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slowdown?","how-bad-is-the-electric-vehicle-slowdown","article/how-bad-is-the-electric-vehicle-slowdown",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":550,"content":560,"excerpt":785,"featured":51,"reporter":786,"_editable":790,"component":791,"seo_title":543,"categories":792,"visibility":802,"author_company":49,"featured_image":803,"seo_description":785,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":807,"formattedArticleDate":808},"a3e71004-7053-48bd-b079-15c6b2840b32","2024-08-05 00:00",[],[551],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":554},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":555,"image":556,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":557},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":561,"content":562},"doc",[563,570,585,590,595,602,607,612,617,622,627,636,643,648,661,666,671,678,685,690,695,700,710,717,722,727,738,743,750,755,760,768],{"type":564,"attrs":565,"content":566},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[567],{"text":568,"type":569},"This year a slowdown in the growth of electric vehicle sales has led to battery producers in Europe and elsewhere scaling back or cancelling their plans to expand production capacity. ","text",{"type":564,"attrs":571,"content":572},{"textAlign":49},[573,575,583],{"text":574,"type":569},"Between January and May this year, 220 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of gigafactory 2030 pipeline capacity has been cancelled or postponed, according to",{"text":576,"type":569,"marks":577}," Benchmark’s Gigafactory Assessment",[578],{"type":579,"attrs":580},"link",{"href":581,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":582},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/market-assessments/gigafactory-assessment/capacities","url",{"text":584,"type":569},".",{"type":564,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":569},"Media articles have also stoked fears about a slowdown in EV sales, and even the end of the electric vehicle boom. ",{"type":564,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":569},"But how bad is demand? Benchmark Source looks at the data.",{"type":596,"attrs":597,"content":599},"heading",{"level":598,"textAlign":49},4,[600],{"text":601,"type":569},"EV sales are still growing but China and hybrids are driving growth ",{"type":564,"attrs":603,"content":604},{"textAlign":49},[605],{"text":606,"type":569},"The electric vehicle market (including plug-in hybrids) has grown by 20% in the first half of this year, compared to the same period in 2023, according to Rho Motion. ",{"type":564,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":569},"But most of this growth is being driven by the Chinese market. Chinese sales have grown by 30% year-to-date, driven in part by plug-in hybrid sales. ",{"type":564,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":569},"In the first half of 2024, sales of PHEVs in China rose by 70% from a year earlier, compared to a 16% rise for battery electric vehicles. ",{"type":564,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620],{"text":621,"type":569},"The European EV market has only grown by 1% in the first half of this year compared to 2023, while sales in the largest automotive market of Germany have actually fallen. ",{"type":564,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625],{"text":626,"type":569},"EV sales in the US have grown by 9%, but from a lower base than Europe. ",{"type":564,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630],{"type":631,"attrs":632},"image",{"id":49,"alt":633,"src":634,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":635},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/e5e022c92d/bm-global-ev-sales-1h2024.png",{},{"type":564,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"type":631,"attrs":640},{"id":49,"alt":633,"src":641,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":642},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/a86994872f/bm-image-96-13440689415b.png",{},{"type":596,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"level":598,"textAlign":49},[646],{"text":647,"type":569},"Battery demand growth is driven by cheaper LFP cells ",{"type":564,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651,653,659],{"text":652,"type":569},"Lithium ion battery demand is still expected to increase by 35% this year, according to ",{"text":654,"type":569,"marks":655},"Benchmark’s Lithium Ion Battery Forecast",[656],{"type":579,"attrs":657},{"href":658,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":582},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/lithium-ion-batteries/",{"text":660,"type":569},". That’s an increase from Benchmark’s previous forecast of 32% growth. ",{"type":564,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":569},"Still – growth is heavily concentrated in China, which is set to account for half of demand this year. It’s also mostly in cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, used in lower priced EVs and energy storage. ",{"type":564,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":569},"In the first half of this year LFP cells accounted for 69% of China’s lithium ion installations, an increase of 39% compared to last year, according to official data.  ",{"type":564,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"type":631,"attrs":675},{"id":49,"alt":633,"src":676,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":677},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/1db8ae0cf5/bm-lithium-ion-battery-demand-growth-by-region-2.png",{},{"type":564,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"textAlign":49},[681],{"type":631,"attrs":682},{"id":49,"alt":633,"src":683,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":684},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/87eea83e37/bm-battery-cell-chemistry-by-market-share.png",{},{"type":596,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"level":598,"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":569},"Energy storage growth is helping prop up battery demand ",{"type":564,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":569},"The battery energy storage market is booming, especially in the US and China, as grid-scale installations are built to help grids integrate intermittent supplies of renewable energy. ",{"type":564,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":569},"ESS is set to account for 62 GWh of growth in demand this year, compared to 239 GWh for electric vehicles, according to Benchmark. ",{"type":564,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703,705,709],{"text":704,"type":569},"The ESS market is forecast to grow at a cumulative growth rate of 8% over the next 5 years, according to ",{"text":654,"type":569,"marks":706},[707],{"type":579,"attrs":708},{"href":658,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":582},{"text":584,"type":569},{"type":564,"attrs":711,"content":712},{"textAlign":49},[713],{"type":631,"attrs":714},{"id":49,"alt":633,"src":715,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":716},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/8852dd3fa8/bm-energy-storage-is-acclerating.png",{},{"type":596,"attrs":718,"content":719},{"level":598,"textAlign":49},[720],{"text":721,"type":569},"Cheaper battery prices are creating demand",{"type":564,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725],{"text":726,"type":569},"The bill of materials (BOM) that makes up roughly 60%-70% of costs for lithium ion batteries has fallen 55% year-over-year for production of cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells in China. Falling lithium carbonate prices are responsible for the majority of the decrease. ",{"type":564,"attrs":728,"content":729},{"textAlign":49},[730,732,737],{"text":731,"type":569},"Prices are down 71% Y-o-Y in China, which produced 99.7% of global LFP supply in 2024 according to Benchmark’s ",{"text":733,"type":569,"marks":734},"Lithium Ion Battery Forecast",[735],{"type":579,"attrs":736},{"href":658,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":582},{"text":584,"type":569},{"type":564,"attrs":739,"content":740},{"textAlign":49},[741],{"text":742,"type":569},"For NCM 811, the bill of materials is 53% lower than last year. This is down to lithium, nickel and cobalt, which make up 56% of raw material costs, experiencing a significant decline in prices over the past year. Lithium hydroxide has fallen 82% from its peak in January 2023. Sluggish demand and robust inventory across the supply chain were the main drivers of this price decline.",{"type":564,"attrs":744,"content":745},{"textAlign":49},[746],{"type":631,"attrs":747},{"id":49,"alt":633,"src":748,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":749},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/1a995ab2b6/bm-battery-costs-have-fallen-sharply.png",{},{"type":564,"attrs":751,"content":752},{"textAlign":49},[753],{"text":754,"type":569},"Moreover, technological advancements in cell performance are driving costs lower at a $/kWh level. This trend is expected to continue as China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued draft regulations, setting out a required increase in energy density standards for all types of cells compared to the 2021 edition.",{"type":596,"attrs":756,"content":757},{"level":598,"textAlign":49},[758],{"text":759,"type":569},"Join us at Benchmark Week 2024",{"type":564,"attrs":761,"content":762},{"textAlign":49},[763],{"text":764,"type":569,"marks":765},"Benchmark Week will return to Los Angeles on 12-14 November 2024, bringing global industry leaders, financiers and government officials together to chart a course for the technologies and supply chains central to the energy transition.",[766],{"type":767},"italic",{"type":564,"attrs":769,"content":770},{"textAlign":49},[771,775,782],{"text":772,"type":569,"marks":773},"Join us at Benchmark Week to forge connections, identify future partners and unlock market opportunities. ",[774],{"type":767},{"text":776,"type":569,"marks":777},"Purchase your tickets today",[778,781],{"type":579,"attrs":779},{"href":780,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":582},"https://benchmarkevents.benchmarkminerals.com/benchmarkweek2024",{"type":767},{"text":584,"type":569,"marks":783},[784],{"type":767},"This year a slowdown in the growth of electric vehicle sales has led to battery producers in Europe and elsewhere scaling back or cancelling their plans to expand production capacity. Between January and May this year, 220 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of gigafactory 2030 pipeline capacity has been cancelled or postponed, according to Benchmark’s Gigafactory Assessment. Media […]",[787],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":788},{"job_title":555,"image":789,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},{"filename":557},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"a3e71004-7053-48bd-b079-15c6b2840b32\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[793,796,799],{"slug":794,"name":795},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":797,"name":798},"ess","ESS",{"slug":800,"name":801},"ev","EV","private",{"id":49,"alt":633,"name":633,"focus":633,"title":633,"source":633,"filename":804,"copyright":633,"fieldtype":805,"meta_data":806,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/d296f8bfd8/bm-french-ev.jpg","asset",{"alt":633,"title":633,"source":633,"copyright":633},"Aug 05, 2024","5th August 2024",[],[],1783682669685]