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Will Chinese EVs break into Western markets?","opinion-will-chinese-evs-break-into-western-markets","article/opinion-will-chinese-evs-break-into-western-markets",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":566,"content":576,"excerpt":808,"featured":50,"reporter":809,"_editable":813,"component":814,"seo_title":553,"categories":815,"visibility":822,"author_company":823,"featured_image":824,"seo_description":808,"author_full_name":829,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":830,"formattedArticleDate":831},"01e1da56-6186-43f6-99e8-92e0ef160bb6","2023-02-27 00:00",[560,563],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",{"slug":564,"name":565},"opinion","Opinion",[567],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":570},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":571,"image":572,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":573},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":577,"content":578},"doc",[579,586,591,603,608,623,628,635,640,645,650,655,660,665,670,675,680,685,690,695,700,705,710,721,744,749,754,767,778,783,788,793,798,803],{"type":580,"attrs":581,"content":582},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":585},"As the EV race gathers pace we are confronted by a key question: can anyone now rival the Chinese, or have they already ‘won’?","text",{"type":580,"attrs":587,"content":588},{"textAlign":49},[589],{"text":590,"type":585},"Many have declared the ‘race’ already finished, with the Chinese victorious. But the global ‘EV race’ (if that is the most appropriate analogy in the first place) is going to be more of a long-distance cross-terrain run, not a sprint, with many obstacles along the way. ",{"type":580,"attrs":592,"content":593},{"textAlign":49},[594,596,601],{"text":595,"type":585},"Indeed, from that perspective a competitor sprinting too soon could easily be overtaken at a later stage; and it’s not even guaranteed that ",{"text":597,"type":585,"marks":598},"anyone",[599],{"type":600},"italic",{"text":602,"type":585}," will reach the ‘finish line.’",{"type":580,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":585},"This long, winding and unpredictable road poses a particular challenge for Chinese EVs, which are seemingly out front of the pack (with the notable exception of Tesla).  ",{"type":580,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611,613,621],{"text":612,"type":585},"Specifically, one key hurdle they face in any conceivable route to global domination of the emerging EV sector is breaking into established ",{"text":614,"type":585,"marks":615},"‘rich world’ markets",[616],{"type":617,"attrs":618},"link",{"href":619,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":620},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/chinese-battery-makers-bet-on-europes-ev-market","url",{"text":622,"type":585}," and then achieving acceptable mass market status there.",{"type":580,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":585},"Not because sales overseas are limited anymore to these markets. But because they still overwhelmingly dominate growing global markets for EVs. And because they are the home markets of the most potent competitors to China’s EV sector, from established auto majors in particular, who are not about to give up and are really only just beginning to give the EV serious attention.",{"type":629,"attrs":630,"content":632},"heading",{"level":631,"textAlign":49},4,[633],{"text":634,"type":585},"The Chinese EV wave will be different",{"type":580,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":585},"Some frame this question in terms of the comparison with the Koreans (in the 90s) and the Japanese (in the 70s/80s) breaking into Western car markets with undeniable success. But there are some key differences:",{"type":580,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":585},"(1)   Japan and Korea’s successful breakthroughs were at a moment of ascendant globalisation and retreating (technological) nationalism, whereas today we are in precisely the opposite situation: retreating globalisation and insurgent (techno-)nationalism and geopolitical tension",{"type":580,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":585},"(2)   Japan and Korea were also both demonstrably and foundationally within the same geopolitical camp as Western markets; whereas China is just as obviously not, and increasingly so with each crescendo of ‘new Cold War’ rhetoric",{"type":580,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":585},"(3)   The technological, infrastructural and social aspects of the two are also entirely different. The ICE car being introduced by the Koreans/Japanese was an already-established part of post-war Western life, with the infrastructures already largely in place. ",{"type":580,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":585},"It was also in itself a largely settled technological assemblage, with the nature and meaning of the ‘car’ in place and with the Koreans/Japanese just changing details (e.g. the size of the vehicles and their fuel efficiency vs. American cars of the 1950s/60s). By contrast, none of this holds for the EV. ",{"type":629,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"level":631,"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":585},"From a car to a computer on wheels",{"type":580,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":585},"For EVs the infrastructure is still embryonic. How EVs fit into and change established patterns and demands of mobility is still unclear as the EV itself remains an evolving technology.  ",{"type":580,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":585},"In particular, it is increasingly not primarily a ‘car’ with an electric drivetrain, but a ‘computer’ that can physically move people and stuff. And we have only just begun to reckon with what a profound transformation that means. ",{"type":580,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":585},"Digital technology is also the frontline of the most intense geopolitical rivalry between West and China, which is likely to last at least for the medium-term.",{"type":580,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":585},"So what happens if we include these profound shifts in context into our analysis of Chinese EVs entering Western markets? ",{"type":629,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"level":631,"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":585},"Shifting perceptions of Chinese EVs",{"type":580,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":585},"A Master’s project conducted by a Taiwanese student, Chen Hung-Chi, under my supervision sheds some light.  ",{"type":580,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":585},"In the summer of 2022, she surveyed European/UK, US, Chinese and Taiwanese publics on attitudes to EV purchasing decisions, and how they are changed once issues of techno-nationalism have been noted, including the perhaps surprising domicile of corporate ownership of certain brands (e.g. MG or Volvo who are now Chinese-owned brands).",{"type":580,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":585},"Interestingly Chen’s research found the Western car-buying public largely unbothered at present about in which country the corporate ownership of an EV brand is based. ",{"type":580,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"text":709,"type":585},"By contrast, though, amongst Chinese respondents, there was a marked techno-nationalism in response. In particular, once such issues of geopolitical contestation and the ownership of brands were raised, Chinese responses showed a significant change in relative or ranked preferences, not observable amongst Western respondents.",{"type":580,"attrs":711,"content":712},{"textAlign":49},[713,715,719],{"text":714,"type":585},"The Chinese respondents also shifted away from non-Chinese (e.g. Korean, US or European) brands ",{"text":716,"type":585,"marks":717},"not",[718],{"type":600},{"text":720,"type":585}," towards familiar and obviously Chinese brands, like BYD – which they continued to rank relatively low – but specifically towards foreign (largely European) brands owned by Chinese companies.",{"type":580,"attrs":722,"content":723},{"textAlign":49},[724,726,730,732,736,738,742],{"text":725,"type":585},"This suggests a clear ",{"text":727,"type":585,"marks":728},"expressed ",[729],{"type":600},{"text":731,"type":585},"preference amongst Chinese would-be EV buyers for Chinese-",{"text":733,"type":585,"marks":734},"owned",[735],{"type":600},{"text":737,"type":585}," but European-",{"text":739,"type":585,"marks":740},"branded",[741],{"type":600},{"text":743,"type":585}," products; resonating with longstanding preferences revealed in actual Chinese vehicle market sales. ",{"type":580,"attrs":745,"content":746},{"textAlign":49},[747],{"text":748,"type":585},"A sense here then of Chinese consumers seeking to ‘have their cake and eat it’ – supporting Chinese techno-nationalist ambitions while still availing themselves of (what they still presume is) superior quality from ‘foreign’ technology.",{"type":629,"attrs":750,"content":751},{"level":631,"textAlign":49},[752],{"text":753,"type":585},"Geopolitical rivalry",{"type":580,"attrs":755,"content":756},{"textAlign":49},[757,759,765],{"text":758,"type":585},"We see clear evidence that the EV is beginning to become pulled into ",{"text":760,"type":585,"marks":761},"geopolitical rivalry",[762],{"type":617,"attrs":763},{"href":764,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":620},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/infographic-chinas-lithium-ion-battery-supply-chain-dominance",{"text":766,"type":585},", and even in the minds of (highly pragmatic, cost-conscious) would-be consumers/buyers in both China and the West. ",{"type":580,"attrs":768,"content":769},{"textAlign":49},[770,772,776],{"text":771,"type":585},"And while this currently seems more marked in the former, this may well just reflect the different conditions: for instance, on the one hand, the heightened and ubiquitous exposure to a drumbeat of techno-nationalism in China, given its much more centrally-controlled public messaging and media; and, on the other, the comparative ",{"text":773,"type":585,"marks":774},"lack",[775],{"type":600},{"text":777,"type":585}," of geopolitical sensitivity of Western consumers, presuming they will always have access to the ‘best’ goods and technologies after a generation of globalization centred on their markets. ",{"type":580,"attrs":779,"content":780},{"textAlign":49},[781],{"text":782,"type":585},"However, there is no reason in principle to believe a major and sudden shift in the same direction is not also possible in Western opinion given appropriate circumstances arising from the very same geopolitical context: for instance, if Beijing were actually to attack Taiwan. ",{"type":580,"attrs":784,"content":785},{"textAlign":49},[786],{"text":787,"type":585},"The Chinese ownership of MG and Volvo, for instance, would surely then be thrust into the public eye. We have already seen protests outside the Manchester consulate, leading to a high-profile clash, so why not pickets outside MG dealerships in such a scenario? ",{"type":580,"attrs":789,"content":790},{"textAlign":49},[791],{"text":792,"type":585},"So far, though, this shift in preferences is not yet an ascendant mainstream perspective; and even where it does happen, it may well not simply take the form of a revitalised nationalist chauvinism typical up to the ‘70s and ‘80s regarding vehicle purchases (i.e. with the French buying French cars.)",{"type":580,"attrs":794,"content":795},{"textAlign":49},[796],{"text":797,"type":585},"It is something new, reflecting the complex cross-country, globalised nature of the EV auto sector that has taken shape over the past 40 years. ",{"type":580,"attrs":799,"content":800},{"textAlign":49},[801],{"text":802,"type":585},"Indeed, it is surely clear that the very difficulty of seamlessly decoupling into purely ‘Chinese’ and ‘Western’ auto/EV markets would feed significantly back into how any such tensions actually then play out.",{"type":580,"attrs":804,"content":805},{"textAlign":49},[806],{"text":807,"type":585},"In short, rather than just tracking the numbers of Chinese-owned EVs selling in Europe, then, we need some triangulation to sense how the wind is blowing over the medium-term, as this complex and unprecedented scenario plays out.","As the EV race gathers pace we are confronted by a key question: can anyone now rival the Chinese, or have they already ‘won’? Many have declared the ‘race’ already finished, with the Chinese victorious. But the global ‘EV race’ (if that is the most appropriate analogy in the first place) is going to be more […]",[810],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":811},{"job_title":571,"image":812,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},{"filename":573},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"01e1da56-6186-43f6-99e8-92e0ef160bb6\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[816,819],{"slug":817,"name":818},"ev","EV",{"slug":820,"name":821},"geopolitics","Geopolitics","private","Lancaster University",{"id":49,"alt":825,"name":825,"focus":825,"title":825,"source":825,"filename":826,"copyright":825,"fieldtype":827,"meta_data":828,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/458626a429/bm-xpeng-in-europe.jpg","asset",{"alt":825,"title":825,"source":825,"copyright":825},"David Tyfield","Feb 27, 2023","27th February 2023",[],[],1792773918786]