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Mineral-rich countries need to be careful about race to move downstream","opinion-mineral-rich-countries-need-to-be-careful-about-race-to-move-downstream","article/opinion-mineral-rich-countries-need-to-be-careful-about-race-to-move-downstream",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":566,"content":576,"excerpt":797,"featured":51,"reporter":798,"_editable":802,"component":803,"seo_title":553,"categories":804,"visibility":810,"author_company":49,"featured_image":811,"seo_description":797,"author_full_name":816,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":817,"formattedArticleDate":818},"9da2e2a0-e839-407d-a8e4-497ed52506b3","2023-08-08 00:00",[560,563],{"slug":561,"name":562},"drc","DRC",{"slug":564,"name":565},"opinion","Opinion",[567],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":570},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":571,"image":572,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":573},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":577,"content":578},"doc",[579,596,609,614,619,624,629,636,641,646,651,656,661,666,671,676,681,694,699,704,709,714,719,724,729,734,739,744,749,754],{"type":580,"attrs":581,"content":582},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[583,586,594],{"text":584,"type":585},"Developing economies are beginning to flip the script. From ","text",{"text":587,"type":585,"marks":588},"South America ",[589],{"type":590,"attrs":591},"link",{"href":592,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":593},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/byd-builds-battery-supply-chain-in-south-america-with-chile-and-brazil-plants","url",{"text":595,"type":585},"to Asia and Africa, mineral-rich countries are no longer content with solely exporting raw material. Rather, these countries are beginning to explore avenues to capture more value from their mineral supply chains, particularly those related to electric vehicles. ",{"type":580,"attrs":597,"content":598},{"textAlign":49},[599,601,607],{"text":600,"type":585},"In South America, Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia have all adopted different approaches to retain more value from lithium. In Asia, Indonesia has attempted to use export bans to force value addition in nickel, while enacting similar but less successful mandates for copper, bauxite, and tin. And in ",{"text":602,"type":585,"marks":603},"Africa",[604],{"type":590,"attrs":605},{"href":606,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":593},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/africas-critical-mineral-production-poised-for-rapid-growth",{"text":608,"type":585},", Namibia and Zimbabwe recently prohibited the exports of raw minerals. ",{"type":580,"attrs":610,"content":611},{"textAlign":49},[612],{"text":613,"type":585},"Value addition is the new centerpiece of economic strategy for mineral-rich countries. ",{"type":580,"attrs":615,"content":616},{"textAlign":49},[617],{"text":618,"type":585},"This matters, given that developing economies dominate the upstream stage of many clean energy supply chains. ",{"type":580,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":585},"Developing economies have good reason to focus on value addition. A significant portion of projected revenue and job creation in clean energy technologies occurs further down the value chain. For instance, studies estimate that only 9% of projected revenue from the lithium ion value chain will occur in mining. ",{"type":580,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":585},"Furthermore, value addition can serve as a compelling political narrative, providing an alternative to the entrenched colonial economic models that have arguably hindered growth for many of today’s developing nations. ",{"type":630,"attrs":631,"content":633},"heading",{"level":632,"textAlign":49},4,[634],{"text":635,"type":585},"The costs and benefits of moving downstream",{"type":580,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"text":640,"type":585},"While having its merits, however, the contemporary conversation around value addition currently lacks a nuanced analysis of the limitations and benefits of moving further downstream. ",{"type":580,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":585},"Many national leaders have been reticent to assess the costs and benefits associated with pursuing value addition, showing little interest in comparing these strategies to the wider range of economic alternatives that can be pursued to achieve national priorities. ",{"type":580,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":585},"Countries can better assess value addition opportunities by beginning with a more rigorous evaluation of feasibility. There are generally two economic justifications for moving downstream: a country has major cost advantages due to cheaper inputs (arbitrage) or has a significant advantage in capabilities due to its know-how from existing economic activity (complementarities). ",{"type":580,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":585},"Without either of these factors, there is little economic rationale for value addition. For instance, a successful farmer would have few advantages to operate a Michelin star restaurant. Rather, the farmer may be better served moving horizontally into the production of other crops or livestock, thus leveraging his or her existing capabilities.  ",{"type":630,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"level":632,"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":585},"Economic cooercion",{"type":580,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":585},"Mandates are also no guarantee for successful value addition. Economic coercion can sometimes play a role in moving downstream, as demonstrated by Indonesia’s ban on nickel exports and the consequent development of its downstream domestic value chain. ",{"type":580,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":585},"However, the Indonesian case study may attest more to Indonesia’s particular context than to the efficacy of coercive mandates, with cheap coal-fired electricity, low-cost labor, proven mining assets, and proximity to China supporting Indonesia’s downstream gambit. On the other hand, countries that have indiscriminately pursued value addition have an overwhelming track record of failure. ",{"type":580,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":585},"Governments will also be well served to think explicitly about the benefits of value addition. While state revenue is an obvious benefit, other benefits such as diversification from commodity price volatility and job creation warrant attention. Most crucially, policymakers must consider how to deploy value addition in ways that develop new indigenous capabilities and create scaffolding for high-value economic possibilities in the future. ",{"type":630,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"level":632,"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":585},"The DRC’s potential ",{"type":580,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684,686,692],{"text":685,"type":585},"We recently applied this framework in ",{"text":687,"type":585,"marks":688},"a report on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s prospects for value addition",[689],{"type":590,"attrs":690},{"href":691,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":593},"https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37376063",{"text":693,"type":585},". ",{"type":580,"attrs":695,"content":696},{"textAlign":49},[697],{"text":698,"type":585},"Interestingly, our research found that manufacturing of copper products stands out as a clear opportunity for the DRC. This is not due to state revenue — copper products run tight margins and do not generate significant taxable income. But growth into copper product manufacturing would be feasible as it requires few government resources and leverages existing comparative advantages in the short-term. ",{"type":580,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":49},[702],{"text":703,"type":585},"Most importantly, it would open a stream of future manufacturing-based economic opportunities for the DRC. In other words, it would do exactly what value addition should aim to do, but what most national policies currently ignore.  ",{"type":580,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"textAlign":49},[707],{"text":708,"type":585},"Our analysis also indicated that politically attractive projects, such as mineral refining and development of battery precursors, have a shakier value proposition than commonly perceived. ",{"type":580,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"textAlign":49},[712],{"text":713,"type":585},"Mineral refining offers promising economic returns, but the DRC’s possibilities are largely constrained by the availability of reliable electricity. This means that the government’s push to grow domestic refining can only realistically take place gradually in established value chains like copper, with limited prospects for greenfield projects in minerals like lithium, tin, and zinc. ",{"type":580,"attrs":715,"content":716},{"textAlign":49},[717],{"text":718,"type":585},"Precursor production is an even more questionable aim. Producing precursors at a commercial scale would provide the DRC with revenues similar to those generated by a large mine and, contrary to popular narratives, have a small impact on job creation. ",{"type":580,"attrs":720,"content":721},{"textAlign":49},[722],{"text":723,"type":585},"Additionally, producing precursors is difficult and takes significant time and resources, as Australia is discovering. Most importantly, precursors do not provide a meaningful pathway to diversify into other products, including lithium ion batteries, which require a vastly different set of capabilities to commercially manufacture and distribute. ",{"type":630,"attrs":725,"content":726},{"level":632,"textAlign":49},[727],{"text":728,"type":585},"Pausing to consider",{"type":580,"attrs":730,"content":731},{"textAlign":49},[732],{"text":733,"type":585},"The case of the DRC is emblematic of many mineral-rich countries which are rushing headlong to determine how they can pursue value addition, rather than first asking if and where they should prioritize adding value. ",{"type":580,"attrs":735,"content":736},{"textAlign":49},[737],{"text":738,"type":585},"Given the scarce resources and competing priorities that shape economic decision making in developing nations, asking “why” and “where” is just as important, if not more important, as asking “how”.   ",{"type":580,"attrs":740,"content":741},{"textAlign":49},[742],{"text":743,"type":585},"The DRC and other mineral producers will be best served by targeting value addition in areas that leverage existing factor endowments and enable the development of future capabilities, rather than those that are most politically expedient.",{"type":580,"attrs":745,"content":746},{"textAlign":49},[747],{"text":748,"type":585},"Political rhetoric can often stymie the pursuit of sound economics. Chilean President Gabriel Boric recently claimed that lithium “is the best chance we have at transitioning to a sustainable and developed economy”, while the DRC’s Finance Minister, Nicolas Kazadi, stated that “the number of poor are still increasing. The only way to change that is to have transformation, local transformation.” ",{"type":580,"attrs":750,"content":751},{"textAlign":49},[752],{"text":753,"type":585},"But economic history tells us that there will be no silver bullets to resolve long-standing economic issues. Value addition, if harnessed properly, can help mineral producers take one step forward. Alternatively, approaching value addition indiscriminately, rather than selectively, will lead to the same dismal results that have plagued many developing economies over the better part of the last century. ",{"type":580,"attrs":755,"content":756},{"textAlign":49},[757,762,763,767,773,777,784,788,795],{"text":758,"type":585,"marks":759},"Abdurrehman Naveed and Cina Vazir are recent graduates of the Harvard Kennedy School",[760],{"type":761},"italic",{"text":693,"type":585},{"text":764,"type":585,"marks":765},"Their research on the DRC can be found ",[766],{"type":761},{"text":768,"type":585,"marks":769},"here",[770,771],{"type":761},{"type":590,"attrs":772},{"href":691,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":593},{"text":774,"type":585,"marks":775}," and they can be reached for further inquiry at ",[776],{"type":761},{"text":778,"type":585,"marks":779},"abdurrehman_naveed@hks.harvard.edu",[780,781],{"type":761},{"type":590,"attrs":782},{"href":783,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":593},"mailto:abdurrehman_naveed@hks.harvard.edu",{"text":785,"type":585,"marks":786}," and ",[787],{"type":761},{"text":789,"type":585,"marks":790},"cina_vazirzadeh@hks.harvard.edu",[791,792],{"type":761},{"type":590,"attrs":793},{"href":794,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":593},"mailto:cina_vazirzadeh@hks.harvard.edu",{"text":796,"type":585},".","Developing economies are beginning to flip the script. From South America to Asia and Africa, mineral-rich countries are no longer content with solely exporting raw material. Rather, these countries are beginning to explore avenues to capture more value from their mineral supply chains, particularly those related to electric vehicles. In South America, Argentina, Chile, and […]",[799],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":800},{"job_title":571,"image":801,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},{"filename":573},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"9da2e2a0-e839-407d-a8e4-497ed52506b3\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[805,807],{"slug":806,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":808,"name":809},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":812,"name":812,"focus":812,"title":812,"source":812,"filename":813,"copyright":812,"fieldtype":814,"meta_data":815,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/69d23274f7/bm-glencore-mutanda-copper-drc.jpg","asset",{"alt":812,"title":812,"source":812,"copyright":812},"Abdurrehman Naveed and Cina Vazir","Aug 08, 2023","8th August 2023",[],[],1792773912075]