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lithium prices reached a bottom? ","have-lithium-prices-reached-a-bottom","article/have-lithium-prices-reached-a-bottom",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":823,"featured":51,"reporter":824,"_editable":828,"component":829,"seo_title":553,"categories":830,"visibility":832,"author_company":49,"featured_image":833,"seo_description":823,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":837,"formattedArticleDate":838},"5c996f86-57bd-4ca3-acb3-30ce78b47744","2024-03-12 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"lithium-prices","Lithium prices",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,593,598,608,613,618,623,636,645,650,655,667,674,681,692,697,704,709,714,719,726,731,736,741,746,751,756,761,773,778,789,798,803,808,813,818],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580,583,591],{"text":581,"type":582},"Prices for ","text",{"text":584,"type":582,"marks":585},"lithium chemicals",[586],{"type":587,"attrs":588},"link",{"href":589,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/lithium/portal/","url",{"text":592,"type":582}," in the Chinese domestic market rose in early March, raising hopes that a year-long market rout might be over. ",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":582},"Battery grade lithium carbonate prices in the Chinese domestic market rose by 11% w-o-w to reach RMB 106,000/tonne ($14,725) (EXW China), breaching the RMB 100,000/tonne threshold for the first time in 2024. ",{"type":577,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601,606],{"text":602,"type":582,"marks":603},"Prices",[604],{"type":587,"attrs":605},{"href":589,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},{"text":607,"type":582}," for lithium hydroxide rose by 5.4% to an average of RMB 88,500/tonne ($12,300) (EXW China) in the week to 6 March.",{"type":577,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":582},"Driving this change in sentiment is the expectation that battery production will increase this month, following a drawdown in cell inventories in China, pushing cathode makers to secure material on the spot market. ",{"type":577,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":582},"In addition, there are reports of Chinese environmental inspections on lithium production in Jiangxi province, which could see output slow from some Chinese producers. ",{"type":577,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":582},"Reflecting the change, lithium carbonate futures traded on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have risen over the past two weeks. The market is currently in contango, where future prices are higher than current prices. ",{"type":577,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626,628,634],{"text":627,"type":582},"Still, while the lithium price decline over the past year has been severe, Benchmark ",{"text":629,"type":582,"marks":630},"estimates",[631],{"type":587,"attrs":632},{"href":633,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/lithium/",{"text":635,"type":582}," that only around 13% of current lithium supply is uneconomic at current prices – much of which is from new integrated Chinese producers, who aren’t under the same pricing pressures as others in the market. ",{"type":577,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"type":640,"attrs":641},"image",{"id":49,"alt":642,"src":643,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":644},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/1e53c33a02/bm-13-lithium-loss-making.png",{},{"type":577,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":582},"As such the market is likely to be finely balanced this year, with lithium prices stabilising in the near term. ",{"type":577,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":582},"Lithium hydroxide prices are still double the average price in 2020, and most companies are still profitable, albeit margins have declined due to cost inflation. ",{"type":577,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658,660,665],{"text":659,"type":582},"Today’s price levels do, however, pose a much greater risk to prospective suppliers, with nearly one third of the ",{"text":661,"type":582,"marks":662},"forecasted",[663],{"type":587,"attrs":664},{"href":633,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},{"text":666,"type":582}," production from projects under development requiring higher prices to incentivise new expansions. ",{"type":577,"attrs":668,"content":669},{"textAlign":49},[670],{"type":640,"attrs":671},{"id":49,"alt":642,"src":672,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":673},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/68cefe3044/bm-lithium-carbonate-cost-curve.png",{},{"type":675,"attrs":676,"content":678},"heading",{"level":677,"textAlign":49},4,[679],{"text":680,"type":582},"Storing up a supply shortfall ",{"type":577,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684,686],{"text":685,"type":582},"Developments of greenfield projects required to meet the battery ambitions of the coming years have slowed following the downturn, putting a ",{"text":687,"type":582,"marks":688},"risk to much needed capacity expansions.",[689],{"type":587,"attrs":690},{"href":691,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-new-project-economics",{"type":577,"attrs":693,"content":694},{"textAlign":49},[695],{"text":696,"type":582},"While 2023 and 2024 supply growth was primarily from existing and brownfield project expansions, 2025 will see strong growth from greenfield projects, comprising 21% of new supply. While the market is expected to reenter a deficit position by 2029, this timeline is now likely to be significantly shortened as greenfield projects are delayed. ",{"type":577,"attrs":698,"content":699},{"textAlign":49},[700],{"type":640,"attrs":701},{"id":49,"alt":642,"src":702,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":703},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/f11f9a0efd/bm-new-projects-required-to-close-the-deficit.png",{},{"type":577,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"textAlign":49},[707],{"text":708,"type":582},"Importantly, this overall market deficit doesn’t represent the split between integrated and non-integrated operators, which impacts open market availability, or account for the quality of lithium chemicals finding their way to market, much of which is expected to be sub-optimal for battery applications as new facilities ramp-up and refine processes. ",{"type":577,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"textAlign":49},[712],{"text":713,"type":582},"Lower prices are also likely to increase demand and place further strain on the market. A modelled high-case demand scenario indicates that ~1Mt of additional demand could be added if OEM targets and government policy decisions were to eventuate. While the market is unlikely to reach a high-case scenario, lower prices could shift base-case demand higher. ",{"type":577,"attrs":715,"content":716},{"textAlign":49},[717],{"text":718,"type":582},"In sum, higher demand, stimulated by lower prices, combined with delayed greenfield project developments, could very quickly shift the lithium market balance. ",{"type":577,"attrs":720,"content":721},{"textAlign":49},[722],{"type":640,"attrs":723},{"id":49,"alt":642,"src":724,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":725},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/865dcd689a/bm-lithium-defict-graph-1.png",{},{"type":675,"attrs":727,"content":728},{"level":677,"textAlign":49},[729],{"text":730,"type":582},"What is happening with Chinese lepidolite? ",{"type":577,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"textAlign":49},[734],{"text":735,"type":582},"Lepidolite from Jiangxi, China, has been established as the marginal cost producer in the lithium market, primarily due to low ore grades (circa 0.2% Li2O). ",{"type":577,"attrs":737,"content":738},{"textAlign":49},[739],{"text":740,"type":582},"Costs range from around $16/kg to $27/kg, meaning that most of Jiangxi lepidolite is experiencing losses at today’s spot prices, according to Benchmark.",{"type":577,"attrs":742,"content":743},{"textAlign":49},[744],{"text":745,"type":582},"In addition, environmental investigations of lithium producers in Jiangxi province this month could add further costs, as they may be required to undertake additional processing of lithium slag. ",{"type":577,"attrs":747,"content":748},{"textAlign":49},[749],{"text":750,"type":582},"Benchmark has received indications this additional processing would cost approximately RMB 3,000-4,000/tonne of lithium carbonate extracted. ",{"type":577,"attrs":752,"content":753},{"textAlign":49},[754],{"text":755,"type":582},"Yet, despite this, company losses may be sustained for longer than expected, particularly for mines that are integrated with battery cell producers. ",{"type":577,"attrs":757,"content":758},{"textAlign":49},[759],{"text":760,"type":582},"Benchmark expects that mined lithium supply from Chinese mica is expected to increase by over 36% this year from 2023, despite the current price environment. ",{"type":577,"attrs":762,"content":763},{"textAlign":49},[764,766,771],{"text":765,"type":582},"As a result, the overall lithium market is set to be in a small surplus of around 8,000 tonnes this year, according to Benchmark’s ",{"text":767,"type":582,"marks":768},"Lithium Forecast",[769],{"type":587,"attrs":770},{"href":633,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},{"text":772,"type":582},". ",{"type":675,"attrs":774,"content":775},{"level":677,"textAlign":49},[776],{"text":777,"type":582},"How are non-China prices developing? ",{"type":577,"attrs":779,"content":780},{"textAlign":49},[781,782,787],{"text":581,"type":582},{"text":783,"type":582,"marks":784},"lithium",[785],{"type":587,"attrs":786},{"href":589,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},{"text":788,"type":582}," in Europe and North America are continuing to fall as price contract mechanisms update to reflect recent spot price trends in Asia, putting further pressure on new mines and plants in development. ",{"type":577,"attrs":790,"content":791},{"textAlign":49},[792,796],{"text":602,"type":582,"marks":793},[794],{"type":587,"attrs":795},{"href":589,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},{"text":797,"type":582}," for lithium hydroxide material out of North America fell by 8.3% during the assessment period, to reach an average of $13,750/tonne (FOB NA), due to particularly slow procurement interest from buyers.",{"type":577,"attrs":799,"content":800},{"textAlign":49},[801],{"text":802,"type":582},"In Asia, Benchmark assessed lithium carbonate contract prices on a CIF Asia basis falling moderately to an average of $15,000/tonne during the assessment period.",{"type":577,"attrs":804,"content":805},{"textAlign":49},[806],{"text":807,"type":582},"However, with major Japanese and Korean battery buyers consuming the majority of their lithium allocation under longer-term agreements, the average input price for many remains significantly higher than these levels and is likely to remain elevated for much of 2024. ",{"type":577,"attrs":809,"content":810},{"textAlign":49},[811],{"text":812,"type":582},"Increasing orders from these battery majors mean, even at these price levels, the world’s largest lithium producers are all still increasing supply output this year, as they predict demand growth will remain strong. ",{"type":577,"attrs":814,"content":815},{"textAlign":49},[816],{"text":817,"type":582},"Albemarle said it will increase sales volumes by between 10% to 20% in 2024, compared to 35% growth in 2023. While Chile’s SQM said it will increase supply by between 5% to 10%. ",{"type":577,"attrs":819,"content":820},{"textAlign":49},[821],{"text":822,"type":582},"Australia’s Pilbara Minerals said that it is on track to ramp up operations at its Pilgangoora project to 640,000-680,000 tonnes per year of spodumene concentrate by the third quarter. ","Prices for lithium chemicals in the Chinese domestic market rose in early March, raising hopes that a year-long market rout might be over. Battery grade lithium carbonate prices in the Chinese domestic market rose by 11% w-o-w to reach RMB 106,000/tonne ($14,725) (EXW China), breaching the RMB 100,000/tonne threshold for the first time in 2024. […]",[825],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":826},{"job_title":568,"image":827,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"5c996f86-57bd-4ca3-acb3-30ce78b47744\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[831],{"slug":783,"name":8},"private",{"id":49,"alt":642,"name":642,"focus":642,"title":642,"source":642,"filename":834,"copyright":642,"fieldtype":835,"meta_data":836,"is_external_url":51},"https://wp-admin.benchmarkminerals.com/app/uploads/lithium-atacama-scaled.jpg","asset",{"alt":642,"title":642,"source":642,"copyright":642},"Mar 12, 2024","12th March 2024",[],[],1792688576164]