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Economics",{"filename":572},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":576,"content":577},"doc",[578,603,622,627,640,647,660,665,674,687,700,705,713,758,766,771,776,781,786,791,796,801,821,834,847,852],{"type":579,"attrs":580,"content":581},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[582,585,593,595,601],{"text":583,"type":584},"Benchmark analysis shows that notably 65% of next year’s ","text",{"text":586,"type":584,"marks":587},"refined nickel",[588],{"type":589,"attrs":590},"link",{"href":591,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/infographic-chinas-influence-over-indonesian-nickel","url",{"text":594,"type":584}," supply, a quarter of ",{"text":596,"type":584,"marks":597},"natural graphite supply",[598],{"type":589,"attrs":599},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/natural-graphite-market-dominated-by-oversupply-2023-in-review",{"text":602,"type":584}," and over 70% of ex-China battery supply is forecast to come from countries with elections in 2024–the biggest year in the history of elections.",{"type":579,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606,608,613,615,620],{"text":607,"type":584},"The incumbent political parties of both the ",{"text":561,"type":584,"marks":609},[610],{"type":589,"attrs":611},{"href":612,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/lg-chem-gm-cathode-deal-illustrates-successes-of-ira-supply-chain-buildout",{"text":614,"type":584}," and the ",{"text":558,"type":584,"marks":616},[617],{"type":589,"attrs":618},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/can-the-eu-meet-its-proposed-battery-metals-recycling-targets",{"text":621,"type":584}," (EU) and the EU member states have deployed vast and far-reaching policies that have already impacted the battery industry, but with new leaders set to be decided this year the future direction of these policies could change.",{"type":579,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625],{"text":626,"type":584},"There is the potential for elections to be a disruptive force, which could lead to reluctance from investors to make decisions until the geopolitical fallout is clear.",{"type":579,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630,632,638],{"text":631,"type":584},"“The elections this year could add or subtract momentum from the energy transition which would presumably feed into investors’ appetite to invest in critical minerals and battery supply chains,” ",{"text":633,"type":584,"marks":634},"Bryan Bille",[635],{"type":589,"attrs":636},{"href":637,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/video/watch/analyst-insights-how-do-export-restrictions-and-green-industrial-policies-impact-ev-battery-supply-chain-dynamics",{"text":639,"type":584},", a policy analyst at Benchmark, said.",{"type":641,"attrs":642,"content":644},"heading",{"level":643,"textAlign":49},4,[645],{"text":646,"type":584},"Which battery supply chain sectors are exposed most to elections?",{"type":579,"attrs":648,"content":649},{"textAlign":49},[650,652,658],{"text":651,"type":584},"Benchmark’s ",{"text":653,"type":584,"marks":654},"Lithium ion Battery Database",[655],{"type":589,"attrs":656},{"href":657,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/lithium-ion-batteries/reports",{"text":659,"type":584}," forecasts that 82% of next year’s battery production will come from China. However, over 70% of ex-China production is forecast to be located in countries heading to the polls this year.",{"type":579,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":584},"The US and several EU countries account for most of this, though the UK is an emerging player in this space that is also expected to hold an election this year.",{"type":579,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"type":669,"attrs":670},"image",{"id":49,"alt":671,"src":672,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":673},"71% of ex-China battery supply in 2025 is from countries with an election this year","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/00a6c95820/bm-battery-cells-elections-impact.png",{},{"type":579,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677,679,685],{"text":678,"type":584},"Indonesia is by far the largest producer of nickel, with ",{"text":680,"type":584,"marks":681},"Benchmark forecasting",[682],{"type":589,"attrs":683},{"href":684,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/nickel/reports",{"text":686,"type":584}," the country to account for 59% of mined nickel and 55% of refined nickel in 2025.",{"type":579,"attrs":688,"content":689},{"textAlign":49},[690,692,698],{"text":691,"type":584},"Prabowo Subianto has been confirmed as ",{"text":693,"type":584,"marks":694},"Indonesia’s president-elect",[695],{"type":589,"attrs":696},{"href":697,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/video/watch/analyst-insights-how-could-the-elections-in-the-drc-and-indonesia-impact-the-cobalt-and-nickel-markets",{"text":699,"type":584},". Given Prabowo’s rhetoric, that he received the backing of the current President Joko Widodo, and that Joko’s eldest son is the new vice president-elect, it is expected that there will be a level of continuity of existing nickel policies.",{"type":579,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":584},"However, Prabowo is characterised by some as having an illiberal profile with Bille saying that some experts say he may “pose a threat to the continuation of democracy in the country.” This could have political repercussions for Indonesia’s economy and investment attractiveness.",{"type":579,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"type":669,"attrs":709},{"id":49,"alt":710,"src":711,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":712},"Most of next year's upstream nickel supply will come from countries with an election this year","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/c06535a538/bm-nickel-elections-impact.png",{},{"type":579,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716,718,724,726,732,734,740,742,748,750,756],{"text":717,"type":584},"In ",{"text":719,"type":584,"marks":720},"natural graphite",[721],{"type":589,"attrs":722},{"href":723,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/esg-of-graphite-how-do-synthetic-graphite-and-natural-graphite-compare",{"text":725,"type":584},", ",{"text":727,"type":584,"marks":728},"Mozambique",[729],{"type":589,"attrs":730},{"href":731,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/syrah-posco-offtake-agreement-highlights-appetite-for-ex-china-flake-graphite",{"text":733,"type":584}," and ",{"text":735,"type":584,"marks":736},"Madagascar",[737],{"type":589,"attrs":738},{"href":739,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/madagascar-to-boost-supply-of-ex-china-graphite-for-batteries",{"text":741,"type":584}," are the largest producers of the mineral outside of China, with 11% of forecast 2025 production each, according to ",{"text":743,"type":584,"marks":744},"Benchmark’s Natural Graphite Forecast",[745],{"type":589,"attrs":746},{"href":747,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/natural-graphite/reports",{"text":749,"type":584},". Both ",{"text":751,"type":584,"marks":752},"African countries",[753],{"type":589,"attrs":754},{"href":755,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/flake-graphite-production-in-africa-set-to-overtake-china-this-decade",{"text":757,"type":584}," have elections this year.",{"type":579,"attrs":759,"content":760},{"textAlign":49},[761],{"type":669,"attrs":762},{"id":49,"alt":763,"src":764,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":765},"A quarter of flake graphite supply in 2025 is forecast to come from countries with elections in 2024","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/f15a4f7ef5/bm-natural-graphite-elections-impact.png",{},{"type":641,"attrs":767,"content":768},{"level":643,"textAlign":49},[769],{"text":770,"type":584},"Ten elections to watch this year",{"type":579,"attrs":772,"content":773},{"textAlign":49},[774],{"text":775,"type":584},"Although many countries with elections this year have small levels of production across different aspects of the supply chain, the table below highlights ten key elections to watch.",{"type":641,"attrs":777,"content":778},{"level":643,"textAlign":49},[779],{"text":780,"type":584},"Elections could disrupt policy direction",{"type":579,"attrs":782,"content":783},{"textAlign":49},[784],{"text":785,"type":584},"Several of the elections happening this year are in countries with major policies associated with the build out of battery and critical mineral supply chains.",{"type":579,"attrs":787,"content":788},{"textAlign":49},[789],{"text":790,"type":584},"Some of these policies have an industrial and resource nationalist flavour, with a bigger role for the state, a theme Bille is seeing across this year’s elections, especially in resource-rich emerging economies.",{"type":579,"attrs":792,"content":793},{"textAlign":49},[794],{"text":795,"type":584},"“The goal of resource nationalist policies is to generate more local added value from mining minerals and move up the battery value chain,” Bille said.",{"type":579,"attrs":797,"content":798},{"textAlign":49},[799],{"text":800,"type":584},"Indonesia, which went to the polls earlier this year, has a resource nationalist nickel policy, banning the exports of unprocessed nickel.",{"type":579,"attrs":802,"content":803},{"textAlign":49},[804,806,812,813,819],{"text":805,"type":584},"In the West, the ",{"text":807,"type":584,"marks":808},"US Inflation Reduction Act",[809],{"type":589,"attrs":810},{"href":811,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/us-safeguards-long-term-lithium-supply-with-multi-billion-dollar-lithium-americas-loan",{"text":614,"type":584},{"text":814,"type":584,"marks":815},"EU’s ",[816],{"type":589,"attrs":817},{"href":818,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/european-companies-must-look-upstream-for-eu-critical-minerals-support",{"text":820,"type":584},"suite of policies including the Critical Raw Materials Act are industrial policies, seeking to friendshore and localise production across the whole battery supply chain.",{"type":579,"attrs":822,"content":823},{"textAlign":49},[824,826,832],{"text":825,"type":584},"The US especially has an anti-China sentiment in its policies, though the exact interpretation of the of ",{"text":827,"type":584,"marks":828},"foreign entity of concern",[829],{"type":589,"attrs":830},{"href":831,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/role-of-private-overseas-chinese-companies-key-to-us-ev-tax-credits",{"text":833,"type":584}," (FEOC) aspect of the IRA could be decided by whoever takes office after the 2024 elections.",{"type":579,"attrs":835,"content":836},{"textAlign":49},[837,839,845],{"text":838,"type":584},"“Players like the US have obviously recognized security concerns that have led to conscious policy decisions to disincentivise integration with ‘risky’ players like China even if that has implications for cost,” Bille said. “The US election could disrupt EV incentives in the US through tightening of anti-China guidance in the ",{"text":840,"type":584,"marks":841},"FEOC requirements",[842],{"type":589,"attrs":843},{"href":844,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":592},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/automakers-us-government-guidance-on-chinese-involvement-in-battery-supply-chain",{"text":846,"type":584}," for 30D tax credits.”",{"type":579,"attrs":848,"content":849},{"textAlign":49},[850],{"text":851,"type":584},"Within the policy space, a key trend to watch out for is whether the incoming leaders look to increase or decrease the level of global integration.",{"type":579,"attrs":853,"content":854},{"textAlign":49},[855],{"text":856,"type":584},"“Greater integration could lead to lower prices as players take ownership over those areas in the supply chain for which they have the greatest comparative advantage and this would likely accelerate the green transition,” Bille said.","Benchmark analysis shows that notably 65% of next year’s refined nickel supply, a quarter of natural graphite supply and over 70% of ex-China battery supply is forecast to come from countries with elections in 2024–the biggest year in the history of elections. The incumbent political parties of both the US and the European Union (EU) […]",[859],{"slug":567,"name":568,"content":860},{"job_title":570,"image":861,"bio":573,"linkedin":574},{"filename":572},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"16a19efa-0d9c-4232-8478-434e617df8c0\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[865,868],{"slug":866,"name":867},"geopolitics","Geopolitics",{"slug":869,"name":870},"sustainability","Sustainability","private",{"id":49,"alt":671,"name":873,"focus":873,"title":671,"source":873,"filename":672,"copyright":873,"fieldtype":874,"meta_data":875,"is_external_url":51},"","asset",{"alt":671,"title":671,"source":873,"copyright":873},{"id":49,"alt":873,"name":873,"focus":873,"title":873,"source":873,"filename":877,"copyright":873,"fieldtype":874,"meta_data":878,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/05de2718a7/bm-election.jpg",{"alt":873,"title":873,"source":873,"copyright":873},"Mar 27, 2024","27th March 2024",[],[],1783529649263]