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East conflict set to push China needle coke prices to three-year high","middle-east-conflict-set-to-push-china-needle-coke-prices-to-three-year-high","article/middle-east-conflict-set-to-push-china-needle-coke-prices-to-three-year-high",{"_uid":556,"date":557,"tags":558,"editor":577,"content":587,"excerpt":788,"featured":51,"reporter":789,"component":798,"seo_title":799,"categories":800,"visibility":816,"data_vis_image":817,"featured_image":822,"seo_description":826,"side_panel_banner":749,"formattedDate":827,"formattedArticleDate":828},"6d6877f4-7ca7-4a52-b290-3f7abbf25391","2026-11-09 00:00",[559,562,565,568,571,574],{"slug":560,"name":561},"middle-east","Middle East",{"slug":563,"name":564},"oil","Oil",{"slug":566,"name":567},"saudi-arabia","Saudi Arabia",{"slug":569,"name":570},"china","China",{"slug":572,"name":573},"graphite-prices","Graphite prices",{"slug":575,"name":576},"data-visualisation","Data Visualisation",[578],{"slug":579,"name":580,"content":581},"benjamin-roche","Benjamin Roche",{"job_title":582,"image":583,"bio":585,"linkedin":586},"Editor – Energy Transition Supply Chains",{"filename":584},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/800x800/66d6674fb8/benjamin-roche.png","Benjamin is Benchmark's Editor for Energy Transition Supply Chains, covering both upstream products like critical minerals and downstream products including energy storage systems and electric vehicles. He has previous experience covering trade flows, tariffs and the effects of geopolitics on supply chains.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminrochecontent/",{"type":588,"attrs":589,"content":590},"doc",{"backgroundColor":49},[591,648,660,681,703,739,750,759,767],{"type":592,"attrs":593,"content":594},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[595,603,615,620,629,634,643],{"text":596,"type":597,"marks":598},"China ","text",[599],{"type":600,"attrs":601},"textStyle",{"color":602},"#000000",{"text":604,"type":597,"marks":605},"needle coke",[606,613],{"type":607,"attrs":608},"link",{"href":609,"uuid":610,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":612},"/article/mitsubishi-chemical-to-exit-needle-coke-business-amid-prolonged-oversupply","46a5c78b-4875-4721-b8d2-a8a71fb860db","_blank","story",{"type":600,"attrs":614},{"color":602},{"text":616,"type":597,"marks":617}," prices are expected to rise sharply in Q4 2026, as escalating ",[618],{"type":600,"attrs":619},{"color":602},{"text":621,"type":597,"marks":622},"conflict in the Middle East",[623,627],{"type":607,"attrs":624},{"href":625,"uuid":626,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":612},"/article/what-does-the-middle-east-conflict-mean-for-battery-supply-chains-","3ba99529-b0e2-4bd1-b7d2-2189b7845e75",{"type":600,"attrs":628},{"color":602},{"text":630,"type":597,"marks":631}," pushes crude oil and slurry oil costs higher. Benchmark forecasts prices to peak in Q1 2027 at their highest level since early 2023, before easing as new ",[632],{"type":600,"attrs":633},{"color":602},{"text":635,"type":597,"marks":636},"supply in China",[637,641],{"type":607,"attrs":638},{"href":639,"uuid":640,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":612},"/videos/commodity-update-graphite","5c28791b-8a7b-4d13-9d1e-48cfbba8a9dd",{"type":600,"attrs":642},{"color":602},{"text":644,"type":597,"marks":645}," comes online.",[646],{"type":600,"attrs":647},{"color":602},{"type":649,"attrs":650,"content":652},"heading",{"level":651,"textAlign":49},2,[653],{"text":654,"type":597,"marks":655},"Feedstock costs surge in a tight market",[656,658],{"type":600,"attrs":657},{"color":602},{"type":659},"bold",{"type":592,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663,668,676],{"text":664,"type":597,"marks":665},"Crude oil prices climbed through October as ",[666],{"type":600,"attrs":667},{"color":602},{"text":621,"type":597,"marks":669},[670,674],{"type":607,"attrs":671},{"href":672,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":673},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/publications/special-issues/the-sulphuric-acid-supply-squeeze-and-its-impact-on-critical-minerals-1","url",{"type":600,"attrs":675},{"color":602},{"text":677,"type":597,"marks":678}," intensified, with Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi energy infrastructure, including key Aramco facilities, raising the risk to regional oil supply. Brent oil prices stayed above $100/bbl throughout the month, peaking at around $117/bbl, before dipping to $90/bbl by 6 November. ",[679],{"type":600,"attrs":680},{"color":602},{"type":592,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684,689,698],{"text":685,"type":597,"marks":686},"“With regional supply risks rising, crude prices are expected to stay high in the near term, keeping slurry oil and needle coke prices elevated,” said Ravindra Panwar, coke analyst at Benchmark. The impact has already passed ",[687],{"type":600,"attrs":688},{"color":602},{"text":690,"type":597,"marks":691},"through Chinese refiners",[692,696],{"type":607,"attrs":693},{"href":694,"uuid":695,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":612},"/article/renewed-hormuz-tensions-reignite-pressure-on-graphite-feedstock-prices","29c6a0d3-a6fb-40f7-afc0-77bb39ada5e2",{"type":600,"attrs":697},{"color":602},{"text":699,"type":597,"marks":700},", with China slurry oil prices rising from $702/t in August to $893/t in October, lifting production costs for oil-based needle coke producers, who account for close to 90% of global supply.",[701],{"type":600,"attrs":702},{"color":602},{"type":592,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706,711,720,725,734],{"text":707,"type":597,"marks":708},"The market is also tight. Restocking ahead of ",[709],{"type":600,"attrs":710},{"color":602},{"text":712,"type":597,"marks":713},"the end of China's battery tax exemption",[714,718],{"type":607,"attrs":715},{"href":716,"uuid":717,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":612},"/article/how-will-chinas-vat-rebate-changes-affect-the-battery-market","7d470beb-9ecf-4916-9e61-7f5c89a5397a",{"type":600,"attrs":719},{"color":602},{"text":721,"type":597,"marks":722},", which also affects materials including ",[723],{"type":600,"attrs":724},{"color":602},{"text":726,"type":597,"marks":727},"anode",[728,732],{"type":607,"attrs":729},{"href":730,"uuid":731,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":612},"/article/feedstock-costs-rise-but-aam-prices-hold-firm-anode-and-graphite-q3-2026-price-review","de97d2ba-5af8-4efb-b17e-a6f58fd907bc",{"type":600,"attrs":733},{"color":602},{"text":735,"type":597,"marks":736},", has lifted synthetic anode demand, but supply could not keep up, as these higher costs forced oil-based producers to reduce output. Coal-based producers gained a cost advantage on raw material and increased output, but not enough to offset the shortfall, and the market is expected to enter a 44kt deficit in 2026.",[737],{"type":600,"attrs":738},{"color":602},{"type":740,"attrs":741},"blok",{"id":742,"body":743},"c69d4148-9d62-44c0-83ff-a18b11394037",[744],{"id":745,"_uid":746,"type":747,"component":748,"fixed_height":749,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":749,"fixed_height_tablet":749},"30854222","i-93c970f5-efbf-4ede-bfb3-0633a36ada73","visualisation","ContentFlourish","",{"type":649,"attrs":751,"content":752},{"level":651,"textAlign":49},[753],{"text":754,"type":597,"marks":755},"Prices to peak in Q1 2027 then ease",[756,758],{"type":600,"attrs":757},{"color":602},{"type":659},{"type":592,"attrs":760,"content":761},{"textAlign":49},[762],{"text":763,"type":597,"marks":764},"Benchmark forecasts pre-calcined needle coke prices to jump around 9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2026, hitting $1,199/tonne, while calcined prices are forecast to rise 10% to $1,450/tonne. Both are expected to peak in Q1 2027, meanwhile, at $1,211/t and $1,461/t respectively. They are expected to ease from Q2 as crude oil prices soften and new oil-based capacity ramps up in China. ",[765],{"type":600,"attrs":766},{"color":602},{"type":592,"attrs":768,"content":769},{"textAlign":49},[770,775,783],{"text":771,"type":597,"marks":772},"Pre-calcined prices are expected to average $1,053/t for 2026 (up 31% year-on-year), and calcined $1,289/t (up 16% year-on-year), rising a further 6% for both in 2027. The market is expected to return to a 68kt surplus in 2027 but, in the meantime, synthetic ",[773],{"type":600,"attrs":774},{"color":602},{"text":726,"type":597,"marks":776},[777,781],{"type":607,"attrs":778},{"href":779,"uuid":780,"anchor":49,"target":611,"linktype":612},"/article/could-the-middle-east-become-an-anode-supply-chain-hub-","28f34dd6-884f-4a75-9318-2cdda457d5ac",{"type":600,"attrs":782},{"color":602},{"text":784,"type":597,"marks":785}," and graphite electrode producers are likely to face rising feedstock costs through Q1 2027.",[786],{"type":600,"attrs":787},{"color":602},"China needle coke prices are expected to rise sharply in Q4 2026, as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes crude oil and slurry oil costs higher. Benchmark forecasts prices to peak in Q1 2027 at their highest level since early 2023, before easing as new supply in China comes online.\n\nCrude oil prices climbed through October as conflict in the Middle East intensified, with Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi energy infrastructure, including key Aramco facilities, raising the risk to regional oil supply. Brent oil prices stayed above $100/bbl throughout the month, peaking at around $117/bbl, before dipping to $90/bbl by 6 November. ",[790],{"slug":791,"name":792,"content":793},"ravindra-panwar","Ravindra Panwar",{"job_title":794,"image":795,"linkedin":797},"Analyst - Coke",{"filename":796},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2ac57b38a9/ravindra-panwar.jpeg","https://www.linkedin.com/in/ravindra-panwar/","article","Middle East conflict to push China needle coke to three-year high",[801,802,805,807,810,813],{"slug":726,"name":261},{"slug":803,"name":804},"synthetic-graphite","Synthetic Graphite",{"slug":806,"name":190},"natural-graphite",{"slug":808,"name":809},"graphite","Graphite",{"slug":811,"name":812},"raw-materials","Raw Materials",{"slug":814,"name":815},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":818,"alt":749,"name":749,"focus":749,"title":749,"source":749,"filename":819,"copyright":749,"fieldtype":820,"meta_data":821,"is_external_url":50},239808163222074,"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/1588x1150/dcd0b0df5b/new-format-needle-coke-is-forecast-to-enter-a-surplus-from-2027-as-new-chinese-supply-comes-online-2x.png","asset",{},{"id":823,"alt":749,"name":749,"focus":749,"title":749,"source":749,"filename":824,"copyright":749,"fieldtype":820,"meta_data":825,"is_external_url":50},239807452516871,"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/5446x3060/4399ee11ff/oil-tanker-unloading.jpeg",{},"China needle coke prices are expected to rise sharply in Q4 2026, as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes crude oil and slurry oil costs higher.","Nov 09, 2026","9th November 2026",[],[],1794329576745]