[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":685},["ShallowReactive",2],{"ticker-data":3,"story-article/lithium-market-faces-upstream-strain-despite-chemical-oversupply":550},[4,52,82,112,149,187,231,263,298,336,378,418,460,490,520],{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":8,"today":9,"last":10,"percentageChange":11,"yearToDate":12,"yearOnYear":13,"oneYearIndexTrend":14,"url":48,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-09-16","2wk","Updated every 2 weeks","Lithium",354.99,385.07,-7.81,51.88,112.02,[15,16,18,21,24,27,30,33,36,39,42,45],{"date":5,"value":9},{"date":17,"value":10},"2026-09-02",{"date":19,"value":20},"2026-08-19",372.67,{"date":22,"value":23},"2026-08-05",367.54,{"date":25,"value":26},"2026-07-22",388.26,{"date":28,"value":29},"2026-07-08",399.4,{"date":31,"value":32},"2026-06-24",410.62,{"date":34,"value":35},"2026-06-10",427.77,{"date":37,"value":38},"2026-05-27",449.85,{"date":40,"value":41},"2026-05-13",451.12,{"date":43,"value":44},"2026-04-29",404.38,{"date":46,"value":47},"2026-04-15",354.35,"/lithium/prices",null,false,true,{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":53,"today":54,"last":55,"percentageChange":56,"yearToDate":57,"yearOnYear":58,"oneYearIndexTrend":59,"url":48,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"Lithium Carbonate",300.39,306.07,-1.86,18.27,69.99,[60,61,62,64,66,68,70,72,74,76,78,80],{"date":5,"value":54},{"date":17,"value":55},{"date":19,"value":63},297.22,{"date":22,"value":65},296.63,{"date":25,"value":67},309.38,{"date":28,"value":69},317.2,{"date":31,"value":71},330.54,{"date":34,"value":73},346.5,{"date":37,"value":75},358.35,{"date":40,"value":77},350.28,{"date":43,"value":79},328.09,{"date":46,"value":81},381.25,{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":83,"today":84,"last":85,"percentageChange":86,"yearToDate":87,"yearOnYear":88,"oneYearIndexTrend":89,"url":48,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"Lithium Hydroxide",339.85,352.45,-3.57,67.22,122.85,[90,91,92,94,96,98,100,102,104,106,108,110],{"date":5,"value":84},{"date":17,"value":85},{"date":19,"value":93},341.12,{"date":22,"value":95},337.87,{"date":25,"value":97},354.36,{"date":28,"value":99},364.06,{"date":31,"value":101},376.67,{"date":34,"value":103},393.29,{"date":37,"value":105},411.01,{"date":40,"value":107},408.51,{"date":43,"value":109},372.51,{"date":46,"value":111},316.95,{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":113,"updateFrequencyText":114,"label":115,"today":116,"last":117,"percentageChange":118,"yearToDate":119,"yearOnYear":120,"oneYearIndexTrend":121,"url":148,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"1wk","Updated every week","Cobalt",178.66,189.92,-5.93,-24.05,25.17,[122,123,124,127,129,132,133,136,138,141,143,146],{"date":5,"value":116},{"date":17,"value":117},{"date":125,"value":126},"2026-08-26",192.6,{"date":19,"value":128},199.83,{"date":130,"value":131},"2026-08-12",217.25,{"date":22,"value":131},{"date":134,"value":135},"2026-07-29",221.25,{"date":25,"value":137},224.44,{"date":139,"value":140},"2026-07-15",223.01,{"date":28,"value":142},223.72,{"date":144,"value":145},"2026-07-01",218.73,{"date":31,"value":147},229.84,"/cobalt/prices",{"publishedDate":150,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":151,"today":152,"last":153,"percentageChange":154,"yearToDate":155,"yearOnYear":156,"oneYearIndexTrend":157,"url":186,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-09-09","Nickel",119.13,119.61,-0.4,-1.33,12.77,[158,159,160,162,164,166,168,171,174,177,180,183],{"date":150,"value":152},{"date":125,"value":153},{"date":130,"value":161},121.04,{"date":134,"value":163},121.19,{"date":139,"value":165},122.66,{"date":144,"value":167},125.61,{"date":169,"value":170},"2026-06-17",131.5,{"date":172,"value":173},"2026-06-03",134.65,{"date":175,"value":176},"2026-05-20",135.83,{"date":178,"value":179},"2026-05-06",133.76,{"date":181,"value":182},"2026-04-22",125.43,{"date":184,"value":185},"2026-04-08",124.51,"/nickel/prices",{"publishedDate":188,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":191,"today":192,"last":193,"percentageChange":194,"yearToDate":195,"yearOnYear":196,"oneYearIndexTrend":197,"url":230,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-08-28","1mo","Updated every month","Natural Graphite",80.18,80.66,-0.6,-1.72,-1.7,[198,199,201,204,207,210,213,216,219,222,225,227],{"date":188,"value":192},{"date":200,"value":193},"2026-07-31",{"date":202,"value":203},"2026-06-30",82.87,{"date":205,"value":206},"2026-05-29",82.99,{"date":208,"value":209},"2026-04-30",82.93,{"date":211,"value":212},"2026-03-31",82.39,{"date":214,"value":215},"2026-02-27",81.92,{"date":217,"value":218},"2026-01-30",81.69,{"date":220,"value":221},"2025-12-31",81.58,{"date":223,"value":224},"2025-11-28",81.35,{"date":226,"value":224},"2025-10-31",{"date":228,"value":229},"2025-09-30",81.74,"/natural-graphite/prices",{"publishedDate":200,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":232,"today":233,"last":234,"percentageChange":235,"yearToDate":236,"yearOnYear":237,"oneYearIndexTrend":238,"url":262,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"Anode Coke",81.86,80.54,1.63,9.96,16.35,[239,240,241,242,244,246,248,250,252,254,256,259],{"date":200,"value":233},{"date":202,"value":234},{"date":205,"value":234},{"date":208,"value":243},84.01,{"date":211,"value":245},79.79,{"date":214,"value":247},75.72,{"date":217,"value":249},74.61,{"date":220,"value":251},74.44,{"date":226,"value":253},72.75,{"date":228,"value":255},71.92,{"date":257,"value":258},"2025-08-29",71.46,{"date":260,"value":261},"2025-07-31",70.35,"/synthetic-graphite/prices",{"publishedDate":264,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":265,"today":266,"last":266,"percentageChange":267,"yearToDate":268,"yearOnYear":269,"oneYearIndexTrend":270,"url":297,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-09-15","Anode",80.24,0,1.53,2.92,[271,272,274,275,277,280,282,285,287,289,291,294],{"date":264,"value":266},{"date":273,"value":266},"2026-08-17",{"date":139,"value":266},{"date":276,"value":266},"2026-06-15",{"date":278,"value":279},"2026-05-15",79.16,{"date":46,"value":281},81.98,{"date":283,"value":284},"2026-03-16",79.03,{"date":286,"value":284},"2026-02-16",{"date":288,"value":284},"2026-01-15",{"date":290,"value":284},"2025-12-15",{"date":292,"value":293},"2025-11-17",77.79,{"date":295,"value":296},"2025-10-15",77.96,"/anode/prices",{"publishedDate":299,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":300,"today":301,"last":302,"percentageChange":303,"yearToDate":304,"yearOnYear":305,"oneYearIndexTrend":306,"url":335,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-08-01","Cathode",73.32,77.21,-5.04,14.41,55.07,[307,308,309,312,315,318,321,324,326,328,330,332],{"date":299,"value":301},{"date":144,"value":302},{"date":310,"value":311},"2026-06-01",80.32,{"date":313,"value":314},"2026-05-01",81.71,{"date":316,"value":317},"2026-04-01",77.27,{"date":319,"value":320},"2026-03-01",81.99,{"date":322,"value":323},"2026-02-01",80.5,{"date":288,"value":325},72.79,{"date":290,"value":327},64.08,{"date":292,"value":329},62.01,{"date":295,"value":331},53.51,{"date":333,"value":334},"2025-09-15",49.5,"/cathode/prices",{"publishedDate":337,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":338,"today":339,"last":340,"percentageChange":341,"yearToDate":342,"yearOnYear":343,"oneYearIndexTrend":344,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2025-03-31","Lithium ion Batteries",74.53,71.3,4.53,-1.6,-20.88,[345,346,348,351,354,357,360,363,366,368,371,374],{"date":337,"value":339},{"date":347,"value":340},"2025-02-28",{"date":349,"value":350},"2025-01-31",71.45,{"date":352,"value":353},"2024-12-31",75.74,{"date":355,"value":356},"2024-11-29",76.98,{"date":358,"value":359},"2024-10-31",77.34,{"date":361,"value":362},"2024-09-30",77.43,{"date":364,"value":365},"2024-08-30",80.56,{"date":367,"value":206},"2024-07-31",{"date":369,"value":370},"2024-06-28",87.2,{"date":372,"value":373},"2024-05-31",90.7,{"date":375,"value":376},"2024-04-30",93.2,"/battery-gigafactory/prices",{"publishedDate":379,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":380,"today":381,"last":382,"percentageChange":383,"yearToDate":384,"yearOnYear":385,"oneYearIndexTrend":386,"url":417,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-09-10","Black Mass",42.03,43.88,-4.2,-2.58,38.13,[387,388,390,393,396,399,402,405,408,410,412,414],{"date":379,"value":381},{"date":389,"value":382},"2026-08-27",{"date":391,"value":392},"2026-08-13",42.33,{"date":394,"value":395},"2026-07-30",43.42,{"date":397,"value":398},"2026-07-16",46.74,{"date":400,"value":401},"2026-07-02",46.01,{"date":403,"value":404},"2026-06-18",49.57,{"date":406,"value":407},"2026-02-12",47.34,{"date":409,"value":404},"2026-01-29",{"date":288,"value":411},43.15,{"date":220,"value":413},47.05,{"date":415,"value":416},"2025-12-18",41.51,"/recycling/black-mass-prices",{"publishedDate":419,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":420,"today":421,"last":422,"percentageChange":423,"yearToDate":424,"yearOnYear":425,"oneYearIndexTrend":426,"url":459,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-09-03","Rare Earths",170.83,169.63,0.71,19.72,22.18,[427,428,430,433,436,439,442,445,448,451,453,456],{"date":419,"value":421},{"date":429,"value":422},"2026-08-20",{"date":431,"value":432},"2026-08-06",172.28,{"date":434,"value":435},"2026-07-23",173.94,{"date":437,"value":438},"2026-07-09",171.69,{"date":440,"value":441},"2026-06-25",168.55,{"date":443,"value":444},"2026-06-11",165,{"date":446,"value":447},"2026-05-28",163.89,{"date":449,"value":450},"2026-05-14",172.63,{"date":208,"value":452},175.6,{"date":454,"value":455},"2026-04-16",172.01,{"date":457,"value":458},"2026-04-02",165.47,"/rare-earths/prices",{"publishedDate":188,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":461,"today":462,"last":463,"percentageChange":464,"yearToDate":465,"yearOnYear":466,"oneYearIndexTrend":467,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"NCM Mid-Nickel",152.7,162.48,-6.02,17.38,53.11,[468,469,470,472,474,476,478,480,482,484,486,488],{"date":188,"value":462},{"date":200,"value":463},{"date":202,"value":471},171.08,{"date":205,"value":473},173.65,{"date":208,"value":475},164.53,{"date":211,"value":477},157.28,{"date":214,"value":479},151.44,{"date":217,"value":481},144.5,{"date":220,"value":483},130.09,{"date":223,"value":485},124.6,{"date":226,"value":487},122.35,{"date":228,"value":489},103.5,{"publishedDate":188,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":491,"today":492,"last":493,"percentageChange":494,"yearToDate":495,"yearOnYear":496,"oneYearIndexTrend":497,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"NCM High-Nickel",144.45,149.67,-3.49,26.69,49.06,[498,499,500,502,504,506,508,510,512,514,516,518],{"date":188,"value":492},{"date":200,"value":493},{"date":202,"value":501},157.37,{"date":205,"value":503},160,{"date":208,"value":505},149.53,{"date":211,"value":507},141.97,{"date":214,"value":509},136.99,{"date":217,"value":511},129.81,{"date":220,"value":513},114.02,{"date":223,"value":515},109.17,{"date":226,"value":517},109.02,{"date":228,"value":519},99.44,{"publishedDate":188,"updateFrequency":189,"updateFrequencyText":190,"label":521,"today":522,"last":523,"percentageChange":524,"yearToDate":525,"yearOnYear":526,"oneYearIndexTrend":527,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"LFP",229.17,218.34,4.96,49.35,83.44,[528,529,530,532,534,536,538,540,542,544,546,548],{"date":188,"value":522},{"date":200,"value":523},{"date":202,"value":531},239.1,{"date":205,"value":533},258.32,{"date":208,"value":535},239.37,{"date":211,"value":537},213.01,{"date":214,"value":539},204.49,{"date":217,"value":541},218.06,{"date":220,"value":543},153.45,{"date":223,"value":545},134.02,{"date":226,"value":547},118.22,{"date":228,"value":549},111.93,{"id":551,"uuid":552,"name":553,"slug":554,"full_slug":555,"content":556,"relatedArticles":683,"relatedVideos":684},112467509623773,"dc5d76f8-0f1e-4333-a82b-3d3652aeb916","Lithium market faces upstream strain, despite chemical oversupply","lithium-market-faces-upstream-strain-despite-chemical-oversupply","article/lithium-market-faces-upstream-strain-despite-chemical-oversupply",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":566,"content":576,"excerpt":665,"featured":51,"reporter":666,"_editable":670,"component":671,"seo_title":553,"categories":672,"visibility":676,"author_company":49,"featured_image":677,"seo_description":665,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":681,"formattedArticleDate":682},"e00f4df0-bd33-4f65-a716-dd7e82932e5c","2025-07-03 00:00",[560,563],{"slug":561,"name":562},"australia","Australia",{"slug":564,"name":565},"spodumene","Spodumene",[567],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":570},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":571,"image":572,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":573},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":577,"content":578},"doc",[579,596,601,606,611,616,623,628,633,638,650,655,660],{"type":580,"attrs":581,"content":582},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[583,586,594],{"text":584,"type":585},"The lithium supply chain is experiencing structural dislocations, as concentrate (spodumene and mica) supply faces a shortfall of 60kt LCE this year, despite a 70kt LCE surplus in the broader chemical market, according to the latest edition of the ","text",{"text":587,"type":585,"marks":588},"Benchmark Lithium Forecast",[589],{"type":590,"attrs":591},"link",{"href":592,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":593},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts","url",{"text":595,"type":585},". ",{"type":580,"attrs":597,"content":598},{"textAlign":49},[599],{"text":600,"type":585},"Concentrate demand is projected to grow 34% year-on-year, owing to the expansion of chemical conversion capacity—particularly in China. It is important to note that Benchmark calculates concentrate demand based on capacity multiplied by optimal utilisation rates, a standard approach in metal market analysis.",{"type":580,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604],{"text":605,"type":585},"However, rising demand has not prevented a sharp decline in spodumene prices, as chemical oversupply continues to exert downward pressure on prices further upstream. Oversupply in the chemical market is being underpinned by increased output from South American brine operations and gains from recycling.",{"type":580,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":585},"Benchmark assessed spodumene concentrate prices (FOB Australia) to fall from $826/tonne to $590/tonne over the course of Q2. However, the spodumene-to-carbonate price ratio averaged 8.5% through H1 2025, ranging from 10% to 7.5% over the second quarter. This is broadly in line with 2024’s average of 7.5% and reflects ongoing tightness in feedstock supply despite weaker market sentiment.",{"type":580,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":585},"This disconnect is creating pressure throughout the supply chain, squeezing converter margins, lowering utilisation rates, and causing several mines in Africa and Australia to operate at a loss.",{"type":617,"attrs":618,"content":620},"heading",{"level":619,"textAlign":49},4,[621],{"text":622,"type":585},"Could more mines go offline?",{"type":580,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":585},"Despite tightness in the concentrate market, most miners are operating at a loss in the current price environment. This raises the risk of mine curtailments or project delays in the second half of 2025.",{"type":580,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"textAlign":49},[631],{"text":632,"type":585},"At current price levels (~$600/tonne), Benchmark estimates nearly 60% of Australian production to be loss-making on an all-in sustaining costs (AISC) basis. ",{"type":580,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"textAlign":49},[636],{"text":637,"type":585},"Benchmark’s scenario analysis suggests the loss of 1–2 mines (~50kt LCE in 2025) could tighten the chemical market in 2025, lifting prices sharply (as seen each time a mine closes, regardless of the balance). In this scenario, the market could fall into a deficit by 2026. ",{"type":639,"attrs":640},"blok",{"id":641,"body":642},"92c699ab-96ed-4b7f-88f2-d1244beef638",[643],{"id":644,"_uid":645,"type":646,"_editable":647,"component":648,"fixed_height":649,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":649,"fixed_height_tablet":649},"24047557","i-7075690f-9445-4f2c-a2ce-e54274a15f15","visualisation","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-7075690f-9445-4f2c-a2ce-e54274a15f15\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","ContentFlourish","",{"type":580,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":585},"However, there is little guarantee that higher prices can be sustained in the medium term. Benchmark notes there is over 170Kt LCE of latent capacity at mines on care and maintenance. Price rebounds would be limited by the prospect of this idled capacity returning to market. ",{"type":580,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":585},"Moreover, while many mines across Africa and Australia are losing money, there are reasons for them to stay online. In Africa, factors such as use-it-or-lose-it, vertical integration and cost absorption, confidence in future demand increases, and the belief from Chinese companies that low-price cycles are a good time to invest and expand, are among the key reasons behind continued mine development despite the current low price environment.",{"type":580,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":585},"This is in direct contrast to the Australian perspective, where cost-cutting and downsizing is underway. Australian producers are playing a waiting game – each trying not to be the next closure – watching each other’s balance sheets closely and strategically considering their M&A options.","The lithium supply chain is experiencing structural dislocations, as concentrate (spodumene and mica) supply faces a shortfall of 60kt LCE this year, despite a 70kt LCE surplus in the broader chemical market, according to the latest edition of the Benchmark Lithium Forecast. Concentrate demand is projected to grow 34% year-on-year, owing to the expansion of […]",[667],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":668},{"job_title":571,"image":669,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},{"filename":573},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"e00f4df0-bd33-4f65-a716-dd7e82932e5c\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[673],{"slug":674,"name":675},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":649,"name":649,"focus":649,"title":649,"source":649,"filename":678,"copyright":649,"fieldtype":679,"meta_data":680,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/2926bc2f9e/bm-spodumene5-1.jpg","asset",{"alt":649,"title":649,"source":649,"copyright":649},"Jul 03, 2025","3rd July 2025",[],[],1790082805801]