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SUPPLY SHOCK","nickel-supply-shock","article/nickel-supply-shock",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":675,"featured":50,"reporter":676,"_editable":680,"component":681,"seo_title":553,"categories":682,"visibility":691,"author_company":49,"featured_image":692,"seo_description":675,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":697,"formattedArticleDate":698},"49af59ce-01bb-474e-a91a-88e52533c8d9","2019-10-25 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,581,587,592,597,604,611,616,623,628,633,638,645,650,655,660,665,670],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":577},"heading",{"level":576,"textAlign":49},4,[578],{"text":579,"type":580},"The nickel market was shocked by Indonesia’s announcement of an earlier than expected nickel ore export ban. Here, Benchmark looks at the key points and the implications for the battery market.","text",{"type":582,"attrs":583,"content":584},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[585],{"text":586,"type":580},"Indonesia shocked the market in September 2019 as it brought forward its plan to ban exports of nickel ore to January 2020 – two years earlier than it had previously announced – in its drive to promote more downstream domestic processing.",{"type":582,"attrs":588,"content":589},{"textAlign":49},[590],{"text":591,"type":580},"The nickel market is dominated by stainless steel production and much of nickel ore produced in Indonesia is bound for China’s stainless-steel industry. Last year exports from Indonesia accounted for approximately a third of nickel entering China and 11% of global supply. Indonesia’s share of global supply was forecast to increase significantly out to the 2020s, however, the latest news is likely to curtail these capacity increases.",{"type":582,"attrs":593,"content":594},{"textAlign":49},[595],{"text":596,"type":580},"Luhut Pandjaitan, a coordinating minister overseeing mining, said of the government’s decision, “now (exports) may be at $7.8 billion, in 2020 they will reach $12 billion and in 2024 they may exceed $30 billion, including exports of lithium batteries” highlighting how the country hopes to cement a downstream role in the electric vehicle supply chain.",{"type":582,"attrs":598,"content":599},{"textAlign":49},[600,602],{"text":601,"type":580},"Although the decision to bring the ban",{"text":603,"type":580},"forward is a shock, Indonesia’s recent history illustrates that shock decisions related to its mining industry are not a new phenomenon. Only ten years ago Indonesia passed the Mining Law, which led to a 2014 ore export ban mandating that companies must process ore before exporting it.",{"type":582,"attrs":605,"content":606},{"textAlign":49},[607,609],{"text":608,"type":580},"Similar to the latest export ban, the government is looking to restructure the economy and develop the downstream industries associated with mining and processing. The original policy seemed to be having positive effects as processed nickel exports were on the rise, however, to the surprise of many the ban was short-lived and by Q1 2017 it had been overturned. It only took",{"text":610,"type":580},"three years and another shock for the decision to be effectively reversed again.",{"type":582,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":580},"The effects of the ore ban were potentially compounded with the news that a mining operation based in the Philippines’ southern Tawi-Tawi province was set to cease operations soon as its ore resources have almost depleted. The two countries are a hub of nickel production, thus a drop in supply from the two could have far reaching effects.",{"type":582,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619,621],{"text":620,"type":580},"Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, it was reported that a nickel processing plant owned by the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) could face closure following the spillage of mine waste in Papua New Guinea. How mining operations manage waste is already under more scrutiny",{"text":622,"type":580},"following the recent Vale disaster in Brazil. MCC could face a range of punishments for the incident at its Ramu mine, ranging from compensation, legal action and ultimately to mine closure. The outcome of this decision is yet to be seen but if the operation were to close it would act as a further supply shock.",{"type":582,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":580},"With lithium ion batteries using ever higher nickel content nickel’s role in the electric vehicle supply chain is set to grow exponentially. However, demand for battery grade nickel sulphate from the lithium ion battery industry currently represents a small proportion of the wider nickel market which is dominated by stainless-steel production.",{"type":574,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"level":576,"textAlign":49},[631],{"text":632,"type":580},"How do these developments impact the battery market?",{"type":582,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"textAlign":49},[636],{"text":637,"type":580},"Within the nickel market, “class 1” nickel has typically been used in the battery sector, either produced directly as a sulphate or converted from a metal product. Indonesian ore usually follows the “class 2” route, ultimately producing nickel pig iron (NPI) destined for the stainless-steel sector.",{"type":582,"attrs":639,"content":640},{"textAlign":49},[641,643],{"text":642,"type":580},"While the supply shock does not directly",{"text":644,"type":580},"affect the supply of class 1 nickel, it’s likely that we will see a greater share of class 1 nickel consumed by the stainless-steel industry in 2020. Much of the ore exported from Indonesia and the Philippines is smelted into NPI for stainless steel and some of this supply will have to come from elsewhere.",{"type":582,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":580},"While Indonesian nickel exporters will be feeling the burn from the export-ban, producers with downstream projects in the country will have a head start and add further incentive to ramp up operations and bring them online.",{"type":582,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":580},"One of the boldest downstream Indonesian projects is led by Chinese stainless-steel manufacturer Tsingshan, in partnership with GEM and CATL. The processing plant was announced in Q3 2018 with capex costs of $700 million. The operation is being developed to use a high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) process and will reportedly target 131,000 tonnes per annum of nickel sulphate. Production is expected to begin in 2021 and operations are expected to ramp up to capacity in 2022.",{"type":582,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":580},"However, there has been much scepticism within the industry surrounding both the proposed capex and timelines to production.",{"type":582,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":580},"There were even reports over the quarter that the total costs of the project could more than double to $1.5 billion, although this was denied by GEM.",{"type":582,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":580},"The route to battery grade nickel sulphate from laterite ores using HPAL is energy intensive and uses chemical heavy processing. HPAL projects are also typically capital intensive and the space is littered with a number of projects failing to meet their nameplate capacity. The consortium backing the Morowali project hopes it can set a new standard for the electric vehicle supply chain looking to meet growing nickel sulphate demand from battery producers, however, it looks like its initial goals were too optimistic.",{"type":582,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":580},"The Indonesian government hopes their nickel export ban will spur the development of its nascent downstream industry. The immediate consequence of the decision has been an uptick in nickel pricing. With Indonesia’s history of reversing decisions there is no certainty that this policy will prevail in the long-term but as the nickel market transforms with the ascendancy of the battery supply chain Indonesia will continue to play a role regardless of its position in the value chain.","The nickel market was shocked by Indonesia’s announcement of an earlier than expected nickel ore export ban. Here, Benchmark looks at the key points and the implications for the battery market. Indonesia shocked the market in September 2019 as it brought forward its plan to ban exports of nickel ore to January 2020 – two […]",[677],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":678},{"job_title":565,"image":679,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"49af59ce-01bb-474e-a91a-88e52533c8d9\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[683,686,689],{"slug":684,"name":685},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":687,"name":688},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":690,"name":150},"nickel","private",{"id":49,"alt":693,"name":693,"focus":693,"title":693,"source":693,"filename":694,"copyright":693,"fieldtype":695,"meta_data":696,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/2dadbfe914/bm-credit-imo-e1571740886342-711253b6c0c.jpg","asset",{"alt":693,"title":693,"source":693,"copyright":693},"Oct 25, 2019","25th October 2019",[],[],1792688596775]