{"text":772,"type":578,"marks":773},"info@benchmarkminerals.com",[774,777],{"type":598,"attrs":775},{"href":776,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":601},"mailto:info@benchmarkminerals.com",{"type":759},{"text":779,"type":578,"marks":780},". ",[781],{"type":759},"So far during 2022, nickel prices have experienced significant volatility, with price increases and subsequent rising costs observed throughout the nickel and lithium ion battery and cathode supply chains, compounded by unprecedented levels of uncertainty in the market. A rally in the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price, driven by a short squeeze in March, […]",[784],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":785},{"job_title":564,"image":786,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},{"filename":566},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"e74fe933-ab5d-451f-b912-408ea628285a\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[790,793],{"slug":791,"name":792},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":794,"name":150},"nickel","private",{"id":49,"alt":797,"name":797,"focus":797,"title":797,"source":797,"filename":798,"copyright":797,"fieldtype":799,"meta_data":800,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/f7421a16d2/bm-15099264329-8e6e384623-c.jpg","asset",{"alt":797,"title":797,"source":797,"copyright":797},"May 05, 2022","5th May 2022",[],[],1780670083255]