[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":877},["ShallowReactive",2],{"story-article/lula-s-win-locks-in-brazil-s-push-to-refine-its-own-rare-earths":3,"ticker-data":333},{"id":4,"uuid":5,"name":6,"slug":7,"full_slug":8,"content":9,"relatedArticles":331,"relatedVideos":332},235600814365414,"6bb64396-7119-45cd-9c9d-75b423c24778","Lula’s win locks in Brazil’s push to refine its own rare earths","lula-s-win-locks-in-brazil-s-push-to-refine-its-own-rare-earths","article/lula-s-win-locks-in-brazil-s-push-to-refine-its-own-rare-earths",{"_uid":10,"date":11,"tags":12,"editor":31,"content":41,"excerpt":253,"featured":254,"reporter":255,"component":276,"seo_title":6,"categories":277,"visibility":287,"data_vis_image":288,"featured_image":293,"seo_description":298,"side_panel_banner":299,"formattedDate":329,"formattedArticleDate":330},"71060afb-78aa-4a8d-a7b5-b764cfdf9658","2026-10-28 00:00",[13,16,19,22,25,28],{"slug":14,"name":15},"rare-earth-prices","rare earth prices",{"slug":17,"name":18},"usa-rare-earth","USA Rare Earth",{"slug":20,"name":21},"lynas","Lynas",{"slug":23,"name":24},"brazil","Brazil",{"slug":26,"name":27},"usa","USA",{"slug":29,"name":30},"elections","Elections",[32],{"slug":33,"name":34,"content":35},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":36,"image":37,"bio":39,"linkedin":40},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":38},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":42,"attrs":43,"content":45},"doc",{"backgroundColor":44},null,[46,75,97,107,115,123,131,139,151,159,167,189,195,203,211,228,245],{"type":47,"attrs":48,"content":49},"paragraph",{"textAlign":44},[50,58,70],{"text":51,"type":52,"marks":53},"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October, beating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with about 52% of the vote. His fourth term, starting 5 January 2027, keeps in place a critical minerals policy that raises a question for the ","text",[54],{"type":55,"attrs":56},"textStyle",{"color":57},"#000000",{"text":59,"type":52,"marks":60},"rare earths market",[61,68],{"type":62,"attrs":63},"link",{"href":64,"uuid":65,"anchor":44,"target":66,"linktype":67},"/article/site-visit-report-aclaras-carina-project-shows-progress-towards-rare-earths-supply-diversification","3b1603f8-ee5c-4f56-aa9e-9e4aa45af162","_self","story",{"type":55,"attrs":69},{"color":57},{"text":71,"type":52,"marks":72},": who will process Brazil’s ore?",[73],{"type":55,"attrs":74},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":76,"content":77},{"textAlign":44},[78,83,92],{"text":79,"type":52,"marks":80},"Brazil holds the world’s ",[81],{"type":55,"attrs":82},{"color":57},{"text":84,"type":52,"marks":85},"second-largest rare earth reserves after China",[86,90],{"type":62,"attrs":87},{"href":88,"uuid":89,"anchor":44,"target":66,"linktype":67},"/article/why-diversified-rare-earth-supply-needs-a-price-premium","431d420c-1496-4764-b3a5-e30f2a343fc3",{"type":55,"attrs":91},{"color":57},{"text":93,"type":52,"marks":94},", and Benchmark forecasts mine output to almost triple by 2032 from 5,000 tonnes today to 14,500 tonnes on a risk-weighted basis. Yet there is no domestic refining until 2030 and only small volumes of light rare earths after that.",[95],{"type":55,"attrs":96},{"color":57},{"type":98,"attrs":99,"content":101},"heading",{"level":100,"textAlign":44},2,[102],{"text":103,"type":52,"marks":104},"Policy aims to close refining gap",[105],{"type":55,"attrs":106},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":108,"content":109},{"textAlign":44},[110],{"text":111,"type":52,"marks":112},"In September, Lula’s administration enacted a critical minerals framework that created the National Council for the Industrialisation of Critical and Strategic Minerals, CIMCE, with a say over changes in corporate control and international supply agreements. It also offers tax credits of up to 20% on approved processing spending, capped at 1bn reais (~USD197 million) a year from 2030 through 2034.",[113],{"type":55,"attrs":114},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":116,"content":117},{"textAlign":44},[118],{"text":119,"type":52,"marks":120},"The policy gives developers a clear signal to build downstream, though direct fiscal support doesn’t arrive until 2030. Before then, support comes mainly through guarantees and financing, such as a new Mining Activity Guarantee Fund that has yet to be set up.",[121],{"type":55,"attrs":122},{"color":57},{"type":98,"attrs":124,"content":125},{"level":100,"textAlign":44},[126],{"text":127,"type":52,"marks":128},"Export restrictions amplify the urgency",[129],{"type":55,"attrs":130},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":132,"content":133},{"textAlign":44},[134],{"text":135,"type":52,"marks":136},"Dysprosium and terbium make up about 3.6% of Brazil’s projected 2032 rare earth mine output in Benchmark’s forecast, and yttrium accounts for 30%. The country accounts for a significant proportion of global ex-China mined supply of these heavy rare earths.",[137],{"type":55,"attrs":138},{"color":57},{"type":140,"attrs":141},"blok",{"id":142,"body":143},"431d2b47-7c57-4436-8b63-49525d0926af",[144],{"id":145,"_uid":146,"type":147,"component":148,"fixed_height":149,"use_fixed_height":150,"fixed_height_mobile":149,"fixed_height_tablet":149},"30725183","i-3b044f4b-0ccb-4c18-8ff4-1ec79b688f17","visualisation","ContentFlourish","",false,{"type":47,"attrs":152,"content":153},{"textAlign":44},[154],{"text":155,"type":52,"marks":156},"These rare earths matter because China controls their export and accounts for 97% of the world’s refined heavy rare earths in 2026.",[157],{"type":55,"attrs":158},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":160,"content":161},{"textAlign":44},[162],{"text":163,"type":52,"marks":164},"“Brazil’s ore is richer in the heavies than Australian and North American projects, yet it has no separation capacity to turn that into dysprosium and terbium oxide,” said George Ingall, Senior Analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “Until that changes, buyers outside China will continue to pay a steep premium.”",[165],{"type":55,"attrs":166},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":168,"content":169},{"textAlign":44},[170,175,184],{"text":171,"type":52,"marks":172},"Benchmark assessed ",[173],{"type":55,"attrs":174},{"color":57},{"text":176,"type":52,"marks":177},"dysprosium oxide prices",[178,182],{"type":62,"attrs":179},{"href":180,"uuid":181,"anchor":44,"target":66,"linktype":67},"/article/ex-china-heavy-rare-earths-continue-to-surge-q3-2026-rare-earths-price-review","c667c14e-f8b7-4ab6-8558-8ec901778ab2",{"type":55,"attrs":183},{"color":57},{"text":185,"type":52,"marks":186}," on a CIF Europe basis to be 17 times the DDP China price, whilst terbium oxide is almost nine times the price. The most striking premium is for CIF North America yttrium oxide which is trading at nearly 200 times the DDP China price.",[187],{"type":55,"attrs":188},{"color":57},{"type":140,"attrs":190},{"id":142,"body":191},[192],{"id":193,"_uid":194,"type":147,"component":148,"fixed_height":149,"use_fixed_height":150,"fixed_height_mobile":149,"fixed_height_tablet":149},"30725847","i-0f822a55-bc3e-4096-b7f6-eadda1d97775",{"type":98,"attrs":196,"content":197},{"level":100,"textAlign":44},[198],{"text":199,"type":52,"marks":200},"What is the investment outlook under Lula?",[201],{"type":55,"attrs":202},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":204,"content":205},{"textAlign":44},[206],{"text":207,"type":52,"marks":208},"The administration is expected to keep its established policy direction: welcoming foreign capital, including from American investors, provided processing and value addition occur within domestic borders alongside government oversight of offtake deals and corporate acquisitions.",[209],{"type":55,"attrs":210},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":212,"content":213},{"textAlign":44},[214,223],{"text":215,"type":52,"marks":216},"USA Rare Earth acquired Serra Verde",[217,221],{"type":62,"attrs":218},{"href":219,"uuid":220,"anchor":44,"target":66,"linktype":67},"/article/usa-rare-earth-acquires-serra-verde","033fd4f7-dd04-42d6-9b9e-d31d2ed1321c",{"type":55,"attrs":222},{"color":57},{"text":224,"type":52,"marks":225},", owner of Brazil’s only producing rare earth mine, Pela Ema, this year, and its output is committed for 15 years to a US government-backed offtake vehicle. This mine accounts for three-quarters of Brazil’s forecast 2032 dysprosium and terbium output.",[226],{"type":55,"attrs":227},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":229,"content":230},{"textAlign":44},[231,240],{"text":232,"type":52,"marks":233},"Lynas Rare Earths’",[234,238],{"type":62,"attrs":235},{"href":236,"uuid":237,"anchor":44,"target":66,"linktype":67},"/article/lynas-rare-earths-signs-us-96m-rare-earth-offtake-and-price-floor-commitment-with-dow","f74b2983-4b5a-494e-8eae-ce776123a85e",{"type":55,"attrs":239},{"color":57},{"text":241,"type":52,"marks":242}," proposed takeover of Meteoric Resources will be a test of the CIMCE’s oversight role as it is likely to be the first major transaction to be reviewed by the body.",[243],{"type":55,"attrs":244},{"color":57},{"type":47,"attrs":246,"content":247},{"textAlign":44},[248],{"text":249,"type":52,"marks":250},"With no minerals agreement signed with the US, Lula is expected to diversify instead, implementing the EU-Mercosur accord and building on minerals partnerships signed this year with India and South Korea, alongside announced investments from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.",[251],{"type":55,"attrs":252},{"color":57},"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October, beating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with about 52% of the vote. His fourth term, starting 5 January 2027, keeps in place a critical minerals policy that raises a question for the rare earths market: who will process Brazil’s ore?\n\nBrazil holds the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves after China, and Benchmark forecasts mine output to almost triple by 2032 from 5,000 tonnes today. Yet there is no domestic refining until 2030 and only small volumes of light rare earths after that.",true,[256,266],{"slug":257,"name":258,"content":259},"george-ingall","George Ingall",{"job_title":260,"image":261,"bio":263,"linkedin":264,"markets_covered":265},"Senior Price Analyst - Rare Earths & Battery Minerals",{"filename":262},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/576x576/a492676b0f/george-ingall.png","George specialises in rare earths and battery minerals, with expertise in tracking market movements, pricing trends, and supply-demand dynamics across critical raw materials. Experienced in delivering clear market insights and analysis that support commercial strategy, investment decisions, and industry understanding in fast-evolving global commodities markets.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/georgeingall/","Rare Earths, Cobalt, Natural Graphite, Synthetic Graphite, Anode",{"slug":267,"name":268,"content":269},"bryan-bille","Bryan Bille",{"job_title":270,"image":271,"bio":273,"linkedin":274,"markets_covered":275},"Lead Analyst - Government Policy",{"filename":272},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/1491bc3cc9/bryan-bille.jpeg","Bryan has more than 8 years of policy and geopolitical experience covering numerous areas, such as international trade, industrial policy, critical minerals, battery and EV supply chains and the broader energy transition. Bryan currently oversees Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s policy and geopolitical coverage and leads Benchmark’s strategic outreach to policymakers. Before joining Benchmark, Bryan obtained a degree in corporate law from the University of Antwerp and an international political economy degree from King’s College London. He also held various positions within the Belgian diplomatic corps and politics, where he was involved in multiple policy issues and international negotiations at the EU level. ","https://www.linkedin.com/in/bryanbille/","Critical Mineral, Battery and EV Supply ","article",[278,281,284],{"slug":279,"name":280},"rare-earths","Rare Earths",{"slug":282,"name":283},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":285,"name":286},"raw-materials","Raw Materials","private",{"id":289,"alt":149,"name":149,"focus":149,"title":149,"source":149,"filename":290,"copyright":149,"fieldtype":291,"meta_data":292,"is_external_url":150},235602361072457,"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/1588x1382/797800b8ed/brazil-rare-earths-2x.png","asset",{},{"id":294,"alt":149,"name":149,"focus":149,"title":149,"source":295,"filename":296,"copyright":295,"fieldtype":291,"meta_data":297,"is_external_url":150},235600901016360,"Photo: Ricardo Stuckert / Lula Oficial (Flickr), CC BY-SA 4.0","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/3543x2336/9040c2668e/55534364944_9e5161c351_o.jpg",{"source":295,"copyright":295},"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October. 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