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EV ambitions face tests under new leadership","indonesias-ev-ambitions-face-tests-under-new-leadership","article/indonesias-ev-ambitions-face-tests-under-new-leadership",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":701,"featured":51,"reporter":702,"_editable":706,"component":707,"seo_title":553,"categories":708,"visibility":720,"author_company":49,"featured_image":721,"seo_description":701,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":725,"formattedArticleDate":726},"120550af-014c-4f31-9b48-d4a4377644bf","2024-11-05 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"indonesia","Indonesia",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,598,603,610,615,630,635,644,649,654,659,664,669,674,679,684,689,696],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"The inauguration of Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto in late October marked a potentially defining moment in its bid to establish an electric vehicle (EV) production hub. ","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"Outgoing president Joko Widodo has overseen a dramatic transformation of the Indonesian economy since coming to power in 2014. The ‘downstreaming’ of the country’s vast nickel resources – underpinned by the influx of Chinese capital towards the development of a sprawling nickel processing industry – has created a large industrial base, boosted exports, and positioned Indonesia as a key energy transition partner.",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"However, as Prabowo takes the reins, Indonesia finds itself at a critical juncture for the future of its downstreaming ambitions. The Widodo government has sought to attract foreign investment to move up the battery value chain and establish a fully-fledged EV ecosystem, but this has proven slow to materialise.",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":582},"“Joko Widodo’s fundamental priority has been economic development and attracting overseas investment,” said Zach Parsons, battery metals analyst at Benchmark. ",{"type":577,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601],{"text":602,"type":582},"“But Prabowo does not share this central focus and many are concerned about the potential return to a Suharto-style political structure, and what that could mean for investment.”",{"type":604,"attrs":605,"content":607},"heading",{"level":606,"textAlign":49},4,[608],{"text":609,"type":582},"Can Indonesia develop an EV ecosystem?",{"type":577,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":582},"The Widodo government set an ambitious target to rank amongst the top three producers of lithium ion batteries worldwide by 2027 and achieve 140 gigawatt hours (GWh) of battery capacity by 2030, offering incentives such as tax breaks to attract foreign investment.",{"type":577,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618,620,628],{"text":619,"type":582},"Despite some progress, ",{"text":621,"type":582,"marks":622},"Benchmark projects",[623],{"type":624,"attrs":625},"link",{"href":626,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":627},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-ion-batteries/capacity-database/gigafactory","url",{"text":629,"type":582}," Indonesia’s cell capacity to fall some way short of the government’s 2030 target, reaching just 20 GWh by the end of the decade. ",{"type":577,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":582},"In fact, the below graph demonstrates that Indonesia has failed to translate its nickel dominance into investment at the midstream and downstream stages of the battery value chain.",{"type":577,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"type":639,"attrs":640},"image",{"id":49,"alt":641,"src":642,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":643},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/c71205c4af/bm-unnamed.png",{},{"type":577,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":582},"To address the imbalance, President Prabowo has vowed to continue the downstreaming policy of the previous administration to reduce dependence on mineral exports and spur the development of a domestic manufacturing sector.",{"type":577,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[652],{"text":653,"type":582},"This value-add process, however, could pit Indonesia in direct competition with its largest trade partner and source of foreign investment: China. ",{"type":577,"attrs":655,"content":656},{"textAlign":49},[657],{"text":658,"type":582},"“It will be challenging for Indonesia to develop a complete battery supply chain, considering how competitive China is,” said Bryan Bille, principal policy analyst at Benchmark. “Even if the Indonesian government wants to diversify investments and move up to the value chain, China will likely remain an important partner both in terms of capital and technological expertise.”",{"type":577,"attrs":660,"content":661},{"textAlign":49},[662],{"text":663,"type":582},"Politics, too, is also at play. Luhut Panjaitan, the de-facto mastermind behind the downstreaming policy and key point of contact for foreign investors, is expected to transition to a less prominent role in the new government, which is creating concerns that there may be a lack of coordination for the downstreaming strategy. ",{"type":577,"attrs":665,"content":666},{"textAlign":49},[667],{"text":668,"type":582},"“The country’s diversification strategy may also be complicated by Prabowo Subianto’s well-documented anti-democratic tendencies and links to Indonesia’s former authoritarian leader Suharto,” Bille added.",{"type":604,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"level":606,"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":582},"Indonesia and the Inflation Reduction Act",{"type":577,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677],{"text":678,"type":582},"To facilitate its downstreaming ambitions, as well as reduce reliance on a single trade partner and affirm Indonesia’s position as a non-aligned power, officials have touted the importance of a Critical Mineral Agreement (CMA) with the US in order to gain access to Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits.",{"type":577,"attrs":680,"content":681},{"textAlign":49},[682],{"text":683,"type":582},"However, current prospects for such an agreement appear remote: US policymakers’ have expressed concerns’ over China’s hegemonic position in Indonesia’s nickel industry, while in September the US Department of Labor reported that forced labour was being used in the Indonesian nickel industry.",{"type":577,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"textAlign":49},[687],{"text":688,"type":582},"Indonesian nickel could still qualify for tax credits without a CMA in place, contingent that nickel was exported to a free trade agreement (FTA) economy for further processing, such as South Korea and Japan. ",{"type":577,"attrs":690,"content":691},{"textAlign":49},[692],{"type":639,"attrs":693},{"id":49,"alt":641,"src":694,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":695},"https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcEGaNORrN_BzP1RNsC-ZHPySlk7JNl2HBePOOfPSzQFM-5r-mIAj0Q6-vUyNp4turXyNDacsr9aC0teitQNUo53b8HTOpgj9HzCmfnsflhKtvfS7DtuqzlVHnyQJkOwch8FflxjnWmGD5x82UqSXlfZXTL?key=-9bd8FSVNnRG2JhuN409VbT3",{},{"type":577,"attrs":697,"content":698},{"textAlign":49},[699],{"text":700,"type":582},"The IRA’s foreign entity of concern (FEOC) restrictions would make this challenging, however, given that section 30D dictates that you need to assess the full supply chain for FEOC involvement when doing the due diligence to qualify for the credits.","The inauguration of Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto in late October marked a potentially defining moment in its bid to establish an electric vehicle (EV) production hub. Outgoing president Joko Widodo has overseen a dramatic transformation of the Indonesian economy since coming to power in 2014. The ‘downstreaming’ of the country’s vast nickel resources – […]",[703],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":704},{"job_title":568,"image":705,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"120550af-014c-4f31-9b48-d4a4377644bf\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[709,712,715,718],{"slug":710,"name":711},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":713,"name":714},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":716,"name":717},"geopolitics","Geopolitics",{"slug":719,"name":150},"nickel","private",{"id":49,"alt":641,"name":641,"focus":641,"title":641,"source":641,"filename":722,"copyright":641,"fieldtype":723,"meta_data":724,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/fdb8e027a9/bm-prabowo-subianto-1327072db135.jpg","asset",{"alt":641,"title":641,"source":641,"copyright":641},"Nov 05, 2024","5th November 2024",[],[],1792773894711]