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here to stay, say battery majors, as sub $150/kWh target approaches","lithium-ion-here-to-stay-say-battery-majors-as-sub-150kwh-target-approaches","article/lithium-ion-here-to-stay-say-battery-majors-as-sub-150kwh-target-approaches",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":584,"featured":50,"reporter":777,"_editable":781,"component":782,"seo_title":553,"categories":783,"visibility":792,"author_company":49,"featured_image":793,"seo_description":584,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":798,"formattedArticleDate":799},"b6a861bb-431e-4fe2-a20b-dc50c230092b","2016-07-21 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,603,608,613,618,623,630,635,638,643,648,653,658,663,668,673,678,683,688,693,698,703,708,713,718,723,728,731,736,739,744,749,754,759,764,769,774],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"Andrew Miller / @amiller_bmi ","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"The great and the good of the battery industry descended upon Fort Lauderdale, Florida in late March, for the 33rd Annual International Battery Seminar.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"A mainstay in the industry calendar for long-time battery experts, the event touched upon all of the leading topics in the burgeoning sector. From cell format to cathode chemistry, advanced materials to recycling, the seminar highlighted the complexity and range of debate surrounding several issues as producers strive towards cost, power and energy density milestones.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"But almost without fail, attendees were in agreement on one point – lithium-ion is here to stay.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"While there are improvements to be made in terms of anode and cathode materials, production efficiencies and cost, to mention just a few areas, lithium-ion is succeeding where almost every other battery technologies have failed – mass-scale adoption.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":579},"Lithium-ion has been the main beneficiary of growth in demand for rechargeable batteries, soaring to a capacity of over 60GWh in 2020 from around 10GWh in 2005, while competing technology predecessors such as NiMh have stagnated at less than 5GWh capacity.",{"type":574,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":579},"And this is before the market enters its real period of growth.",{"type":574,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":579},"Benchmark forecasts expect lithium-ion capacities to over double by as early as 2020, with mass scale expansions in production facilities and strong demand growth from the electric vehicle market.",{"type":574,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":579},"Both these developments, side by side, will address the final obstacle in attaining mass-market adoption – cost.",{"type":624,"attrs":625,"content":627},"heading",{"level":626,"textAlign":49},3,[628],{"text":629,"type":579}," Holy grail",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"Central to the concept of widespread adoption of lithium-ion cells in the transportation sector has been the idea of a ‘holy grail’ for battery costs – what many believed to be $250/kWh.",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":639,"content":640},{"textAlign":49},[641],{"text":642,"type":579},"Although average industry costs are still slightly above this level there is now little doubt from the battery majors that this target can not only be achieved, but surpassed substantially by as early as 2020.",{"type":574,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"textAlign":49},[646],{"text":647,"type":579},"Denise Gray, CEO & President of LG Chem Power noted that the company have been working with major auto manufacturers to achieve cost savings through improvements in active materials and optimisation of both electrodes and other components.",{"type":574,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651],{"text":652,"type":579},"These developments alongside the economies of scale the company intends to achieve through facility expansions in South Korea, China and the US (which will allow them to supply over 300,000 EV batteries) have seen the company rally around the cost target of $100/kWh by 2020.",{"type":574,"attrs":654,"content":655},{"textAlign":49},[656],{"text":657,"type":579},"And while scale is central to the plans of all battery majors over the coming years, it is widely agreed that the marginal improvements in technology are what will drive cost savings post-2025.",{"type":624,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"level":626,"textAlign":49},[661],{"text":662,"type":579}," Tweaking the tech",{"type":574,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"textAlign":49},[666],{"text":667,"type":579},"Forecasts from all battery and auto majors centre around lithium-ion being the technology of choice until at least 2030.",{"type":574,"attrs":669,"content":670},{"textAlign":49},[671],{"text":672,"type":579},"As Michael Fetcenko, Managing Director of BASF Battery Materials North America, outlined in his presentation on battery materials for e-mobility, “What’s next? Better and better lithium-ion (batteries), we believe”.",{"type":574,"attrs":674,"content":675},{"textAlign":49},[676],{"text":677,"type":579},"Central to these improvements will be further standardisation across cathode chemistries.",{"type":574,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"textAlign":49},[681],{"text":682,"type":579},"Today, there are several different cathode chemistries being explored across the industry, however there are four such chemistries which are stealing the march on alternatives.",{"type":574,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":579},"While the lithium-cobalt-oxide (LCO) chemistry has been, and will remain, a mainstay in the industry since its adoption in portable technologies in the 1990s, speakers agreed the beneficiaries of growth in the transportation sector would be nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP).",{"type":574,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":579},"Benchmark research suggests these cathode chemistries accounted for 56% of lithium-ion capacity in 2015, with LCO still representing 33% of the market.",{"type":574,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":579},"As transportation overtakes consumer electronics as the leading application for lithium-ion batteries, however, supply of these cathodes will experience exponential growth.",{"type":574,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":579},"By as early as 2020, NMC could be employed in over 50 GWh of lithiumion technologies for transportation alone – twenty times its levels today.",{"type":574,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":579},"In addition, Tesla’s use of an NCA cathode in its vehicles at the Gigafactory in Nevada, US, and China’s continued push towards LFP for use in e-buses, will see substantial growth in these markets as well.",{"type":574,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":579},"And this is before the potential emergence of an even larger application in the form of utility storage devices.",{"type":574,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716],{"text":717,"type":579},"But while the battery technology was largely agreed upon, developments upstream were less clear among delegates. No more so than when questions were raised around the raw material required to create these technologies.",{"type":624,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"level":626,"textAlign":49},[721],{"text":722,"type":579}," Upstream impact",{"type":574,"attrs":724,"content":725},{"textAlign":49},[726],{"text":727,"type":579},"A thorn in the side of almost all battery companies as they have laid the foundations for the growth expected over the coming 5 years has been the availability of raw material.",{"type":574,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"textAlign":49},[734],{"text":735,"type":579},"Again this was the case for battery majors at the International Battery Seminar, who were persistently questioned over the role of cobalt following the release of an Amnesty International report uncovering human rights abuses in its production in the DRC.",{"type":574,"attrs":737,"content":738},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":740,"content":741},{"textAlign":49},[742],{"text":743,"type":579},"While discussions about how to engineer cobalt out of a battery were plentiful, few answers were offered as to how this would be possible without a shift away from the nickel containing chemistries which companies have invested in for the best part of a decade.",{"type":574,"attrs":745,"content":746},{"textAlign":49},[747],{"text":748,"type":579},"The availability and sustainable supply of cobalt alongside other battery mainstays of lithium and graphite pose several problems to producers.",{"type":574,"attrs":750,"content":751},{"textAlign":49},[752],{"text":753,"type":579},"Structurally the markets are underprepared for the significant developments being touted downstream and access to the advanced materials which are engineered from these raw materials could create a potential bottleneck for developments.",{"type":574,"attrs":755,"content":756},{"textAlign":49},[757],{"text":758,"type":579},"So while downstream producers cemented their certainty over the future direction of the battery market, it will likely fall to companies further upstream to nurture this market and avoid anything which could derail the lithium-ion revolution.",{"type":574,"attrs":760,"content":761},{"textAlign":49},[762],{"text":763,"type":579},"While the formulas and chemistries may vary, it appears evident that demand for graphite, lithium and cobalt will all increase.",{"type":574,"attrs":765,"content":766},{"textAlign":49},[767],{"text":768,"type":579},"As Kurt Kelty, Tesla’s Gigafactory procurement team lead noted, the lithium ion dollars have already been invested.",{"type":574,"attrs":770,"content":771},{"textAlign":49},[772],{"text":773,"type":579},"“We’re banking on lithium-ion [and] we continue to make progress on that” he concluded.",{"type":574,"attrs":775,"content":776},{"textAlign":49},[],[778],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":779},{"job_title":565,"image":780,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"b6a861bb-431e-4fe2-a20b-dc50c230092b\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[784,787,790],{"slug":785,"name":786},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":788,"name":789},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":791,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":49,"alt":794,"name":794,"focus":794,"title":794,"source":794,"filename":795,"copyright":794,"fieldtype":796,"meta_data":797,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/3ec8ac260d/bm-batteries1.jpeg","asset",{"alt":794,"title":794,"source":794,"copyright":794},"Jul 21, 2016","21st July 2016",[],[],1792773947528]