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Why sodium ion batteries will take longer than people think","opinion-why-sodium-ion-batteries-will-take-longer-than-people-think","article/opinion-why-sodium-ion-batteries-will-take-longer-than-people-think",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":569,"content":579,"excerpt":757,"featured":51,"reporter":758,"_editable":762,"component":763,"seo_title":553,"categories":764,"visibility":771,"author_company":772,"featured_image":773,"seo_description":757,"author_full_name":779,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":780,"formattedArticleDate":781},"ed3a827e-cc03-4163-ba84-cbfc40fa747d","2023-09-07 00:00",[560,563,566],{"slug":561,"name":562},"opinion","Opinion",{"slug":564,"name":565},"sodium-ion-2","Sodium ion",{"slug":567,"name":568},"sodium-ion-batteries","Sodium Ion Batteries",[570],{"slug":571,"name":572,"content":573},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":574,"image":575,"bio":577,"linkedin":578},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":576},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":580,"content":581},"doc",[582,599,604,609,622,627,636,641,646,653,658,671,676,681,686,695,700,705,710,715,720,725,730,735,740,745],{"type":583,"attrs":584,"content":585},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[586,589,597],{"text":587,"type":588},"Ambitious nameplate capacities and media attention have heralded the sodium-ion battery","text",{"text":590,"type":588,"marks":591}," as",[592],{"type":593,"attrs":594},"link",{"href":595,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/sodium-ion-2030-pipeline-capacity-hits-150-gwh-as-cathode-trends-emerge","url",{"text":598,"type":588}," the next big thing. ",{"type":583,"attrs":600,"content":601},{"textAlign":49},[602],{"text":603,"type":588},"Sodium ion battery raw materials are abundant in nature and the first movers will have the opportunity to secure an advantageous position in the value chain.",{"type":583,"attrs":605,"content":606},{"textAlign":49},[607],{"text":608,"type":588},"China currently dominates commercial progress, and, with low- to mid-range performance electric vehicles being popular in their national market, a strong case can be made for China driving the development of sodium-ion to develop alternative supply chains and hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.",{"type":583,"attrs":610,"content":611},{"textAlign":49},[612,614,620],{"text":613,"type":588},"Furthermore, although the recent drop in ",{"text":615,"type":588,"marks":616},"lithium prices",[617],{"type":593,"attrs":618},{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/chinese-lithium-prices-more-than-halve-as-confidence-knocked-by-slowdown",{"text":621,"type":588}," has lessened the economic advantage of sodium ion, if high lithium prices return, a strong business case for sodium-ion will be rejuvenated.",{"type":583,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625],{"text":626,"type":588},"However, closer examination of the gap between announced capacity and realised production suggests there is still a long way to go.",{"type":583,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630,632,634],{"text":631,"type":588},"An environment of critical mineral uncertainty and favourably high lithium prices triggered a wave of sodium-ion capacity announcements over the past year, predominantly based in China and backed by state policy initiatives such as the 14",{"text":633,"type":588},"th",{"text":635,"type":588}," five-year plan. At the time of writing, China accounts for >95% of the 241 GWh pipeline capacity announced through to 2030.",{"type":583,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"text":640,"type":588},"However, capacity is a measure of ambition, and the truth of commercial success lies in the dissection of production and the understanding of manufacturing ramp-up timelines. Only with this data can a realistic outlook on the emerging sodium-ion market be attained and a mass market commercialisation timeline established.",{"type":583,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":588},"The natural gap between capacity and production is evident in historic lithium ion battery supply data. For next-generation technologies, like the sodium-ion battery, this gap will inevitably be worse.",{"type":647,"attrs":648,"content":650},"heading",{"level":649,"textAlign":49},4,[651],{"text":652,"type":588},"Crunching the numbers of capacity vs production",{"type":583,"attrs":654,"content":655},{"textAlign":49},[656],{"text":657,"type":588},"Of the 10.4 GWh of sodium ion capacity expected to be installed by the end of 2023, Benchmark forecasts a utilisation rate of just 24%, representative of 2.5 GWh of production. ",{"type":583,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"textAlign":49},[661,663,669],{"text":662,"type":588},"The majority of this production is associated with Tier 1 cell producers (i.e. ",{"text":664,"type":588,"marks":665},"CATL, BYD",[666],{"type":593,"attrs":667},{"href":668,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/chinas-lithium-ion-incumbents-back-sodium-batteries-as-byd-makes-move-into-space",{"text":670,"type":588},", Farasis), defined here as a well-established lithium ion battery manufacturer, a key metric of Benchmark’s new sodium-ion tiering system.",{"type":583,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":588},"In 2024, a step-increase in sodium ion capacity is projected, with an additional 63 GWh of capacity set to come online. However, 67% of this is attributed to inexperienced market participants with limited battery manufacturing expertise – ranked as Tier 2 or 3 sodium-ion cell producers.",{"type":583,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":588},"It is unrealistic to assume that inexperienced producers will achieve production efficiency anywhere close to that of the established lithium ion battery industry, or a Tier 1 producer, in the short-term. This renders more than half of the announced capacity speculative at best, dispelling the notion of mass market sodium-ion production in 2023 or 2024.",{"type":583,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":588},"Instead, sodium ion should be considered near-term next-generation.",{"type":583,"attrs":687,"content":688},{"textAlign":49},[689],{"type":690,"attrs":691},"image",{"id":49,"alt":692,"src":693,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":694},"A graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of\n\nDescription automatically generated","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Ef1BwynaqsUYFPxBdMARWJmt9s8lAsfbLgll5z_b7BgaM0TIa_HyWfe4X__IrYeT0ywNfxgaO4xFsd6fdcO_mgvlSh34gx2B8CH55CNs4BZu1IDBsrqzT1zrHJIa_TWpIHKBtF49r13qSFp8Fkbvsw",{},{"type":647,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"level":649,"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":588},"Everyone wants to be first ",{"type":583,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":588},"Cell producers in China are in a race to be the ‘first to mass produce’ sodium ion batteries, which is reflected in their ambitious capacity expansion plans. ",{"type":583,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"text":709,"type":588},"However, Benchmark projects that even the utilisation rate of Tier 1 producers will be slow to ramp-up compared to the timelines of traditional lithium ion manufacturing, as a result of technical and supply chain challenges.",{"type":583,"attrs":711,"content":712},{"textAlign":49},[713],{"text":714,"type":588},"With this in mind, Benchmark’s base-case and high case sodium-ion supply scenarios forecast cell production to exceed 50 GWh by 2027 and 2028, respectively. Where do you draw the line for ‘mass market commercialisation’?",{"type":583,"attrs":716,"content":717},{"textAlign":49},[718],{"text":719,"type":588},"Consistent with the dawn of the lithium ion battery industry, the rest of the world outside China has been slow to act, with tentative sodium-ion capacity announcements accounting for \u003C5% of pipeline capacity. Although a more risk-averse appetite is present in these markets, proof and validation of the chemistry could awaken investment.",{"type":583,"attrs":721,"content":722},{"textAlign":49},[723],{"text":724,"type":588},"Until then, market expansion, growth, and maturation will be largely dominated by Chinese timelines.",{"type":647,"attrs":726,"content":727},{"level":649,"textAlign":49},[728],{"text":729,"type":588},"Mass production yet to come",{"type":583,"attrs":731,"content":732},{"textAlign":49},[733],{"text":734,"type":588},"It’s easy to get caught in the hype of capacity announcements and overlook the next-generation nature of the sodium ion battery. As we have seen with the lithium ion battery, optimising technology, scaling manufacturing, and delivering mass market batteries takes time.",{"type":583,"attrs":736,"content":737},{"textAlign":49},[738],{"text":739,"type":588},"Whether geopolitical tensions, supply chain nationalisation, or a competitive price environment will win out as the driving force for sodium ion battery development is yet to be determined. ",{"type":583,"attrs":741,"content":742},{"textAlign":49},[743],{"text":744,"type":588},"But it is possible that China will act regardless, to secure an advantageous position in the sodium ion value chain, or that the rest of the world will see this as an opportunity to level the playing field – if progress is sufficient to attract serious investment.",{"type":583,"attrs":746,"content":747},{"textAlign":49},[748,750,755],{"text":749,"type":588},"Lithium-ion giants, including ",{"text":751,"type":588,"marks":752},"CATL and BYD",[753],{"type":593,"attrs":754},{"href":668,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},{"text":756,"type":588},", are leading the charge, inspiring an ambitious sodium ion capacity pipeline. However, the challenges of maturing a next-generation battery technology and supply chain, especially through the lens of inexperienced cell producers, paint the picture that mass production won’t be achieved for several years.","Ambitious nameplate capacities and media attention have heralded the sodium-ion battery as the next big thing. Sodium ion battery raw materials are abundant in nature and the first movers will have the opportunity to secure an advantageous position in the value chain. China currently dominates commercial progress, and, with low- to mid-range performance electric vehicles […]",[759],{"slug":571,"name":572,"content":760},{"job_title":574,"image":761,"bio":577,"linkedin":578},{"filename":576},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"ed3a827e-cc03-4163-ba84-cbfc40fa747d\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[765,768],{"slug":766,"name":767},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":769,"name":770},"battery-technology","Battery Technology","private","Benchmark Mineral Intelligence",{"id":49,"alt":774,"name":775,"focus":775,"title":774,"source":775,"filename":776,"copyright":775,"fieldtype":777,"meta_data":778,"is_external_url":51},"Sodium ion battery cells on a pile of salt","","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/4a0baef41b/bm-sodium-ion-batteries.jpg","asset",{"alt":774,"title":774,"source":775,"copyright":775},"Rory McNulty and Ethan Williams ","Sep 07, 2023","7th September 2023",[],[],1789141533780]