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acid deficit widens amid higher demand and slow supply response","phosphoric-acid-deficit-widens-amid-higher-demand-and-slow-supply-response","article/phosphoric-acid-deficit-widens-amid-higher-demand-and-slow-supply-response",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":574,"content":584,"excerpt":740,"featured":51,"reporter":741,"_editable":745,"component":746,"seo_title":553,"categories":747,"visibility":754,"author_company":49,"featured_image":755,"seo_description":740,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":760,"formattedArticleDate":761},"a50f2307-52b0-4dec-88b9-4a0e21626de7","2024-05-14 00:00",[560,563,566,569,571],{"slug":561,"name":562},"china","China",{"slug":564,"name":565},"european-union","European Union",{"slug":567,"name":568},"phosphoric-acid","Phosphoric Acid",{"slug":570,"name":570},"supply",{"slug":572,"name":573},"us","US",[575],{"slug":576,"name":577,"content":578},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":579,"image":580,"bio":582,"linkedin":583},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":581},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":585,"content":586},"doc",[587,604,609,614,619,624,629,638,645,650,655,660,665,670,675,680,685,690,695,700,705,710,715,720,725,730,735],{"type":588,"attrs":589,"content":590},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[591,594,602],{"text":592,"type":593},"Delays to extra supply and a revised demand profile have increased the market deficit for phosphoric acid by 0.2 million tonnes (Mt) to 0.9 Mt in 2030, according to Benchmark’s ","text",{"text":595,"type":593,"marks":596},"Phosphoric Acid Market Outlook",[597],{"type":598,"attrs":599},"link",{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":601},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/phosphate/reports/","url",{"text":603,"type":593},".",{"type":588,"attrs":605,"content":606},{"textAlign":49},[607],{"text":608,"type":593},"Phosphoric acid goes into the cathodes of lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) batteries. ",{"type":588,"attrs":610,"content":611},{"textAlign":49},[612],{"text":613,"type":593},"Growing demand, under-investment in phosphoric acid refining, and geopolitical red lines on sourcing means these chemistries are at risk of raw material shortfalls.",{"type":588,"attrs":615,"content":616},{"textAlign":49},[617],{"text":618,"type":593},"Currently, phosphoric acid producers have been plugging technical deficits lasting from at least 2018 by drawing on stockpiles. ",{"type":588,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":593},"However, destocking will not be enough to alleviate the deficit come 2030, according to Maximilian Court, Benchmark Product Director.",{"type":588,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":593},"“The deficit emerging is structural so even if you plug it with stocks in one year it will open further. We can debate the timing of when the technical deficit becomes a real shortfall but, given our forecasts, 2030’s deficit in particular looks unable to be plugged with stocks,” he said.",{"type":588,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"type":633,"attrs":634},"image",{"id":49,"alt":635,"src":636,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":637},"","https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/KLr-ZcJY67C6CGzjeupRPXe64Z9ebDR6Jnh4KhDxzN7U8jFgyeLJq2P-fIt7ukV5COdXskbMVOJWcExz7WXv-HRkEeKwJpY5Ovss0GGUMkUzj9qJWfsqnfp0Z5XzCJbY8Wrd55NMpLlpvG1C9YswSWM",{},{"type":639,"attrs":640,"content":642},"heading",{"level":641,"textAlign":49},4,[643],{"text":644,"type":593},"Lagging supply widens deficit",{"type":588,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":593},"Lagging supply was the main factor driving Benchmark’s upward revision of its global phosphoric acid deficit. ",{"type":588,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":593},"This was partly due to slower-than-expected progress at First Phosphate’s new site in Quebec, Canada making it less likely to bring tonnes to market by 2030.",{"type":588,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":593},"Refining capacity is the primary bottleneck for phosphoric acid as batteries require phosphoric acid of food grade standard.",{"type":588,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":593},"“The medium and long term depend on possible PPA projects reaching the market on top of operating and committed plants producing at nameplate capacity,” said Benchmark analyst Rania Benjelloun Benkacem. ",{"type":588,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":593},"That being said, some additional rock phosphate mining will also be needed to keep up with any expanded battery-grade phosphoric acid capacity.",{"type":588,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":593},"“Extra phosphoric acid investment will entail extra mining tonnes to be delivered to market. This is because incumbent tonnage is focused on supplying the fertiliser market, which is not expected to shrink while battery demand grows,” said Court. ",{"type":639,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"level":641,"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":593},"Battery demand on the rise",{"type":588,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":593},"Slightly stronger demand for phosphoric acid from the auto sector was also behind the widened deficit.",{"type":588,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":593},"Auto sector demand for phosphoric acid is expected to rise from 5% currently to 23% by 2030, a percentage point up from previous quarter projections. ",{"type":588,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":593},"This reflects growing interest in LFP batteries among automakers targeting the affordable EV market. LFP is set to be 45% of total cell demand by 2030.",{"type":639,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"level":641,"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":593},"Import-dependence ahead for US and EU",{"type":588,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":593},"Supply risks will differ regionally, with the EU and US battery industries facing greater shortfalls and import reliance.",{"type":588,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"text":709,"type":593},"In China, phosphoric acid capacity is expected to rise one and a half times between 2023 and 2033. This is comfortably above its domestic LFP capacity growth, set to increase just four times over the period, meaning it will continue being self-sufficient in the chemical. ",{"type":588,"attrs":711,"content":712},{"textAlign":49},[713],{"text":714,"type":593},"By contrast, Western LFP demand growth for phosphoric acid is set to outstrip regional supply.",{"type":588,"attrs":716,"content":717},{"textAlign":49},[718],{"text":719,"type":593},"North American capacity is set to increase 37 times over the period while its phosphoric acid capacity is only expected to double.",{"type":588,"attrs":721,"content":722},{"textAlign":49},[723],{"text":724,"type":593},"Another constraint on battery-grade phosphoric acid supply for the US will be the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).",{"type":588,"attrs":726,"content":727},{"textAlign":49},[728],{"text":729,"type":593},"Under the act, EVs sold on the US market that use battery components from suppliers associated with Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOCs) will not be eligible for tax credits. This includes top phosphoric acid producer China.",{"type":588,"attrs":731,"content":732},{"textAlign":49},[733],{"text":734,"type":593},"The EU faces a similar regional shortfall. Benchmark forecasts European phosphoric acid capacity will remain flat even as regional LFP capacity grows 25 times between 2023 and 2030. ",{"type":588,"attrs":736,"content":737},{"textAlign":49},[738],{"text":739,"type":593},"Given this outlook, the EU and US LFP industries will likely lean heavily on free trade partner Morocco, set to hold 5% of global capacity in 2030, as well as continued imports from China.","Delays to extra supply and a revised demand profile have increased the market deficit for phosphoric acid by 0.2 million tonnes (Mt) to 0.9 Mt in 2030, according to Benchmark’s Phosphoric Acid Market Outlook. Phosphoric acid goes into the cathodes of lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) batteries. Growing demand, under-investment […]",[742],{"slug":576,"name":577,"content":743},{"job_title":579,"image":744,"bio":582,"linkedin":583},{"filename":581},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"a50f2307-52b0-4dec-88b9-4a0e21626de7\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[748,751],{"slug":749,"name":750},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":752,"name":753},"phosphate","Phosphate","private",{"id":49,"alt":756,"name":635,"focus":635,"title":756,"source":635,"filename":757,"copyright":635,"fieldtype":758,"meta_data":759,"is_external_url":51},"Phosphate mine.","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/2f4c9c7f70/bm-phosphate-mine.jpg","asset",{"alt":756,"title":756,"source":635,"copyright":635},"May 14, 2024","14th May 2024",[],[],1792688574535]