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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":908,"relatedVideos":909},112471915596690,"eea20d62-e55a-4f8d-8ba7-293033215253","OPINION: Albemarle’s turbo-charged demand data showcases lithium’s growing supply problem","opinion-albemarles-turbo-charged-demand-data-showcases-lithiums-growing-supply-problem","article/opinion-albemarles-turbo-charged-demand-data-showcases-lithiums-growing-supply-problem",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":559,"content":569,"excerpt":886,"featured":51,"reporter":887,"_editable":891,"component":892,"seo_title":543,"categories":893,"visibility":898,"author_company":899,"featured_image":900,"seo_description":886,"author_full_name":904,"author_job_title":905,"formattedDate":906,"formattedArticleDate":907},"7679f272-970a-47d2-a118-80458c040259","2023-01-26 00:00",[550,553,556],{"slug":551,"name":552},"albemarle","Albemarle",{"slug":554,"name":555},"lithium-prices","Lithium prices",{"slug":557,"name":558},"opinion","Opinion",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":563},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":564,"image":565,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":566},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":570,"content":571},"doc",[572,589,594,615,620,625,634,639,652,657,662,671,676,681,690,695,715,722,727,732,737,742,747,752,759,770,775,780,785,790,795,806,811,816,821,826,831,836,841,846,851,856,861,866,871,876,881],{"type":573,"attrs":574,"content":575},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[576,579,587],{"text":577,"type":578},"The revealing of a new ","text",{"text":580,"type":578,"marks":581},"lithium",[582],{"type":583,"attrs":584},"link",{"href":585,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":586},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/the-lithium-lag-why-battery-costs-wont-fall-immediately","url",{"text":588,"type":578}," demand number by Albemarle in this week’s strategy update saw a big shift upwards in the data and a ramping up of rhetoric that sparked a number of talking points. ",{"type":573,"attrs":590,"content":591},{"textAlign":49},[592],{"text":593,"type":578},"The world’s third biggest lithium chemical producer by output and biggest by market cap, Albemarle said it expected lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) demand to reach 3.7 million tonnes by 2030 – a significant revision upwards in its projections. ",{"type":573,"attrs":595,"content":596},{"textAlign":49},[597,599,605,607,613],{"text":598,"type":578},"The driver behind the new demand data is the ",{"text":600,"type":578,"marks":601},"Inflation Reduction Act",[602],{"type":583,"attrs":603},{"href":604,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":586},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/ira-lifts-us-battery-pipeline-growth-in-second-half-of-the-year-outpacing-europe",{"text":606,"type":578}," (IRA), which has turbo-charged battery supply chain initiatives and electric vehicle ",{"text":608,"type":578,"marks":609},"plans in North America",[610],{"type":583,"attrs":611},{"href":612,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":586},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/tesla-takes-on-byds-crown-with-100-gwh-nevada-expansion",{"text":614,"type":578},". ",{"type":573,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":578},"It demonstrates what specific government policy can do to an industry already struggling to fulfil existing demand growth. ",{"type":573,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":578},"“The reality is that the EV revolution is here to stay,” Eric Norris, president of lithium at Albemarle, said this week. ",{"type":573,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"type":629,"attrs":630},"image",{"id":49,"alt":631,"src":632,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":633},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/a20bff216b/bm-image-22-1.png",{},{"type":573,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":578},"The new demand number was a stand out statistic: it was a rallying call from Albemarle and its leadership team that the rate of demand is far outpacing the supply response and that it is getting worse not better. ",{"type":573,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642,644,650],{"text":643,"type":578},"Yet with this great raw material disconnect between ",{"text":645,"type":578,"marks":646},"lithium supply",[647],{"type":583,"attrs":648},{"href":649,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":586},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/video/watch/analyst-insights-what-is-happening-in-the-lithium-market",{"text":651,"type":578}," and real, existing demand, not going to be truly solved this decade, are new demand data and concepts becoming irrelevant?",{"type":573,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":49},[655],{"text":656,"type":578},"With this in mind, how should we view these new (and any) demand numbers? ",{"type":573,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":578},"A good way to frame all lithium supply and demand data points, in a world flooded with information, is put all data into three categories:",{"type":663,"attrs":664,"content":666},"heading",{"level":665,"textAlign":49},4,[667,669],{"text":668,"type":578},"1. ",{"text":670,"type":578},"Total pipeline lithium demand (everything added up) ",{"type":573,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":578},"The demand for EVs, all planned ESS installations, and all technology are satisfied by 2030. ",{"type":573,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":578},"Considering the wide variety of forecasts out there, this number could sit anywhere between 3m tonnes and 4m tonnes LCE. ",{"type":663,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"level":665,"textAlign":49},[684,686,688],{"text":685,"type":578},"2. ",{"text":687,"type":578},"Benchmark Base Lithium Demand",{"text":689,"type":578}," (a reality) ",{"type":573,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":578},"This is Benchmark’s calculation of how much lithium will be required by the market at that time – i.e. how many batteries and how much lithium will really be needed by active products in the market (EVs, ESS installations, and portable technology). ",{"type":573,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698,700,706,708,713],{"text":699,"type":578},"This stands at 2.4m tonnes LCE as of our latest ",{"text":701,"type":578,"marks":702},"Benchmark Lithium Forecast",[703],{"type":583,"attrs":704},{"href":705,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":586},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/#lithium",{"text":707,"type":578}," service and can be viewed as a ",{"text":709,"type":578,"marks":710},"base demand forecast ",[711],{"type":712},"italic",{"text":714,"type":578},"– what is likely to come to pass. ",{"type":663,"attrs":716,"content":717},{"level":665,"textAlign":49},[718,720],{"text":719,"type":578},"3. ",{"text":721,"type":578},"The intersect between supply and demand",{"type":573,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725],{"text":726,"type":578},"What ultimately matters is where supply and demand intersect. If demand is not fulfilled at that point in time it either shifts into the near term future or dissolves.",{"type":573,"attrs":728,"content":729},{"textAlign":49},[730],{"text":731,"type":578},"What can only be certain is how much lithium is produced and whether this is all absorbed in the market.",{"type":573,"attrs":733,"content":734},{"textAlign":49},[735],{"text":736,"type":578},"So a way to view this is: how big can the lithium supply number really get as things stand? ",{"type":663,"attrs":738,"content":739},{"level":665,"textAlign":49},[740],{"text":741,"type":578},"Lithium supply ",{"type":573,"attrs":743,"content":744},{"textAlign":49},[745],{"text":746,"type":578},"Right now, Benchmark’s base case lithium supply by 2030 is 2.1m tonnes (Q4 2022 Benchmark Lithium Forecast service). ",{"type":573,"attrs":748,"content":749},{"textAlign":49},[750],{"text":751,"type":578},"Wider projections can range from 1.8m to 2.8m tonnes, however. ",{"type":573,"attrs":753,"content":754},{"textAlign":49},[755],{"type":629,"attrs":756},{"id":49,"alt":631,"src":757,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":758},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/d4161fd8de/bm-lithium-demand-scenarios-2030.png",{},{"type":573,"attrs":760,"content":761},{"textAlign":49},[762,764,768],{"text":763,"type":578},"This would be ",{"text":765,"type":578,"marks":766},"44% less ",[767],{"type":712},{"text":769,"type":578},"than Albemarle’s demand projection of 3.7m tonnes by 2030. ",{"type":573,"attrs":771,"content":772},{"textAlign":49},[773],{"text":774,"type":578},"Even Benchmark’s Base Lithium demand number results in a 12.5% supply deficit – the equivalent of at least six lithium mines, and 50% the size of the entire industry in 2022.",{"type":663,"attrs":776,"content":777},{"level":665,"textAlign":49},[778],{"text":779,"type":578},"Not on course",{"type":573,"attrs":781,"content":782},{"textAlign":49},[783],{"text":784,"type":578},"As things stand, the lithium industry is not on course to even meet the most modest of demand projections, let alone the dream scenarios that are growing by the day as a result of the IRA. ",{"type":573,"attrs":786,"content":787},{"textAlign":49},[788],{"text":789,"type":578},"Albemarle’s 3.7m tonnes demand projection is 54% higher than Benchmark’s base case forecast of 2.4m tonnes in 2030 – the difference between automotive EV dreams and the reality of what the industry can likely achieve.  ",{"type":573,"attrs":791,"content":792},{"textAlign":49},[793],{"text":794,"type":578},"Financiers need to now think in the billions of dollars of investment not the hundreds of millions. ",{"type":573,"attrs":796,"content":797},{"textAlign":49},[798,800,802],{"text":799,"type":578},"Permitting for mines and chemical plants in North America and Europe will need to be reformed to",{"text":801,"type":578},"half the process time at a ",{"text":803,"type":578,"marks":804},"minimum. ",[805],{"type":712},{"type":573,"attrs":807,"content":808},{"textAlign":49},[809],{"text":810,"type":578},"Governments can no longer claim to be serious about Net Zero and EVs if they are not serious about reforming permitting for critical minerals that are central to these goals. ",{"type":663,"attrs":812,"content":813},{"level":665,"textAlign":49},[814],{"text":815,"type":578},"The world needs new mines",{"type":573,"attrs":817,"content":818},{"textAlign":49},[819],{"text":820,"type":578},"The challenge now lies firmly on bringing new lithium mines to production and massively expanding existing operations.",{"type":573,"attrs":822,"content":823},{"textAlign":49},[824],{"text":825,"type":578},"Even Tesla’s Elon Musk is beginning to come round to the opinion that lithium supply is an issue after decade of publicly declaring it a non-issue: ",{"type":573,"attrs":827,"content":828},{"textAlign":49},[829],{"text":830,"type":578},"“Lithium refinement needs to increase dramatically, but lithium ore itself is extremely common throughout Earth,” Musk said on 22 January 2023. ",{"type":573,"attrs":832,"content":833},{"textAlign":49},[834],{"text":835,"type":578},"Adding to this comment six months earlier: ",{"type":573,"attrs":837,"content":838},{"textAlign":49},[839],{"text":840,"type":578},"“It is basically like minting money right now. There’s, like, software margins in lithium processing right now. So I would really like to encourage, once again, entrepreneurs to enter the lithium refining business. You can’t lose.”",{"type":573,"attrs":842,"content":843},{"textAlign":49},[844],{"text":845,"type":578},"Albemarle is stepping up as much as a publicly listed company can and said it plans to triple its conversion capacity to around 600,000 tonnes LCE to help cover the shortfall.",{"type":573,"attrs":847,"content":848},{"textAlign":49},[849],{"text":850,"type":578},"Yet meeting that demand will require major new entrants to enter lithium with bold plans and the rest of the industry to accelerate their production plans far beyond anyone’s comfort zone. ",{"type":663,"attrs":852,"content":853},{"level":665,"textAlign":49},[854],{"text":855,"type":578},"A game of scale",{"type":573,"attrs":857,"content":858},{"textAlign":49},[859],{"text":860,"type":578},"It is not just a numbers game any more – in terms of new lithium projects making it through the pipeline from discovery to first production –  but also now a scale game, where new mines and existing expansions need to be planned longer term and ten-times bigger than they are today. ",{"type":573,"attrs":862,"content":863},{"textAlign":49},[864],{"text":865,"type":578},"New lithium producers have to build into a market in excess of 2m tonnes LCE a year, not the  640,000 tonne LCE market that we saw in 2022. ",{"type":573,"attrs":867,"content":868},{"textAlign":49},[869],{"text":870,"type":578},"The lithium industry now needs to think in the millions of tonnes not the hundreds of thousands of tonnes when building operations or mining and refining ecosystems. ",{"type":573,"attrs":872,"content":873},{"textAlign":49},[874],{"text":875,"type":578},"Are EVs becoming an improbable dream?",{"type":573,"attrs":877,"content":878},{"textAlign":49},[879],{"text":880,"type":578},"Not quite and not yet: this is a gap that can be bridged, but capital will need to start rapidly increasing the speed of supply expansions in the near-term to make this a reality.",{"type":573,"attrs":882,"content":883},{"textAlign":49},[884],{"text":885,"type":578},"The next three years will be the most telling as the EV revolution moves from startup phase to scaling up. ","The revealing of a new lithium demand number by Albemarle in this week’s strategy update saw a big shift upwards in the data and a ramping up of rhetoric that sparked a number of talking points. The world’s third biggest lithium chemical producer by output and biggest by market cap, Albemarle said it expected lithium […]",[888],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":889},{"job_title":564,"image":890,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},{"filename":566},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"7679f272-970a-47d2-a118-80458c040259\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[894,897],{"slug":895,"name":896},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":580,"name":8},"public","Benchmark Mineral Intelligence",{"id":49,"alt":631,"name":631,"focus":631,"title":631,"source":631,"filename":901,"copyright":631,"fieldtype":902,"meta_data":903,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/5e06636cf8/bm-salar-de-atacama.jpg","asset",{"alt":631,"title":631,"source":631,"copyright":631},"Simon Moores","CEO","Jan 26, 2023","26th January 2023",[],[],{"id":911,"uuid":912,"name":913,"slug":914,"full_slug":914,"content":915,"relatedArticles":919,"relatedVideos":920},120886048076734,"4b6fbcc0-7881-4fbb-92ee-06d1ed3f3cec","⚙️ Settings","settings",{"_uid":916,"component":914,"black_listed_email_domains":917,"_editable":918,"formattedDate":631,"formattedArticleDate":631},"8dcafbcc-28de-4388-a68e-6b41e24f31bb","direkt.se\nstreetwisereports.com\nalpha-sense.com\nafrica-energy.com\ntcs.com\nmm-markets.com\nsmr-premium.com\nsci99.com\nlondoncib.com\nyeb.com.br\nnewautomotive.org\nsina.com.cn\ngwstrategies.net\noliverwyman.com\ndazeinfo.com\ndataintelo.com\ninfyos.com\nevalueserve.com\ninsightwoo.com\ncrescendoanalytic.com\nipaglobal.com\nweare121.com\nzemek.com\nryancommodityinsights.com\nonyxsi.com\ncostmine.com\nnickhatchmining.com\naethoslabs.com\nmysteel.com\nbuzblox.com\nfutureproofconsulting.com.au\ncmgroup.net\noptelgroup.com\nberylls.com\nreputex.com\nnumber-three.net\nrobertdallison.com\nwsp.com\nafriforesight.com\npaydirt.com.au\nmetal.com\ninforma.com\nfelixstrategy.com\ncrisil.com\nantaike.com\nbatterymaterialsreview.com\nsrk.com\nglobaltrustgrp.com\nnapiermeridian.com\nprojectblue.com\nplutonic-rma.com\nrosaearth.io\ndrivesustainability.org\nminehub.com\nscsglobalservices.com\nLynxglobalintelligence.com\nsphera.com\nminespider.com\nc-resource.com\ntdi-sustainability.com\nkumi.consulting\nsc-insights.com\nkallanish.com\naboutenergy.co.uk\nenant.io\nopisnet.com\nacuitycommodities.com\nevinfocus.com\nsfa-oxford.com\ncrugroup.com\nwoodmac.com\nspglobal.com\nrolandberger.com\nrcsglobal.com\nnornik.ru\nlivista.energy\nihsmarkit.com\ncapitalightresearch.com\namegroup.com\ncapitalight.co\nsustainablelabs.io\ncommoditiesanalysis.co.uk\navicenne.com\nkearney.com\nnornickel.net\n5napier.com\nvoltility.net\ngf.com.cn\nhindenburgresearch.com\ndigbee.com\nadamasintel.com\nac-harvard.com\nsneresearch.com\ninventusbioenergy.com\nproactiveinvestors.com\nauroraer.com\nresourceworld.com\nbatteryline.com\norennia.com\nfastmarkets.com\nmsci.com\nbcg.com\nklinegroup.com\ndelta-ee.com\nskarnassociates.com\nricardo.com\ncleanhorizon.com\np3-group.com\naccenture.com\nporsche-consulting.com\numlaut.com\nadi-analytics.com\ncpmgroup.com\nilimarkets.com\nminviro.com\nmckinsey.com\ncicenergigune.com\ne4tech.com\nargusmedia.com\ndolbear.com\nerm.com\nlithium.org\nradiusq.com\ndigivla.com\njeri.co.jp\ntopology.com.tw\nsaurenergy.com\novaladvisory.com\ngsixenergy.com","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"settings\", \"space\": \"287943243085208\", \"uid\": \"8dcafbcc-28de-4388-a68e-6b41e24f31bb\", \"id\": \"120886048076734\"}-->",[],[],1782229522034]