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in 2020: Prices, coronavirus and Tesla","lithium-in-2020-prices-coronavirus-and-tesla","article/lithium-in-2020-prices-coronavirus-and-tesla",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":566,"content":576,"excerpt":740,"featured":50,"reporter":741,"_editable":745,"component":746,"seo_title":553,"categories":747,"visibility":753,"author_company":49,"featured_image":754,"seo_description":740,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":757,"formattedArticleDate":758},"35f2d46d-0dcd-4462-aec1-5a00046be91e","2020-10-23 00:00",[560,563],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",{"slug":564,"name":565},"covid","COVID",[567],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":570},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":571,"image":572,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":573},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":577,"content":578},"doc",[579,587,593,608,613,618,623,628,633,638,651,656,665,670,675,688,693,699,707,712,717,722,727,732,737],{"type":580,"attrs":581,"content":583},"heading",{"level":582,"textAlign":49},4,[584],{"text":585,"type":586},"Coronavirus Response: Battery demand delayed, but not derailed","text",{"type":588,"attrs":589,"content":590},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":586},"The unexpected outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has affected markets globally and lithium is no exception. However, while the trajectory of battery demand in the near-term has been impacted by the fallout from the outbreak, in the medium and long-term the demand prospects for lithium continue to show growth.",{"type":588,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596,598,606],{"text":597,"type":586},"China’s electric vehicle recovery is already underway — ",{"text":599,"type":586,"marks":600},"with sales figures in July, August, and September all showing year-on-year growth for the first time since 2019",[601],{"type":602,"attrs":603},"link",{"href":604,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":605},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-doubles-down-on-electric-vehicle-ambitions","url",{"text":607,"type":586}," — and Europe outperformed Q2 and Q3 expectations.",{"type":588,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":586},"As a consequence of the outbreak, Benchmark expects 2020 lithium demand to be lower than that of 2019, but we expect to see demand ramp up in the last months of the year in preparation for 2021.",{"type":580,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"level":582,"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":586},"Price pressures persist",{"type":588,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":586},"Coming into 2020 lithium was already in a low-price environment which had persisted since the price falls of 2018 and 2019.",{"type":588,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":586},"The market was set to move into a balance in H2 2020, but with the negative impacts of coronavirus, combined with significant backlogs of spodumene inventories, this will be delayed until 2021.",{"type":588,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"textAlign":49},[631],{"text":632,"type":586},"As such, we expect the low price environment to continue and we will see a further convergence in pricing towards Chinese levels in the next 12 months.",{"type":588,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"textAlign":49},[636],{"text":637,"type":586},"This low-price environment has put pressures on a new generation of producers that have come online, tasked to meet market growth, and there have already been casualties among Australia’s spodumene producers.",{"type":588,"attrs":639,"content":640},{"textAlign":49},[641,643,649],{"text":642,"type":586},"Rising spodumene prices incentivised a number of new producers to come online in 2017 and 2018, but since then spodumene prices have more than halved from their $915/tonne (6% Li2O, FOB Australia) peak in June 2018 to an average of $375/tonne in September 2020 as assessed by the ",{"text":644,"type":586,"marks":645},"Benchmark Minerals Lithium Price Assessment",[646],{"type":602,"attrs":647},{"href":648,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":605},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/#lithium",{"text":650,"type":586},".",{"type":588,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":586},"This low-price environment is insufficient to incentivise new production and this will likely translate into increased price volatility in the medium-term.",{"type":588,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"type":660,"attrs":661},"image",{"id":49,"alt":662,"src":663,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":664},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/b9369399aa/bm-benchmark-li-prices.png",{},{"type":588,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":586},"Source:Benchmark Lithium Price Assessment",{"type":580,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"level":582,"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":586},"Cutbacks today, bottlenecks tomorrow",{"type":588,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678,680,686],{"text":679,"type":586},"Benchmark is forecasting that lithium demand will grow 3.5x between 2019 and 2025 (Source: Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast), but",{"text":681,"type":586,"marks":682}," despite these strong fundamentals, cutbacks from majors and the slowdown in expansion plans have continued",[683],{"type":602,"attrs":684},{"href":685,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":605},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/casualties-mount-in-lithiums-spodumene-bear-market",{"text":687,"type":586},". With persistent low prices in the lithium market as outlined above, bringing new supply online continues to be an issue in 2020.",{"type":588,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":586},"While Benchmark expects the lithium market to remain in a surplus moving into 2021, we forecast a structural deficit from 2022 onwards as insufficient supply is due to come online to meet the battery industry’s growing needs.",{"type":580,"attrs":694,"content":696},{"level":695,"textAlign":49},5,[697],{"text":698,"type":586},"Lithium’s looming supply shortage",{"type":588,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":49},[702],{"type":660,"attrs":703},{"id":49,"alt":704,"src":705,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":706},"Lithium's looming supply shortage","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/cbfe2f01fa/bm-benchmark-li-supply-demand.png",{},{"type":588,"attrs":708,"content":709},{"textAlign":49},[710],{"text":711,"type":586},"Source: Benchmark Lithium Forecast",{"type":580,"attrs":713,"content":714},{"level":582,"textAlign":49},[715],{"text":716,"type":586},"Tesla’s move upstream sets a new OEM precedent",{"type":588,"attrs":718,"content":719},{"textAlign":49},[720],{"text":721,"type":586},"Tesla’s plans to build a lithium hydroxide chemical plant in Texas marks the first move by an automotive company into lithium chemical production.",{"type":588,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725],{"text":726,"type":586},"Controlling the lithium conversion to battery grade chemicals from the raw material — spodumene concentrate — will enable Tesla to reduce its overall costs but also control the quality of its lithium hydroxide output more closely.",{"type":588,"attrs":728,"content":729},{"textAlign":49},[730],{"text":731,"type":586},"With other OEMs already looking upstream to battery cell production —such as Volkswagen with its joint venture with Northvolt and investment in Chinese cell producer Gotion — we would expect other auto manufacturers to look further upstream to take control of advanced materials.",{"type":588,"attrs":733,"content":734},{"textAlign":49},[735],{"text":736,"type":586},"Tesla has set this new precedent and if successful other automakers will in time likely follow.",{"type":588,"attrs":738,"content":739},{"textAlign":49},[],"Coronavirus Response: Battery demand delayed, but not derailed The unexpected outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has affected markets globally and lithium is no exception. However, while the trajectory of battery demand in the near-term has been impacted by the fallout from the outbreak, in the medium and long-term the demand prospects for lithium continue to […]",[742],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":743},{"job_title":571,"image":744,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},{"filename":573},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"35f2d46d-0dcd-4462-aec1-5a00046be91e\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[748,751],{"slug":749,"name":750},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":752,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":49,"alt":662,"name":662,"focus":662,"title":662,"source":662,"filename":663,"copyright":662,"fieldtype":755,"meta_data":756,"is_external_url":51},"asset",{"alt":662,"title":662,"source":662,"copyright":662},"Oct 23, 2020","23rd October 2020",[],[],1792773938602]