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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":708,"relatedVideos":709},112468285694512,"f4589d9f-bab5-472b-8eab-d6476483bb34","Macro uncertainty and supply disruptions underpin price volatility: Copper 2024 in review","macro-uncertainty-and-supply-disruptions-underpin-price-volatility-copper-2024-in-review","article/macro-uncertainty-and-supply-disruptions-underpin-price-volatility-copper-2024-in-review",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":556,"content":566,"excerpt":684,"featured":51,"reporter":685,"_editable":689,"component":690,"seo_title":543,"categories":691,"visibility":701,"author_company":49,"featured_image":702,"seo_description":684,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":706,"formattedArticleDate":707},"3b3897aa-1600-4293-ad5c-a965c1091b37","2024-12-30 00:00",[550,553],{"slug":551,"name":552},"china","China",{"slug":554,"name":555},"usa","USA",[557],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":560},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":561,"image":562,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":563},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":567,"content":568},"doc",[569,576,581,586,595,600,607,612,617,624,629,634,639,644,649,654,659,664,669,674,679],{"type":570,"attrs":571,"content":572},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[573],{"text":574,"type":575},"Copper prices soared to a record high at close to $11,000 per tonne in early 2024, before tailing off in the latter half of the year on growing macroeconomic uncertainty – stemming primarily from China’s uneven economic performance.","text",{"type":570,"attrs":577,"content":578},{"textAlign":49},[579],{"text":580,"type":575},"The year saw a marked disconnect between the copper concentrate and refined copper markets. Late 2023 and early 2024 saw a series of significant mine supply disruptions, notably the Cobre Panama shutdown and Anglo American’s guidance cutback, that accelerated the shift towards a major copper concentrate deficit.",{"type":570,"attrs":582,"content":583},{"textAlign":49},[584],{"text":585,"type":575},"“As concentrate supply tightened, hedge funds flooded the copper market between March and June, driving prices to all-time highs. This rally was fueled by bullish sentiment around a perceived copper undersupply,” said Piotr Ortonowski, head of copper research at Benchmark.",{"type":570,"attrs":587,"content":588},{"textAlign":49},[589],{"type":590,"attrs":591},"image",{"id":49,"alt":592,"src":593,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":594},"","https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf38naiMtVSX5DEsSmSQBO9hFKZM_MrOG1sf907LpANFBRfYfmKcot3SwauQjTdTjgtOXJgv5hF37U3DdWDAbJHEEGCYcCM9YTcznU5LDS2j3jhEL_dZA8ocmxXS7V13GvKNcePjQ?key=P32v_aFDbGi1xKZr1-413vvv",{},{"type":570,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":575},"“However, there was subsequent realisation that the pronounced concentrate deficit was mainly underpinned by new smelter overcapacity in China, rather than weak mine supply,” Ortonowski added.",{"type":570,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"type":590,"attrs":604},{"id":49,"alt":592,"src":605,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":606},"https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcraUt3TFuBHtPQKjssBdp2leZFd5WJl6zhnSqKFha05UrR2xyb7TsQ5s2Xeuhf_au6vdczmw0kDTXTo65p45HKflcNHc_H5lLGOtDd28cPBtybREuQMgn3koZhu_zw_8xbBhUL?key=P32v_aFDbGi1xKZr1-413vvv",{},{"type":570,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":575},"In contrast, the refined copper market experienced a surplus in 2024. This was driven by slower demand growth in China, primarily due to the ongoing property sector crisis, and other economic headwinds, notably in Europe where high energy costs dampened industrial output. The surplus was exemplified by hefty visible inventory builds in 2024, which was most notable in China during the summer months.",{"type":570,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":575},"Beyond underlying fundamentals, several key macroeconomic trends also influenced the direction for copper prices and are shaping the market’s outlook heading into 2025. ",{"type":618,"attrs":619,"content":621},"heading",{"level":620,"textAlign":49},4,[622],{"text":623,"type":575},"US Fed initiates cycle of rate cuts",{"type":570,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":575},"The US Federal Reserve’s decision to initiate a rate-cutting cycle in September (50bps) provided a tailwind for copper prices. The September announcement was followed by cuts in October (25bps) and December (25bps) – taking the Fed’s rate from an upper range of 5.5% in the summer, to that of 4.5% by year end. ",{"type":570,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":575},"Copper prices were buoyed in the immediate aftermath, reversing a downward trend visible since late May. Lower interest rates typically weaken the US dollar, benefiting dollar-denominated commodities like copper. A softer dollar can make copper more affordable for buyers, increasing demand and supporting higher prices. ",{"type":570,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":575},"The Fed has indicated that it plans to continue cutting rates in 2025, although officials have recently offered a more cautious projection for future rate decisions than previously anticipated as inflation proves stickier than expected.",{"type":618,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"level":620,"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":575},"China’s stimulus shift",{"type":570,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":575},"China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, has faced mixed economic prospects in 2024, linked to a crisis in the country’s property sector. With the domestic market struggling to support economic growth, the Chinese government changed tack on its stimulus strategy in late September. ",{"type":570,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[652],{"text":653,"type":575},"While these measures provided modest support to copper prices through increased infrastructure spending and industrial sector aid, they fell short of expectations. Markets had anticipated a large-scale fiscal stimulus reminiscent of the late-2000s “bazooka” strategy.",{"type":618,"attrs":655,"content":656},{"level":620,"textAlign":49},[657],{"text":658,"type":575},"Trump’s re-election risks",{"type":570,"attrs":660,"content":661},{"textAlign":49},[662],{"text":663,"type":575},"Adding to the disappointment around China’s stimulus, Donald Trump’s November re-election was viewed as a negative development for copper in 2025, pressuring prices late in the year.",{"type":618,"attrs":665,"content":666},{"level":620,"textAlign":49},[667],{"text":668,"type":575},"What’s the outlook?",{"type":570,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":575},"While monetary easing and Chinese policy shifts are broadly positive for copper prices next year, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties tied to Trump’s policies present downside risks. ",{"type":570,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677],{"text":678,"type":575},"In regards to fundamentals, smelter production cuts in China now appear unavoidable with the market’s 2025 benchmark copper concentrate treating and refining charges (TC/RC) at historic lows due to persistent concentrate tightness. Key smelters plan to reduce output by 4-10% next year to compensate, according to Benchmark’s copper analysts.",{"type":570,"attrs":680,"content":681},{"textAlign":49},[682],{"text":683,"type":575},"This, in tandem with continued growth in supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – now the world’s second largest copper producer – means that tightness in the concentrate market could percolate through to the refined market in 2025, leading the market to be more balanced than in 2024.","Copper prices soared to a record high at close to $11,000 per tonne in early 2024, before tailing off in the latter half of the year on growing macroeconomic uncertainty – stemming primarily from China’s uneven economic performance. The year saw a marked disconnect between the copper concentrate and refined copper markets. Late 2023 and […]",[686],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":687},{"job_title":561,"image":688,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},{"filename":563},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"3b3897aa-1600-4293-ad5c-a965c1091b37\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[692,695,698],{"slug":693,"name":694},"copper","Copper",{"slug":696,"name":697},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":699,"name":700},"geopolitics","Geopolitics","private",{"id":49,"alt":592,"name":592,"focus":592,"title":592,"source":592,"filename":703,"copyright":592,"fieldtype":704,"meta_data":705,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/3131780712/bm-containers-1.jpg","asset",{"alt":592,"title":592,"source":592,"copyright":592},"Dec 30, 2024","30th December 2024",[],[],1781280257453]