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China reached  peak graphite?","has-china-reached-peak-graphite","article/has-china-reached-peak-graphite",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":683,"featured":50,"reporter":684,"_editable":688,"component":689,"seo_title":553,"categories":690,"visibility":700,"author_company":49,"featured_image":701,"seo_description":683,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":706,"formattedArticleDate":707},"76c5fb43-6e75-481d-b75d-14b5a987a1ef","2016-07-20 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,615,620,625,630,635,640,645,650,653,658,663,668,673,678],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579}," China’s global share of natural graphite output falls to mid-1990 levels leaving questions over future policy of raw material exports from the world’s leading producer ","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"China’s share of global natural graphite output has fallen to levels not seen since the mid-1990s when the country started ramping up exports to international markets.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"According to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, China has seen output fall to 70% of the world’s share from an all-time high of 85% in 2011.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"This raises the question: has the world seen peak graphite production from the world’s leading supplier?",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"2014 was notable for the Chinese graphite industry as it consolidated and modernised its flake graphite operations and cut its production of amorphous graphite.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"Both forms of natural graphite contributed to the country’s significant output levels in recent years, which reached levels of as high as 800,000 tpa. But this figure has now fallen by at least 40% as the country recalibrates its domestic steel industry, modernises its mining operations and focuses its future on higher value manufacturing.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"As a result of these trends, Benchmark believes we have seen the height of natural graphite supply from China. However, this will be a steady process which cuts output levels to between 50-60% of global production over the next 3-5 years.",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":579},"Therefore, China will continue to be the world’s number one supplier of both flake and amorphous graphite in the long term.",{"type":574,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":579},"The country is, however, likely to attempt to significantly slow exports of graphite concentrate in favour of greater domestic consumption and value added products including coated, battery anode materials and graphene.",{"type":574,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":579},"Existing demand from steel markets is expected to continue with low growth rates of 1-3% a year, therefore the industry will turn to the battery sector for the bulk of new demand which Benchmark expects to be significantly greater than that of refractories.",{"type":574,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":579},"The main reason for the decline in output since the highs of 2011 is the decline in demand for flake graphite’s volume product of medium flake and fines sold into industrial markets, in particular steel and refractories.",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"The international market for natural graphite began its decline in 2012, while China’s demand has only slumped in the last 18 months.",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":579},"If China had not slowed domestically then we would have likely seen a flake graphite output rebound close to previous highs, but China has changed and its hunger for huge volumes of metals and minerals is no longer what it was.",{"type":574,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":579},"The amorphous market has been hit hardest by the Chinese slowdown.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"Domestic output has fallen significantly from highs of 400,000 tpa to under 200,000 tpa in 2014. This has somewhat skewed the overall figures for global natural graphite production.",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":654,"content":655},{"textAlign":49},[656],{"text":657,"type":579},"Benchmark believes the decline in flake graphite consumption from 2011-2014 has been in the region of 20%.",{"type":574,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"textAlign":49},[661],{"text":662,"type":579},"If the flake market is viewed in more granular detail by grade then the story becomes more complex with medium flake graphite demand falling the most, while large flake of +80 mesh and +50 mesh has either stabilised or increased in the last two years.",{"type":574,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"textAlign":49},[666],{"text":667,"type":579},"With China seeking to close many of the older, large flake graphite mines in Shandong province, there are likely to be restrictions in the supply of large flake product over the longer term assuming no new supply enters the market.",{"type":574,"attrs":669,"content":670},{"textAlign":49},[671],{"text":672,"type":579},"Considering these supply-side restrictions, and with four battery megafactories slated to come onstream in the next three years, the question is: will the natural graphite industry be able supply these new projects or will buyers have to turn to its synthetic counterpart?",{"type":574,"attrs":674,"content":675},{"textAlign":49},[676],{"text":677,"type":579},"It also raises the point of where new supply will come from to satisfy existing markets let alone the emergence of a potentially huge market in batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"textAlign":49},[681],{"text":682,"type":579},"Regardless of what the future holds, one thing is clear in the present: the days of low cost, abundant graphite from China are over.","China’s global share of natural graphite output falls to mid-1990 levels leaving questions over future policy of raw material exports from the world’s leading producer",[685],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":686},{"job_title":565,"image":687,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"76c5fb43-6e75-481d-b75d-14b5a987a1ef\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[691,694,697],{"slug":692,"name":693},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":695,"name":696},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":698,"name":699},"graphite","Graphite","private",{"id":49,"alt":702,"name":702,"focus":702,"title":702,"source":702,"filename":703,"copyright":702,"fieldtype":704,"meta_data":705,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/a3da9045ed/bm-blackdragongraphitemine.png","asset",{"alt":702,"title":702,"source":702,"copyright":702},"Jul 20, 2016","20th July 2016",[],[],1792773947859]