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review","natural-graphite-market-dominated-by-oversupply-2023-in-review","article/natural-graphite-market-dominated-by-oversupply-2023-in-review",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":550,"content":560,"excerpt":811,"featured":50,"reporter":812,"_editable":816,"component":817,"seo_title":543,"categories":818,"visibility":825,"author_company":49,"featured_image":826,"seo_description":811,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":830,"formattedArticleDate":831},"f7e0b7fe-a508-454f-b983-7e79a5f93a48","2023-12-20 00:00",[],[551],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":554},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":555,"image":556,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":557},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":561,"content":562},"doc",[563,580,585,590,603,614,621,630,642,647,652,665,670,675,680,685,690,700,705,717,722,734,739,748,753,758,763,768,773,778,783,788,801,806],{"type":564,"attrs":565,"content":566},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[567,570,578],{"text":568,"type":569},"China’s announcement of graphite ","text",{"text":571,"type":569,"marks":572},"export regulations",[573],{"type":574,"attrs":575},"link",{"href":576,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-graphite-export-restrictions-could-hinder-ex-china-anode-development","url",{"text":579,"type":569}," increased supply security concerns across the anode value chain in 2023, intensifying calls for industry diversification. ",{"type":564,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":569},"Despite the threat of export controls, prices remained under pressure for most of 2023, with November only seeing a marginal  uptick in natural graphite prices following China’s announcement.",{"type":564,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":569},"While the global market balance remains in surplus, increasing scrutiny on reshoring and sustainability, suggest the market could become increasingly bifurcated over the coming years, with higher prices likely to be required to facilitate supply diversification. ",{"type":564,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593,595,601],{"text":594,"type":569},"Up to the end of November graphite prices had fallen by 27% on average in 2023. In comparison ",{"text":596,"type":569,"marks":597},"Benchmark’s Flake Graphite Price Index",[598],{"type":574,"attrs":599},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/natural-graphite/portal/?tab=table",{"text":602,"type":569}," had risen by 10% in 2022 and 20% in 2021.",{"type":564,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":569,"marks":608},"Watch Benchmark analyst Adam Megginson discuss the key natural graphite market trends of 2023",[609,612],{"type":574,"attrs":610},{"href":611,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/video/watch/a-growing-geopolitical-role-natural-graphite-market-2023-in-review",{"type":613},"italic",{"type":615,"attrs":616,"content":618},"heading",{"level":617,"textAlign":49},4,[619],{"text":620,"type":569},"Where next for Chinese graphite?",{"type":564,"attrs":622,"content":623},{"textAlign":49},[624,628],{"text":596,"type":569,"marks":625},[626],{"type":574,"attrs":627},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},{"text":629,"type":569}," rose by 2.3% throughout November, due to improved demand for exported material ahead of China’s export regulations being implemented on 1 December.",{"type":564,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633,635,640],{"text":634,"type":569},"The concern is that",{"text":636,"type":569,"marks":637}," China could limit feedstock exports",[638],{"type":574,"attrs":639},{"href":576,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},{"text":641,"type":569},", disrupting production for anode producers in South Korea and Japan. ",{"type":564,"attrs":643,"content":644},{"textAlign":49},[645],{"text":646,"type":569},"The new rules say that Chinese graphite exporters must now apply for and obtain a permit from the state to sell abroad and report on the products they are selling abroad as well as their destinations. ",{"type":564,"attrs":648,"content":649},{"textAlign":49},[650],{"text":651,"type":569},"Since the rules took effect, China’s Ministry of Commerce has approved “several” applications that meet the requirements, spokesperson Shu Jueting said during a press conference. ",{"type":564,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":49},[655,657,663],{"text":656,"type":569},"Apart from China, South Korea and Japan are the only other significant active anode material producers, in second and third place at 14% and 7% of global supply, according to",{"text":658,"type":569,"marks":659}," Benchmark’s Anode Forecast",[660],{"type":574,"attrs":661},{"href":662,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/anode/reports/",{"text":664,"type":569},". They are heavily dependent on China for their flake and spherical graphite feedstock. ",{"type":564,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":569},"China has already assured South Korea anode manufacturers that it will not restrict supply as long as buyers abided by Chinese laws. ",{"type":564,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":569},"Nonetheless, the fact that China now has the administrative instruments to disrupt overseas anode manufacturing has trained attention on the lack of supply diversity in this often overlooked segment of the lithium ion supply chain.",{"type":564,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":569},"For now, China remains the centre of gravity for natural graphite markets and movements there are what have shaped patterns of supply and demand through the year. ",{"type":615,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"level":617,"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":569},"Signs of weakening EV demand",{"type":564,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":569},"In 2023, the natural graphite market saw increased oversupply and price declines throughout most of the year. Continued upstream production, healthy inventories among downstream producers, and slow demand from the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry were some of the factors impacting the sector. ",{"type":564,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693,698],{"text":694,"type":569,"marks":695},"Benchmark’s Natural Graphite Price Index",[696],{"type":574,"attrs":697},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},{"text":699,"type":569}," fell by 27% this year, while the type of flake graphite used in batteries (-100 Mesh, 94-95% C) declined by 30% to $650 a tonne.",{"type":564,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":569},"“Weak demand has aggravated strong supply. The last time we had seen a 30% drop rate was in 2019,” said Benchmark analyst Tony Alderson.",{"type":564,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708,710,715],{"text":709,"type":569},"Some of the sharpest month-on-month declines for natural graphite began in February when the",{"text":711,"type":569,"marks":712}," Benchmark Flake Graphite Price Index",[713],{"type":574,"attrs":714},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},{"text":716,"type":569}," fell by 5.7%. This was the direct result of weakening EV industry demand after the withdrawal of Chinese EV tax credits at the start of the year.",{"type":564,"attrs":718,"content":719},{"textAlign":49},[720],{"text":721,"type":569},"March saw the seasonal restart of flake graphite mining in Heilongjiang province, the global centre of upstream graphite production. ",{"type":564,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725,727,732],{"text":726,"type":569},"In April came another steep drop, with",{"text":728,"type":569,"marks":729}," Benchmark’s Flake Graphite Price Index",[730],{"type":574,"attrs":731},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},{"text":733,"type":569}," falling by 6.4% month-on-month on the back of continued weak demand from the anode sector. ",{"type":564,"attrs":735,"content":736},{"textAlign":49},[737],{"text":738,"type":569},"Weak market conditions on the back of residual oversupply from 2022 and slower EV demand growth were main factors impacting prices, but interactions between market players themselves, as well as the structure of the supply chain, further dampened prices.",{"type":564,"attrs":740,"content":741},{"textAlign":49},[742],{"type":743,"attrs":744},"image",{"id":49,"alt":745,"src":746,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":747},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/a0161217e8/bm-naturalgraphiteprices2023.png",{},{"type":564,"attrs":749,"content":750},{"textAlign":49},[751],{"text":752,"type":569},"Firstly, anode manufacturers have strong negotiating power and pushed for discounts on flake and spherical graphite throughout the year.",{"type":564,"attrs":754,"content":755},{"textAlign":49},[756],{"text":757,"type":569},"Another factor was the interplay between producers of flake graphite and their customers, producers of spherical graphite. Their attempts to stem margin pressures in an oversupplied market tended to worsen losses, triggering a feedback loop between low prices, low profits, and a cost-cutting imperative that drove further discounts.",{"type":564,"attrs":759,"content":760},{"textAlign":49},[761],{"text":762,"type":569},"Even a temporary recovery in Chinese EV demand between May and July did not produce any price strengthening across the natural graphite products, indicating the level of market saturation. ",{"type":615,"attrs":764,"content":765},{"level":617,"textAlign":49},[766],{"text":767,"type":569},"Capacity investments continue ",{"type":564,"attrs":769,"content":770},{"textAlign":49},[771],{"text":772,"type":569},"Oversupply did not stop upstream and midstream investments and capacity developments over the year, however. ",{"type":564,"attrs":774,"content":775},{"textAlign":49},[776],{"text":777,"type":569},"In May, Aofeng New Material Technology, announced that it had finished construction at its spherical graphite facility and integrated anode project located in Mudanjiang city in Heilongjiang.",{"type":564,"attrs":779,"content":780},{"textAlign":49},[781],{"text":782,"type":569},"The second quarter of the year also saw a rush of ex-China projects. South Korean cell manufacturer SK On announced a joint development agreement with US graphite project developer and anode aspirant Westwater Resources in May. The following month, US anode company Superior Graphite announced plans to invest in an anode project in Kentucky with a 24,000 tonne per annum capacity of natural graphite anode material. ",{"type":564,"attrs":784,"content":785},{"textAlign":49},[786],{"text":787,"type":569},"Australian-listed anode developer, Talga, received approval for 150 million euros ($163 million) from the European Investment Bank (EIB) to help progress its Vittangi anode project in Luleå Industrial Park, Sweden.",{"type":564,"attrs":789,"content":790},{"textAlign":49},[791,793,799],{"text":792,"type":569},"Continued investments into natural graphite supply despite the weak market conditions reflects a general sentiment through the industry that in the long-term, rapid growth in battery demand will justify added capacity. ",{"text":794,"type":569,"marks":795},"Benchmark’s Natural Graphite Forecast",[796],{"type":574,"attrs":797},{"href":798,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":577},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/natural-graphite/reports/",{"text":800,"type":569}," supports this outlook, showing that a prolonged deficit for natural graphite will set in from 2028 onwards.",{"type":564,"attrs":802,"content":803},{"textAlign":49},[804],{"text":805,"type":569},"Like other battery materials, rising battery demand will feed significant deficits before the decade is up. In the short term however, price declines and strong supply will persist. ",{"type":564,"attrs":807,"content":808},{"textAlign":49},[809],{"text":810,"type":569},"“The flake graphite market in 2024 is expected to be in a marginal surplus, as demand is set to grow in line with new graphite projects coming online and increasing supply throughout that period,” said Alderson.","China’s announcement of graphite export regulations increased supply security concerns across the anode value chain in 2023, intensifying calls for industry diversification. Despite the threat of export controls, prices remained under pressure for most of 2023, with November only seeing a marginal uptick in natural graphite prices following China’s announcement. While the global market balance remains […]",[813],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":814},{"job_title":555,"image":815,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},{"filename":557},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"f7e0b7fe-a508-454f-b983-7e79a5f93a48\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[819,822],{"slug":820,"name":821},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":823,"name":824},"graphite","Graphite","private",{"id":49,"alt":745,"name":745,"focus":745,"title":745,"source":745,"filename":827,"copyright":745,"fieldtype":828,"meta_data":829,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/7ffa369126/bm-2022naturalgraphitetrialmine.jpg","asset",{"alt":745,"title":745,"source":745,"copyright":745},"Dec 20, 2023","20th December 2023",[],[],1783682675431]