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seriously should we take Glencore’s cobalt goals?","how-seriously-should-we-take-glencores-cobalt-goals","article/how-seriously-should-we-take-glencores-cobalt-goals",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":716,"featured":50,"reporter":717,"_editable":721,"component":722,"seo_title":553,"categories":723,"visibility":732,"author_company":49,"featured_image":733,"seo_description":716,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":738,"formattedArticleDate":739},"940321b6-1304-44ca-baea-8c830b41adc0","2018-02-23 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"glencore","Glencore",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,598,603,608,615,620,627,632,637,642,647,650,657,662,667,674,679,684,693,698,703,711],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"by Caspar Rawles","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"In December 2017, mining giant Glencore – the world’s largest cobalt producer, – shocked the industry by releasing the first official guidance figures for the restart of the upgraded Katanga Mining operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"The official production guidance figures are as below and as a percentage of global output in 2017:",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":582},"These numbers are much higher than previously expected with the company stating a production target of 20,000 tonnes as recently as the summer of 2017.",{"type":577,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601],{"text":602,"type":582},"The numbers are also significant when compared with a total refined market of around 93,000 tonnes in 2017. If Glencore manage to produce the volumes they forecast the project has the potential to heavily impact the supply/demand curve in the near and midterm, even outstripping their own demand expectations.",{"type":577,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":582},"The company stated they expect cobalt demand from the EV sector and grid storage to have increased by 24,000 tonnes by 2020.",{"type":609,"attrs":610,"content":612},"heading",{"level":611,"textAlign":49},3,[613],{"text":614,"type":582},"Impact",{"type":577,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":582},"If these targets are met the volumes would mean the cobalt market could be in a state of surplus until the mid 2020’s and the fears over security of supply would quickly be eased. The move also has the potential to stabile prices which had been rising quickly throughout 2017. But a number of industry players close to Benchmark commented on the announcement, highlighting that perhaps there were more to these revised targets than suggested. Some of these considerations are outlined below:",{"type":577,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623,625],{"text":624,"type":582},"Timing:",{"text":626,"type":582}," Glencore made the announcement at a time when cobalt prices were at their highest levels since the price surge of 2008 and going through some of their most rapid rises in 2017.",{"type":577,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630],{"text":631,"type":582},"Whilst producers have been enjoying the recent high prices in the market, rapid increases alongside longer term high levels can be seen negatively by cobalt producers.",{"type":577,"attrs":633,"content":634},{"textAlign":49},[635],{"text":636,"type":582},"Producers are of the belief that if prices continue to rise and stay high over the long term this will accelerate investment into developing high nickel/low cobalt cathode technology and decrease long term cobalt demand.",{"type":577,"attrs":638,"content":639},{"textAlign":49},[640],{"text":641,"type":582},"Furthermore, rapid price increases can destabilise clients who are not ready to accept the new prices, and aren’t yet in a position to shift the increases onto their client base.",{"type":577,"attrs":643,"content":644},{"textAlign":49},[645],{"text":646,"type":582},"Some commented that the high production figures were released at a time when Glencore wished to cool the rapidly rising market by easing fears over the availability of cobalt raw material, which was a key factor in driving prices higher throughout 2017.",{"type":577,"attrs":648,"content":649},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":577,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653,655],{"text":654,"type":582},"Demand:",{"text":656,"type":582}," By Glencore’s own admission, its production has the potential to outstrip demand if they were able to meet the levels indicated in the announcement.",{"type":577,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":582},"Whilst Glencore has interest in keeping prices in check, it is highly unlikely that they would want to see prices decrease significantly either, it is hard to see a scenario where a miner would flood the market with excess material and drive down prices.",{"type":577,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[665],{"text":666,"type":582},"For this reason, the move has also been seen by some as a political play to ease worries about medium term supply of cobalt to the battery market, helping Glencore market themselves as one of the handful of guaranteed clean cobalt producers from the DRC with abundant supply in the near term.",{"type":577,"attrs":668,"content":669},{"textAlign":49},[670,672],{"text":671,"type":582},"Pace of growth:",{"text":673,"type":582}," Questions were also raised regarding the timeline for such significant production and whether Glencore will be able to ramp up as quickly as outlined.",{"type":577,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677],{"text":678,"type":582},"Taking the example of Mutanda (Glencore’s other DRC asset), the project took approximately 5 years to ramp up to a production of 24,500 tpa, far below that forecasted for Katanga. At the time Glencore did not have the incentive of today’s high prices, but to be able to produce nearly 40% more material than at Mutanda in a space of less than a year would be an impressive feat, particularly in a nation with the power and infrastructure problems of the DRC.",{"type":609,"attrs":680,"content":681},{"level":611,"textAlign":49},[682],{"text":683,"type":582},"No cobalt flood",{"type":577,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"textAlign":49},[687,689,691],{"text":688,"type":582},"Despite these factors cobalt production from Katanga will be higher than previously expected. ",{"text":690,"type":582},"Benchmark",{"text":692,"type":582}," believe that achievable production in the timeframe (assuming there will be no major issues bringing the cobalt circuit online) will be significant enough to keep the market in slight surplus until the early 2020s.",{"type":577,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":582},"But this does not mean that we expect prices to return to $25,000/tonne, as they were at the start of 2016. In fact, we expect little by way of price decreases for battery-grade material.",{"type":577,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":582},"Any additional volumes of material released to the market by Glencore will be stockpiled by those with the capital and ability to do so in preparation for the return to market deficit.",{"type":577,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706,708,709],{"text":707,"type":582},"Katanga’s production will help to stabilise prices over the coming years, but as we approach the early to mid 2020’s – where ",{"text":690,"type":582},{"text":710,"type":582}," forecasts the true ramp up of lithium ion demand will be in full swing – there is still a big question mark on how the supply side response will meet demand. Benchmark expects 2017 global cobalt production will need to roughly double by 2025 to meet the forecasted growth in global demand across all sectors.",{"type":577,"attrs":712,"content":713},{"textAlign":49},[714],{"text":715,"type":582},"Without further significant investments from the incumbents and public and private investment in exploration and development projects, Glencore have merely pushed the supply deficit cliff edge back slightly.","by Caspar Rawles In December 2017, mining giant Glencore – the world’s largest cobalt producer, – shocked the industry by releasing the first official guidance figures for the restart of the upgraded Katanga Mining operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The official production guidance figures are as below and as a percentage […]",[718],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":719},{"job_title":568,"image":720,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"940321b6-1304-44ca-baea-8c830b41adc0\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[724,727,729],{"slug":725,"name":726},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":728,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":730,"name":731},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":734,"name":734,"focus":734,"title":734,"source":734,"filename":735,"copyright":734,"fieldtype":736,"meta_data":737,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/ccc6b04e6a/bm-screen-shot-2018-02-23-at-135712.png","asset",{"alt":734,"title":734,"source":734,"copyright":734},"Feb 23, 2018","23rd February 2018",[],[],1792688598782]