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and China Moly fail to shake hands over Kokkola","freeport-and-china-moly-fail-to-shake-hands-over-kokkola","article/freeport-and-china-moly-fail-to-shake-hands-over-kokkola",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":754,"featured":50,"reporter":755,"_editable":759,"component":760,"seo_title":553,"categories":761,"visibility":768,"author_company":49,"featured_image":769,"seo_description":754,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":774,"formattedArticleDate":775},"cf19173e-56ad-4fe1-84c7-3f7558b0be59","2017-07-26 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,598,601,606,611,616,621,626,631,636,643,646,651,656,661,666,671,676,681,689,694,699,704,709,714,719,724,729,734,739,744,749],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"We are now halfway through 2017 and so far, it seems the year has been all eyes on cobalt. Whilst price rises were dramatic in Q1, Q2 saw somewhat of a levelling off in the curve, but importantly little by way of price decreases.","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"As we move in H2 2017 cobalt is still very much on the agenda of the energy storage revolution and will be for some time. The reason is quite simple, such a small market (93,000 tonnes refined material in 2016) has limited ability to respond to the expected squeeze that will be generated by the growing demand for lithium-ion batteries, primarily for EV’s.",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"Despite claims that cobalt content can be reduced or even engineered out of lithium-ion batteries, so far no one has achieved this and by all means it looks as though the move to NCM 811 cathode material (the lowest cobalt content variant of current technology) will take some time.",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":582},"With such a small, stretched market under intense scrutiny (just 93,000 tonnes production, and demand reaching a touch over 93,000 tonnes in 2016) each and every development must be considered, and what the potential impact on the supply chain will be.",{"type":577,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":577,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604],{"text":605,"type":582},"In Q2 2016 Freeport McMoRan outlined plans to sell the companies only copper-cobalt mine to China Molybdenum for $2.65bn in a move designed to reduce the US miner’s debt load.",{"type":577,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":582},"The deal seemed to fit well, with many commenting that this was another example of the Chinese manoeuvring to further secure their commodity supply chains; and with Freeport keen to sell assets in a time of low commodity prices, the deal went through later that year without a hitch.",{"type":577,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":582},"As part of the deal China Moly negotiated exclusive rights to the assets of Freeport Cobalt. This part of the deal included the Kokkola cobalt refinery in Finland (for a reported yet non-binding price of $100m) as well as Freeport’s Kisanfu exploration project (again for a reported yet non-binding price of $50m) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).",{"type":577,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619],{"text":620,"type":582},"The period of exclusivity ended earlier this year on the 28th February, with an official announcement that both parties had decided to end negotiations on 14th June. At the time of the announcement Freeport failed to comment on whether it had been approached by any other parties interested in purchasing the assets.",{"type":577,"attrs":622,"content":623},{"textAlign":49},[624],{"text":625,"type":582},"Upon first appearances this seems like a fairly straight forward story, but delving a little deeper there is more to it.",{"type":577,"attrs":627,"content":628},{"textAlign":49},[629],{"text":630,"type":582},"The deal seemed like the type of move that has been commonly seen of late, a Chinese miner or refiner makes a large investment or purchase of a mine/company in order to ensure that it will have supply of the underlying commodity in the future.",{"type":577,"attrs":632,"content":633},{"textAlign":49},[634],{"text":635,"type":582},"The move by China Moly seemed to be one to lock up cobalt supply, especially at a time when copper prices were on approximately 8-year low’s and material was easy to come by.",{"type":637,"attrs":638,"content":640},"heading",{"level":639,"textAlign":49},3,[641],{"text":642,"type":582},"Supply Chains",{"type":577,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":577,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":582},"After the deal was made it was thought that China Moly would divert the newly acquired cobalt feedstock to China. Under Freeport the usual path would lead from Tenke in the DRC to the Kokkola refinery in Finland and out to the wider market.",{"type":577,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":582},"The new path would take feedstock from Tenke and transport it directly to China for processing, with much of the processed cobalt remaining in China for domestic consumption.",{"type":577,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":582},"It later emerged that Freeport had negotiated as part of the deal a long-term cobalt supply contract (the June 14th announcement stated more than 10 years) for material from Tenke.",{"type":577,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":582},"This element of the deal led many to believe that China Moly would in fact buy Kokkola and the other assets in order to make greater margin by refining cobalt feedsotck to value added products such as the cobalt chemicals and cobalt metal powders that are produced at Kokkola today.",{"type":577,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":582},"In 2016 the Tenke mine produced 16,000 tonnes of cobalt, 12,000 tonnes of this feedstock was sent to Kokkola for processing and refining. The 2016 production numbers would leave just 4,000 tonnes of cobalt feedstock to be diverted to China leaving little for China Moly and any strategic move to assist China’s march toward lithium-ion dominance.",{"type":577,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":582},"But it is now known that China Moly will not buy Kokkola yet is contractually bound to keep supplying cobalt feedstock to Freeport, so what is the game plan? What does this mean for the future? First let us take a look at perhaps why the deal didn’t go through, to do this we must look back at the cobalt market prior to its recent price spike.",{"type":577,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":582},"The deal for the purchase of Tenke, which was announced in May 2016, would have taken a period of months to negotiate. When Freeport made the decision to sell Tenke it is likely that the price of cobalt was closer to $10/lb a far cry from the current level approaching $30/lb.",{"type":577,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":582,"marks":686},"In short supply – cobalt sulphate",[687],{"type":688},"italic",{"type":577,"attrs":690,"content":691},{"textAlign":49},[692],{"text":693,"type":582},"At the time cobalt prices were in the midst of a long term price slump and the outlook was, by today’s standards, rather bleak. No one could have foreseen the changes that were on the horizon, of course it is known all commodities are cyclical and at some stage prices were bound to rise again, but no one was forecasting price rises to the level seen in such a short time frame.",{"type":577,"attrs":695,"content":696},{"textAlign":49},[697],{"text":698,"type":582},"Back when the deal was struck Freeport’s margin at Kokkola will have been squeezed, making the plants operation relatively fruitless. At today’s price levels Freeport will be enjoying significant margins on their cobalt products.",{"type":577,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":49},[702],{"text":703,"type":582},"Freeport will not only be making large margins from what they can produce at Kokkola, they will inevitably have a multi-thousand tonne stockpile ready for tolling at the site. The stockpiled material in such tight markets is like gold dust, essentially liquid cash for the company.",{"type":577,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"textAlign":49},[707],{"text":708,"type":582},"With all this considered is likely that Freeport had changed their minds about the sale of Kokkola, especially with the long term supply deal in the bag. They simply no longer want to sell it, or at least (and perhaps more importantly) not for a price that China Moly are will to pay.",{"type":577,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"textAlign":49},[712],{"text":713,"type":582},"Since the sale of Tenke the global outlook for commodities is far more bullish. Freeport’s debt woes, to some extent, will be less of a concern so it is hardly surprising that they would want to hold onto Kokkola and ride the wave of juicy profits off of the back of the energy storage revolution.",{"type":577,"attrs":715,"content":716},{"textAlign":49},[717],{"text":718,"type":582},"Of course there are a multitude of other reasons why Freeport and China Moly couldn’t agree terms on the deal, perhaps china Moly have no interest in refining cobalt (but then it must be asked why they would work into the deal the option to buy Freeport Cobalt’s assets).",{"type":577,"attrs":720,"content":721},{"textAlign":49},[722],{"text":723,"type":582},"Perhaps it could be that China Moly is eyeing the purchase of a cobalt refinery in China. A refinery based in the company’s homeland would benefit from cheaper labour costs as well as having a geographical location at the epicentre of the energy storage revolution.",{"type":577,"attrs":725,"content":726},{"textAlign":49},[727],{"text":728,"type":582},"But if that is the case 4,000 tonnes will not cut it. Not by a long shot. There are a wide number of estimates out there for the adoption rate of EV’s (the real growth driver behind the cobalt market), and even at relatively conservative levels demand for cobalt is set to explode.",{"type":577,"attrs":730,"content":731},{"textAlign":49},[732],{"text":733,"type":582},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects that cobalt demand for batteries will grow from 48,000 tonnes in 2016 to over 82,000 tonnes by 2021.",{"type":577,"attrs":735,"content":736},{"textAlign":49},[737],{"text":738,"type":582},"China Moly made a sizeable investment in the Tenke mine, and whilst they have enjoyed rising prices in the cobalt market since it is likely they will want to capitalise on this ‘hockey stick’ curve even more.",{"type":577,"attrs":740,"content":741},{"textAlign":49},[742],{"text":743,"type":582},"But with the Freeport cobalt supply deal already locked up, does this suggest a move to increase production at Tenke in order to bring new material to the Chinese market. Whilst too early to tell it would seem logical, Benchmark forecasts the cobalt market to remain tight out to 2021 then turning to market deficit which will grow out to 2023.",{"type":577,"attrs":745,"content":746},{"textAlign":49},[747],{"text":748,"type":582},"The price outlook for cobalt is a rosy picture too, Benchmark expects prices to remain at current levels for the foreseeable future, with distinct upward pressure.",{"type":577,"attrs":750,"content":751},{"textAlign":49},[752],{"text":753,"type":582},"So it would seem that this is an ideal time to bring further supply to market and to meet anticipated demand. With this being China Molybdenum’s first foray into the cobalt space, their strategy remains unclear, but it is certainly one to watch closely.","We are now halfway through 2017 and so far, it seems the year has been all eyes on cobalt. Whilst price rises were dramatic in Q1, Q2 saw somewhat of a levelling off in the curve, but importantly little by way of price decreases. As we move in H2 2017 cobalt is still very much […]",[756],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":757},{"job_title":568,"image":758,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"cf19173e-56ad-4fe1-84c7-3f7558b0be59\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[762,765],{"slug":763,"name":764},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":766,"name":767},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":770,"name":770,"focus":770,"title":770,"source":770,"filename":771,"copyright":770,"fieldtype":772,"meta_data":773,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/2543047f15/bm-screen-shot-2017-07-26-at-154022.png","asset",{"alt":770,"title":770,"source":770,"copyright":770},"Jul 26, 2017","26th July 2017",[],[],1792773945643]