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& nickel uncertainty clouds auto plans","graphite-nickel-uncertainty-clouds-auto-plans","article/graphite-nickel-uncertainty-clouds-auto-plans",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":747,"featured":50,"reporter":748,"_editable":752,"component":753,"seo_title":553,"categories":754,"visibility":766,"author_company":49,"featured_image":767,"seo_description":747,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":772,"formattedArticleDate":773},"1a2cce80-3ca7-4f1c-bec6-0e2084fb5515","2018-08-06 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,615,624,629,634,639,646,651,656,661,666,672,677,682,687,692,697,702,707,712,717,722,727,732,737,742],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"Fears over medium-term supply security of graphite and nickel for electric vehicles (EVs) is rising as auto makers begin to put their production plans into action.","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"Major EV manufacturers are beginning to ramp up their supply chain efforts in preparation for EV production between 2019 and 2021. Many new all-electric models are anticipated to enter the global market within this time frame, yet new mineral supply challenges are beginning to raise their head.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"The supply and demand imbalances in lithium and cobalt,  which have sent prices surging over the last three years are now well know and understood by the auto industry. Many producers now feel comfortable that the supply of the right grade of material in the right volumes will be available to the supply chain within the medium term.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"The supply over graphite and nickel sulphate, key components in the anode and cathode, respectively, has come under scrutiny in H1 2018 and are now starting to be contested.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"Pressure on graphite anode supply has increased owing to China’s environmental crackdown on flake feedstock mines within the country. Not every type of flake graphite feedstock is suitable for the anode material that is used in EV battery cells and the closures of these suitable mines can cause an unexpected supply shock to an EV producer.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"Flake mines in Heilongjiang and Shandong – China’s two most important producing graphite provinces – have been subject to inspections, delays and closures as they fall foul of new strict air quality laws.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"This has closed some capacity  in both regions and, in a bid to fall within the new laws, has increased production costs as miners and processors install new equipment.",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":579},"The legislation is a deliberate move by China to push the country away from flake graphite mining and beneficiation and towards value added production such as expandable and anode material. This has been reflected in anode expansions at Zichen and Shinzoom which began in May.",{"type":574,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618,620,622],{"text":619,"type":579},"The prices of anode material assessed by ",{"text":621,"type":579},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence",{"text":623,"type":579}," also tells a similar story.",{"type":574,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":579},"In 2018, the mid-point price 15-micron, uncoated spherical graphite, 99.95% C has increased from $3,000/tonne in January to $3,400 in June with a high point of $3,500/tonne.",{"type":574,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":579},"It is quite an intriguing situation considering EV battery demand within China has been softer in H1 2018 yet graphite anode prices have been moving upwards – the opposite direction to lithium and cobalt.",{"type":574,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":579},"The majority of market participants expecting a significant increase in demand in the second half of the year and with it stronger anode prices.",{"type":640,"attrs":641,"content":643},"heading",{"level":642,"textAlign":49},3,[644],{"text":645,"type":579},"SMM in battery nickel push",{"type":574,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":579},"Nickel is another challenge that auto makers are also now focusing on.",{"type":574,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":579},"The shift to higher nickel containing NCM cathodes, especially 523 and 622, has seen battery grade nickel chemical demand spike in the last 18 months.",{"type":574,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":579},"In H1 2018, there has been a clear shift both in demand and sentiment from nickel producers that the lithium ion battery era has now arrived in the industry.",{"type":574,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":579},"The issue is not with nickel metal – the mass produced commodity of which 2.1m tonnes which is produced predominately in Canada, Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the Philippines – but with nickel sulphate, a more niche chemical that is produced in China and Indonesia.",{"type":574,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669,670],{"text":621,"type":579},{"text":671,"type":579}," expects nickel demand from batteries to increase by 23% – from 65,000 tpa in 2017 to 85,000 tpa – without the structure of the supply side changing in any major way.",{"type":574,"attrs":673,"content":674},{"textAlign":49},[675],{"text":676,"type":579},"For non-Chinese processed material, EV producers have been limited to suppliers such as Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) which mines nickel for batteries at its Rio Tuba and Taganito mines in the Philippines. It then processes it into nickel sulphate, nickel hydroxide and other battery chemicals at specialist plants in Isoura, located in Japan’s south-east close to Kochi, in the country’s north near Sapporo.",{"type":574,"attrs":678,"content":679},{"textAlign":49},[680],{"text":681,"type":579},"SMM has been one of the world’s leading suppliers of battery grade nickel products for many years and is presently expanding production to meet new aggressive EV targets. The company is planning to expand its nickel sulphate output from 55,000 tpa in 2016 to 80,000 tpa by the end of this year.",{"type":574,"attrs":683,"content":684},{"textAlign":49},[685],{"text":686,"type":579},"Other commodity majors have been attempting to pivot their nickel business towards lithium ion batteries including BHP Billiton, Vale, and Russia’s Nornickel.",{"type":574,"attrs":688,"content":689},{"textAlign":49},[690],{"text":691,"type":579},"China, despite being a processor and producer of nickel sulphate, is also preparing the landscape for a significant increase in imports.",{"type":574,"attrs":693,"content":694},{"textAlign":49},[695],{"text":696,"type":579},"At the start of this year, China’s Ministry of Finance cut import duties on nickel sulphate from 5.5% to 2% while duty on melting grade nickel cathode material for the steel market, was doubled from 1% to 2%.",{"type":574,"attrs":698,"content":699},{"textAlign":49},[700],{"text":701,"type":579},"The question that remains to be answered is: how much new nickel sulphate capacity will make its way into China or to rest of the world? It is just one battlefield of many that the world’s auto producers are contesting in the race for EV dominance.",{"type":640,"attrs":703,"content":704},{"level":642,"textAlign":49},[705],{"text":706,"type":579},"Nickel hungry batterymegafactories rise",{"type":574,"attrs":708,"content":709},{"textAlign":49},[710],{"text":711,"type":579},"The rise of the lithium ion battery megafactories – as tracked by Benchmark in its new subscription service – is adding significant pressure on both graphite and nickel this year and to the end-2021.",{"type":574,"attrs":713,"content":714},{"textAlign":49},[715],{"text":716,"type":579},"Benchmark’s pipeline lithium ion battery capacity out to 2028 stood at 998.5GWh in July 2018. This translates to 475,000 tonnes of nickel sulphate, dwarfing today’s market size by over 5-times and, 1.06m tonnes of graphite anode, a  9-fold increase on 2017.",{"type":574,"attrs":718,"content":719},{"textAlign":49},[720],{"text":721,"type":579},"This data is based on the assumption that every planned battery megafactory comes onstream on time and operates at 100% capacity – all of which is not going to happen.",{"type":574,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725],{"text":726,"type":579},"But the trend is compelling.",{"type":574,"attrs":728,"content":729},{"textAlign":49},[730],{"text":731,"type":579},"Not only are the number of megafactories in the pipeline increasing together with planned cell capacity, but all new plants are zeroing in on 522, 623 and 811 cathode chemistries. In simple terms, nickel is increasing from 33% content of the NCM cathode material in a lithium ion battery to at least 50% and as high as 80%.",{"type":574,"attrs":733,"content":734},{"textAlign":49},[735],{"text":736,"type":579},"In an NCA battery chemistry, the nickel content can now be as high as 85% of the cathode. This is an incredible rise for nickel which is inadvertently becoming a star battery of the lithium ion show which has previously favoured lithium and cobalt.",{"type":574,"attrs":738,"content":739},{"textAlign":49},[740],{"text":741,"type":579},"And the way the lithium ion battery landscape is developing, China’s position is strengthening for both nickel and anode material. Benchmark estimates that 54% of lithium ion cell production capacity by 2028 will be in China. At present, the country produces 100% of natural graphite anode which is 65% of today’s market and the lowest cost anode material.",{"type":574,"attrs":743,"content":744},{"textAlign":49},[745],{"text":746,"type":579},"This together with China’s movements to reduce import barriers on nickel sulphate and ramp up its own domestic production means that for the two lesser known inputs into a lithium ion battery. China is putting itself in a dominant position.","Fears over medium-term supply security of graphite and nickel for electric vehicles (EVs) is rising as auto makers begin to put their production plans into action. Major EV manufacturers are beginning to ramp up their supply chain efforts in preparation for EV production between 2019 and 2021. Many new all-electric models are anticipated to enter the global market within this time frame, yet new mineral supply […]",[749],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":750},{"job_title":565,"image":751,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"1a2cce80-3ca7-4f1c-bec6-0e2084fb5515\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[755,758,761,764],{"slug":756,"name":757},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":759,"name":760},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":762,"name":763},"graphite","Graphite",{"slug":765,"name":150},"nickel","private",{"id":49,"alt":768,"name":768,"focus":768,"title":768,"source":768,"filename":769,"copyright":768,"fieldtype":770,"meta_data":771,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/eb0c63c59e/bm-screen-shot-2018-08-06-at-150539.png","asset",{"alt":768,"title":768,"source":768,"copyright":768},"Aug 06, 2018","6th August 2018",[],[],1792773944244]