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critical cobalt been overlooked?","has-critical-cobalt-been-overlooked","article/has-critical-cobalt-been-overlooked",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":578,"featured":50,"reporter":745,"_editable":749,"component":750,"seo_title":553,"categories":751,"visibility":760,"author_company":49,"featured_image":761,"seo_description":578,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":766,"formattedArticleDate":767},"75bb514b-1184-4c94-8acb-a0ddff569160","2016-07-21 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,615,620,625,630,635,640,645,650,655,660,665,670,675,680,685,690,695,700,705,710,715,720,725,730,735,740],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"With the discussion over a new energy revolution, lithium ion batteries, and energy storage reaching fever pitch in 2016, it has begged the curious question: why has cobalt been overlooked?","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"Cobalt is a critical component to a lithium ion battery.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"While less is used in a battery than its lithium, graphite and nickel counterparts, cobalt still makes up an average of 10-15% of the cathode and, importantly, it has historically been the most price volatile.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"There are two reasons why cobalt is not hitting the headlines: the first being the fact that the price is (still) very low compared to past performance and, the second, is that it is not called a ‘cobalt ion battery’.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"Tackling the second point first, something as simple as a name may seem like a flippant comment, but it has been the talk of the town not only in cobalt but also in the graphite and nickel industries.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"Why are these industries, which also serve the red hot battery market, not getting the lithium treatment?",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"Lithium has taken nearly all of the limelight for, mainly, justifiable reasons which include the extreme price spikes and the supply shortage of both key battery grades of material.",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":579},"However, the fact that it is logical for the investment community to relate lithium to a lithium ion battery and that it is geologically easy to find has given the lithium bull extra charge.",{"type":574,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":579},"Cobalt, however, has rarely made it to the discussion table despite a facing numerous serious supply and demand problems over the coming years and considering its criticality in modern day lithium ion cathodes.",{"type":574,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":579},"At Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, we focus on three main battery cathode materials that we believe will be the mainstays of the industry over the next decade.",{"type":574,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":579},"Whether you analyse LCO (Lithium Cobalt Oxide), NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) or NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminium), cobalt is critical to all three options to a varying degree.",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"The most intensive cathode technology, LCO, can be up to 50% cobalt but this is being phased out by NCA and, especially, NMC cathodes which can contain 10-15% cobalt content.",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":579},"While it is true that battery producers are seeking to reduced their cobalt consumption, Benchmark believes the element will always be used in a lithium ion battery and the massive growth in the sector will more offset any consumption rate changes.",{"type":574,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":579},"To a new industry entrant, the amounts of cobalt used in a battery may seem like an insignificant additive, but in the context of the niche cobalt industry – which in 2015 was around 100,000 tonnes – it is a major market.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"The lithium ion battery industry has seen cobalt demand grow by three fold in the last five years to a market size of 45,000 tpa in 2015.",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":579},"And the real growth is yet to come.",{"type":574,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":579},"The Tesla Gigafactory 1 in Nevada will need an average of 7,000 tpa of cobalt at capacity – that is 15% of today’s market from one buyer, not taking into account any stockpiling the company will want to do.",{"type":574,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":579},"Batteries are by far the number one market for cobalt yet, curiously, the price is not driven by its chemical products but the cobalt metal used in a host of industrial applications.",{"type":574,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":579},"Cobalt prices have been low for some time languishing around $10-12/ lb, a far cry from the extreme peaks of February 2008 when they rocketed to $52/lb due to a supply shortage sparked by instability in the number one producing country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).",{"type":574,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":579},"And this brings us onto the second major issue that cobalt has to deal with in the next five years: 55% of the world’s cobalt supply is from the DRC’s copper and nickel mines.",{"type":574,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":579},"Firstly, a small percentage of this supply has been subject to intense scrutiny following the publication of an Amnesty International report which claimed it was sourced using child labour. It is a problem that cobalt will have to face as its usage grows with consumer products such as smartphones, tablets and laptops.",{"type":574,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":579},"But today, the even bigger problem is the lack of long term supply.",{"type":574,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":579},"With copper prices suffering and continuing its downward trend thanks to Brexit fallout, supply has been cut in the DRC resulting in less cobalt for the growing battery sector.",{"type":574,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":579},"While cobalt’s industrial markets slump, its hi-tech uses are surging and causing a conundrum for the industry’s suppliers.",{"type":574,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":579},"The question is when supply will return and it is only a question, at present, that can be answered by the copper industry rather than cobalt players.",{"type":574,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":579},"And that in a nutshell is cobalt’s constant challenge: it is mined as a by-product.",{"type":574,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"text":709,"type":579},"No cobalt dominant resources yet exist; geologically it is an associated mineral. This means developing new supply for a hi-tech era is one fraught with great capital risks. So bringing new mines on-stream is not a simple task.",{"type":574,"attrs":711,"content":712},{"textAlign":49},[713],{"text":714,"type":579},"And this is a situation that the biggest user of cobalt, China, is all too aware of.",{"type":574,"attrs":716,"content":717},{"textAlign":49},[718],{"text":719,"type":579},"It forced China Molybdenum into acquiring Freeport McMoran’s Tenke mine in the DRC for $2.65bn – its first foray into the industry.",{"type":574,"attrs":721,"content":722},{"textAlign":49},[723],{"text":724,"type":579},"It is a move which gives China majority control over the world’s cobalt supply, and just in time for a surge in its lithium ion battery output.",{"type":574,"attrs":726,"content":727},{"textAlign":49},[728],{"text":729,"type":579},"Only one cobalt producer, ERG (formerly ENRC), has committed to focusing on the lithium ion battery market, yet no firm plans have yet to come to the fore.",{"type":574,"attrs":731,"content":732},{"textAlign":49},[733],{"text":734,"type":579},"It leaves many buyers of battery grade cobalt questioning the medium term strategy of their suppliers and whether they are ready for a new era in lithium ion demand.",{"type":574,"attrs":736,"content":737},{"textAlign":49},[738],{"text":739,"type":579},"While batteries are a market that cobalt has been long familiar, the traditional nature of the industry means it will need more convincing and the only significant way this will happen is through price spikes.",{"type":574,"attrs":741,"content":742},{"textAlign":49},[743],{"text":744,"type":579},"And has cobalt’s hi-tech future creeps up on its industrial past and present, there is little doubt this is on the horizon and you will, once again, see cobalt grabbing the headlines.",[746],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":747},{"job_title":565,"image":748,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"75bb514b-1184-4c94-8acb-a0ddff569160\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[752,755,757],{"slug":753,"name":754},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":756,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":758,"name":759},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":762,"name":762,"focus":762,"title":762,"source":762,"filename":763,"copyright":762,"fieldtype":764,"meta_data":765,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/90bed7957d/bm-screen-shot-2016-07-21-at-142714.png","asset",{"alt":762,"title":762,"source":762,"copyright":762},"Jul 21, 2016","21st July 2016",[],[],1792773947323]