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lithium supply forecast to hit 1 million tonnes for first time","global-lithium-supply-forecast-to-hit-1-million-tonnes-for-first-time","article/global-lithium-supply-forecast-to-hit-1-million-tonnes-for-first-time",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":738,"featured":51,"reporter":739,"_editable":743,"component":744,"seo_title":553,"categories":745,"visibility":751,"author_company":49,"featured_image":752,"seo_description":738,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":756,"formattedArticleDate":757},"79840d1a-82a8-4e73-99d7-5db63055dc8d","2023-04-28 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,595,600,605,610,615,635,644,651,656,661,666,671,676,683,688,693,698,703,708,713,723,728,733],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"Global lithium supply is set to pass one million tonnes for the first time this year, Benchmark forecasts, driven by growth in existing projects as well as new supply in China, Africa and the Americas.","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583,585,593],{"text":584,"type":579},"By the end of 2023, world supply of lithium will be more than double 2021’s output and more than total produced between 2015 and 2018, in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), according to ",{"text":586,"type":579,"marks":587},"Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast",[588],{"type":589,"attrs":590},"link",{"href":591,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/lithium/","url",{"text":594,"type":579},". ",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"The million-tonne milestone reflects how quickly lithium production has increased over the past few years due to expansions in Chile and Australia. This year new projects in Brazil, Quebec and Australia are also set to boost supply of the battery raw material. ",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"Between 2020 and 2023, the lithium sector struggled to meet rising demand from the electric vehicle industry, causing Chinese battery-grade lithium prices to double last year. ",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"Global supply grew 25% in 2020 compared to 9% in 2019 and growth will likely peak at 49% this year, according to Benchmark. ",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":579},"This productive surge, coupled with the drawdown of EV subsidies in China earlier this year as well as uncertain consumer demand, is behind the ongoing lithium price decline that began in November 2022.",{"type":574,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618,620,626,628,634],{"text":619,"type":579},"Chinese battery-grade lithium prices have more ",{"text":621,"type":579,"marks":622},"than halved",[623],{"type":589,"attrs":624},{"href":625,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/chinese-lithium-prices-almost-halve-from-november-peak-as-demand-weakens",{"text":627,"type":579}," this year, according to ",{"text":629,"type":579,"marks":630},"Benchmark’s Lithium Price Assessment",[631],{"type":589,"attrs":632},{"href":633,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/lithium/",{"text":594,"type":579},{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"type":639,"attrs":640},"image",{"id":49,"alt":641,"src":642,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":643},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/2396a0bad2/bm-image-37.png",{},{"type":645,"attrs":646,"content":648},"heading",{"level":647,"textAlign":49},4,[649],{"text":650,"type":579},"Moving to a balanced market ",{"type":574,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":579},"The rapid build out in mine-capacity by Chinese companies in Jiangxi, Xinjiang, and Zimbabwe alongside a strong pipeline of projects expected to enter the market in 2024, means that the market is now expected to be balanced by the second half of next year, according to Benchmark.",{"type":574,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":579},"This year new projects include Sigma Lithium’s Grota do Cirilo mine in Brazil, Sayona Mining’s Authier mine in Quebec, and Wesfarmers/SQM’s Mt Holland mine in Australia. ",{"type":574,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":579},"Yet forecast market figures suggest that the current slowdown should not foster complacency around long term lithium supply. ",{"type":574,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":579},"Lithium supply will need to double again to reach two million tonnes LCE demand as soon as 2027, Benchmark forecasts.",{"type":574,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":579},"Annual growth in lithium supply will ease in 2024 to 27%, fading to single figures by 2028. This is before a prolonged market deficit sets in from 2029 until at least 2040, according to Benchmark’s base case forecast. ",{"type":574,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"type":639,"attrs":680},{"id":49,"alt":641,"src":681,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":682},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/13bc7155cf/bm-image-36.png",{},{"type":645,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"level":647,"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":579},"From minor metal to critical resource",{"type":574,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":579},"Traditionally, lithium was used by the glass, enamel, ceramics, pharmaceuticals and aluminium industries. ",{"type":574,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":579},"By 2015, batteries were the largest single end use for the metal. The following year, EVs overtook portables as the largest source of lithium demand within the battery segment.",{"type":574,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":579},"It was only in 2019 that demand from batteries finally exceeded total demand from traditional markets like ceramics, fuelling steep growth in overall lithium production. ",{"type":645,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"level":647,"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":579},"Rock versus brine lithium",{"type":574,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":579},"Australia dominates lithium supply today and into the 2030s, the country is set to produce around 26% of the world’s mined output.",{"type":574,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716,718,722],{"text":717,"type":579},"China, however, is set to overtake Chile to become the second biggest lithium producer this decade, according to ",{"text":586,"type":579,"marks":719},[720],{"type":589,"attrs":721},{"href":591,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},{"text":594,"type":579},{"type":574,"attrs":724,"content":725},{"textAlign":49},[726],{"text":727,"type":579},"The geography of mined lithium supply can influence market prices for lithium chemicals as regional ore types can affect the economics of mining and processing.",{"type":574,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":49},[731],{"text":732,"type":579},"An oversupply is more likely to occur in lithium hydroxide in the near-term because spodumene mines and Chinese conversion facilities are faster to build and ramp up compared to brine, according to Benchmark.",{"type":574,"attrs":734,"content":735},{"textAlign":49},[736],{"text":737,"type":579},"“The balance between carbonate and hydroxide may temporarily be an issue but could ultimately balance out because there is flexibility to convert carbonate to hydroxide and vice versa, particularly in China,” said Benchmark analyst Cameron Perks.","Global lithium supply is set to pass one million tonnes for the first time this year, Benchmark forecasts, driven by growth in existing projects as well as new supply in China, Africa and the Americas. By the end of 2023, world supply of lithium will be more than double 2021’s output and more than total […]",[740],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":741},{"job_title":565,"image":742,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"79840d1a-82a8-4e73-99d7-5db63055dc8d\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[746,749],{"slug":747,"name":748},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":750,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":49,"alt":641,"name":641,"focus":641,"title":641,"source":641,"filename":753,"copyright":641,"fieldtype":754,"meta_data":755,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/8105008e12/bm-sayona-mining.jpg","asset",{"alt":641,"title":641,"source":641,"copyright":641},"Apr 28, 2023","28th April 2023",[],[],1792773916039]