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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":777,"relatedVideos":778},112398932791977,"0b10bf7e-4b8d-4f9a-9d9c-46a9945d2feb","Q3 lithium preview: Jiangxi enforcement shows teeth, lifting price floor","q3-lithium-preview-jiangxi-enforcement-shows-teeth-lifting-price-floor","article/q3-lithium-preview-jiangxi-enforcement-shows-teeth-lifting-price-floor",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":562,"content":572,"excerpt":756,"featured":51,"reporter":757,"_editable":761,"component":762,"seo_title":543,"categories":763,"visibility":769,"author_company":49,"featured_image":770,"seo_description":756,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":775,"formattedArticleDate":776},"2e067da6-6765-4cbd-9dcf-96878a86086f","2025-09-02 00:00",[550,553,556,559],{"slug":551,"name":552},"benchmark-mineral-intelligence","Benchmark Mineral Intelligence",{"slug":554,"name":555},"catl","CATL",{"slug":557,"name":558},"china","China",{"slug":560,"name":561},"lithium-prices","Lithium prices",[563],{"slug":564,"name":565,"content":566},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":567,"image":568,"bio":570,"linkedin":571},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":569},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":573,"content":574},"doc",[575,592,597,604,609,614,619,624,636,641,646,651,656,661,666,679,684,689,694,699,704],{"type":576,"attrs":577,"content":578},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[579,582,590],{"text":580,"type":581},"Paperwork problems have left two of ","text",{"text":583,"type":581,"marks":584},"Jiangxi’s largest lithium mines ",[585],{"type":586,"attrs":587},"link",{"href":588,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":589},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/catl-suspends-operations-at-jianxiawo-mine-as-permit-expires","url",{"text":591,"type":581},"facing prolonged suspension risk. The picture appears to be less of a blanket clampdown and more a story of bureaucratic delays, policy philosophy, and fiscal adjustments. Yet the effect on global pricing is the same: lithium’s floor raises, allowing prices to remain higher for longer.",{"type":576,"attrs":593,"content":594},{"textAlign":49},[595],{"text":596,"type":581},"Ahead of the release of Benchmark’s Q3 lithium forecast in the coming weeks, the Benchmark analyst team sets out the base-case view guiding its work: CATL and Jiuling stand out as having the highest-risk operations, with potential suspensions large enough to shape sentiment well into 2026.",{"type":598,"attrs":599,"content":601},"heading",{"level":600,"textAlign":49},4,[602],{"text":603,"type":581},"At high risk: CATL’s Jianxiawo and Jiuling’s Huaqiao Dagang",{"type":576,"attrs":605,"content":606},{"textAlign":49},[607],{"text":608,"type":581},"Two operations dominate Jiangxi’s risk map:",{"type":576,"attrs":610,"content":611},{"textAlign":49},[612],{"text":613,"type":581},"These assets stand in contrast to the rest of Jiangxi’s miners and converters, which appear far less exposed. Treating the whole province as uniformly at risk therefore misreads the situation.",{"type":598,"attrs":615,"content":616},{"level":600,"textAlign":49},[617],{"text":618,"type":581},"New rules with sharper powers",{"type":576,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":581},"The backdrop is China’s most significant overhaul of mineral management rules in 15 years. Adopted on 8 November 2024, and effective from 1 July 2025, the amendments are the first since 2009 (and prior to that, 1996).",{"type":576,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627,629,634],{"text":628,"type":581},"The legislation introduces a new chapter on ",{"text":630,"type":581,"marks":631},"Supervision and Administration",[632],{"type":633},"italic",{"text":635,"type":581},", equipping the National Natural Resources Inspectorate with powers to carry out inspections, enforce seizure or detention orders, and block operations pending compliance. For the first time, inspections are backed by enforcement authority rather than advisory oversight.",{"type":576,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"text":640,"type":581},"Another crucial shift is that lithium was further included in the catalog of 36 strategic minerals. The approval process for mining permits has received additional clarifications following amendments to previously obscured sections. For years in Jiangxi, lithium has often been accounted for as a “by-product,” even though it is the main source of project revenues. This “under-classification” has allowed companies to pay lower taxes and royalties than warranted, depriving the state of fiscal returns. The tightened framework reflects Beijing’s intent to close that gap through stricter reporting and higher scrutiny.",{"type":576,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":581},"By contrast, in Qinghai lithium genuinely remains secondary to potash, which is the revenue driver in local brine operations. There, the by-product classification is more defensible — and explains why lithium producers in Qinghai are not facing the same level of regulatory challenge as Jiangxi operators.",{"type":576,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":581},"Transparency is also shifting. Between 2011 and 2023, reserve disclosure lists spanned 44–48 minerals, including lithium. From 2024 onward the official list contracts to 27 — excluding lithium. At precisely the moment scrutiny increases, visibility into official reporting declines, raising reliance on independent or asset-specific disclosure.",{"type":576,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":581},"One date will determine outcomes: 30 September 2025. Lithium miners are required to resubmit resource, reserve, and grade assessment reports in order to comply. Each project risks suspension until approvals clear, but not all risks are equal. Benchmark’s Q3 lithium forecast report will outline risks on each of the 8 mines affected by this crackdown. ",{"type":598,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"level":600,"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":581},"Production impact",{"type":576,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":581},"Jiangxi’s track record provides some buffer. Its mines traditionally front-load production into the first half of the year. ",{"type":576,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669,671,677],{"text":670,"type":581},"Inventories provide another buffer, as noted in ",{"text":672,"type":581,"marks":673},"12th August Critical Insight",[674],{"type":586,"attrs":675},{"href":676,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":589},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium/market-insights/critical-insights",{"text":678,"type":581},", however this new information indicates that shutdowns will outlast inventory drawdown, at least for CATL.",{"type":576,"attrs":680,"content":681},{"textAlign":49},[682],{"text":683,"type":581},"In Qinghai, Zangge has already indicated that temporary halts will not change its annual capacity guidance. This suggests full-year volumes from Jiangxi may ultimately prove more resilient than currently priced. But the market reacts not just to volumes — it reacts to fragility, visibility, and confidence.",{"type":598,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"level":600,"textAlign":49},[687],{"text":688,"type":581},"A higher-for-longer outcome",{"type":576,"attrs":690,"content":691},{"textAlign":49},[692],{"text":693,"type":581},"The disruptions in Jiangxi will be measured not only in tonnes, but in the pricing premium that uncertainty now commands.",{"type":576,"attrs":695,"content":696},{"textAlign":49},[697],{"text":698,"type":581},"Even if CATL and Jiuling resolve filings within months, large volumes have already been flagged as at risk; including other projects to be discussed in the Q3 forecast. Combined with reduced data transparency, sharper enforcement powers, and lithium’s more strategic classification, the market has formed a new view of Chinese supply: administratively vulnerable, harder to track, and more exposed to state intervention.",{"type":576,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":49},[702],{"text":703,"type":581},"The reputational shift is already embedded. We therefore expect lithium’s price floor to be raised, allowing prices to remain higher for longer through 2025, with moderation coming only slowly in H2, and an uncertainty premium carrying into 2026.",{"type":576,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"textAlign":49},[707,712,720,725,733,738,743,751],{"text":708,"type":581,"marks":709},"Benchmark’s world-leading lithium market intelligence offering includes:",[710,711],{"type":633},{"type":633},{"text":713,"type":581,"marks":714},"Lithium Price Assessment ",[715,718,719],{"type":586,"attrs":716},{"href":717,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":589},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium/lithium-prices/table/",{"type":633},{"type":633},{"text":721,"type":581,"marks":722},"publishing lithium prices on weekly and bi-weekly cycles to the industry’s most rigorous IOSCO standard, to enable supply contract settlement, indexation and price risk management.",[723,724],{"type":633},{"type":633},{"text":726,"type":581,"marks":727},"Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast",[728,731,732],{"type":586,"attrs":729},{"href":730,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":589},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium/data-reports/forecast/",{"type":633},{"type":633},{"text":734,"type":581,"marks":735}," providing a detailed outlook of lithium supply, demand, costs and prices to 2040.",[736,737],{"type":633},{"type":633},{"text":739,"type":581,"marks":740},"To learn more, please provide your details ",[741,742],{"type":633},{"type":633},{"text":744,"type":581,"marks":745},"here",[746,749,750],{"type":586,"attrs":747},{"href":748,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":589},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/contact/",{"type":633},{"type":633},{"text":752,"type":581,"marks":753},", and our experts will contact you shortly.",[754,755],{"type":633},{"type":633},"Paperwork problems have left two of Jiangxi’s largest lithium mines facing prolonged suspension risk. The picture appears to be less of a blanket clampdown and more a story of bureaucratic delays, policy philosophy, and fiscal adjustments. Yet the effect on global pricing is the same: lithium’s floor raises, allowing prices to remain higher for longer. […]",[758],{"slug":564,"name":565,"content":759},{"job_title":567,"image":760,"bio":570,"linkedin":571},{"filename":569},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"2e067da6-6765-4cbd-9dcf-96878a86086f\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[764,767],{"slug":765,"name":766},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":768,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":49,"alt":771,"name":771,"focus":771,"title":771,"source":771,"filename":772,"copyright":771,"fieldtype":773,"meta_data":774,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/ab03882337/bm-large-yellow-machinery-crushing-spodumene-ore-in-a-lithium-mine.jpg","asset",{"alt":771,"title":771,"source":771,"copyright":771},"Sep 02, 2025","2nd September 2025",[],[],1783010317967]