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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":797,"relatedVideos":798},112470109828810,"90c7a88d-5e77-4f91-b036-fd7b2e32071a","Rare earths supply to be strong in 2024 but Myanmar risk remains","rare-earths-supply-to-be-strong-in-2024-but-myanmar-risk-remains","article/rare-earths-supply-to-be-strong-in-2024-but-myanmar-risk-remains",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":559,"content":569,"excerpt":773,"featured":51,"reporter":774,"_editable":778,"component":779,"seo_title":543,"categories":780,"visibility":789,"author_company":49,"featured_image":790,"seo_description":773,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":795,"formattedArticleDate":796},"f21b1533-39be-4e8b-8ae7-6a6e65b7a536","2024-02-02 00:00",[550,553,556],{"slug":551,"name":552},"china","China",{"slug":554,"name":555},"myanmar","Myanmar",{"slug":557,"name":558},"usa","USA",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":563},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":564,"image":565,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":566},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":570,"content":571},"doc",[572,579,584,589,604,609,614,619,628,633,638,645,650,662,667,672,677,682,687,692,697,702,707,712,717,722,727,732,737,748,753,758,763,768],{"type":573,"attrs":574,"content":575},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[576],{"text":577,"type":578},"Supply will be key to understanding the rare earths market in 2024 when global production is set to increase amidst persistent low demand.","text",{"type":573,"attrs":580,"content":581},{"textAlign":49},[582],{"text":583,"type":578},"Rare earths demand is primarily driven by their use in high-strength rare earth permanent magnets (REPMs) found inside wind turbines, electric vehicle (EV) motors, and certain defence technologies. ",{"type":573,"attrs":585,"content":586},{"textAlign":49},[587],{"text":588,"type":578},"“The outlook for 2024 is one of a well supplied market,” said Daan de Jonge, product director at Benchmark. “We’re expecting Chinese output to remain high with supply growth from non-China sources as well. This will likely lead to price stability at low levels for praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd).” ",{"type":573,"attrs":590,"content":591},{"textAlign":49},[592,594,602],{"text":593,"type":578},"One new ex-China source will be Lynas’ expansion at Mount Weld mine in Western Australia, forecast to contribute 3.1% of global mined PrNd supply in 2024, according to ",{"text":595,"type":578,"marks":596},"Benchmark’s Rare Earths Forecast",[597],{"type":598,"attrs":599},"link",{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":601},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/rare-earths/reports/","url",{"text":603,"type":578},".",{"type":573,"attrs":605,"content":606},{"textAlign":49},[607],{"text":608,"type":578},"The picture differs for the more volatile heavy rare earths like dysprosium, however.",{"type":573,"attrs":610,"content":611},{"textAlign":49},[612],{"text":613,"type":578},"“We are expecting continued uncertainty around heavy rare earths prices due to this market’s reliance on Myanmar, whose output is variable and uncertain,” said de Jonge.",{"type":573,"attrs":615,"content":616},{"textAlign":49},[617],{"text":618,"type":578},"The other new mine this year is Brazil’s Pela Ema, owned by Serra Verde. As the first commercial-scale ionic clay deposit outside Myanmar and China, it could bring some relief to what has been a disrupted dysprosium market.",{"type":573,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"type":623,"attrs":624},"image",{"id":49,"alt":625,"src":626,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":627},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/0f13559337/bm-rareearthsupply2024-1.png",{},{"type":573,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"textAlign":49},[631],{"text":632,"type":578},"However, new ex-China mines will not automatically translate into more sourcing options for the West. China’s processing dominance means it is still the prime destination for ores while its domestic production quotas will also remain the biggest determinant of prices.",{"type":573,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"textAlign":49},[636],{"text":637,"type":578},"“We are expecting continuous capacity growth outside of China but global prices will continue to be below incentive for the West,” said de Jonge.",{"type":639,"attrs":640,"content":642},"heading",{"level":641,"textAlign":49},4,[643],{"text":644,"type":578},"Market braces for further price drops",{"type":573,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":578},"The Chinese government has raised its light rare earths production quota year-on-year since 2020 onwards to achieve what it calls ‘rational’ rare earths prices: high enough to profit Chinese miners while being low enough to satisfy domestic EV manufacturers and REPM producers. ",{"type":573,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653,655,660],{"text":654,"type":578},"China’s search for optimal prices is not yet over and could drive PrNd prices below $70/kg in the first quarter of this year, according to the ",{"text":656,"type":578,"marks":657},"Benchmark Rare Earth Forecast",[658],{"type":598,"attrs":659},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":601},{"text":661,"type":578},". ",{"type":573,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[665],{"text":666,"type":578},"“China has had a historical tendency to push prices lower than rational prices as the government has a slight preference for ensuring stable, low prices for domestic EV manufacturers rather than high profitability for its rare earth miners,” said de Jonge.",{"type":639,"attrs":668,"content":669},{"level":641,"textAlign":49},[670],{"text":671,"type":578},"Western buildout hits price roadblock",{"type":573,"attrs":673,"content":674},{"textAlign":49},[675],{"text":676,"type":578},"Without stronger prices, even China’s December 2023 export ban on rare earth production technologies will not be enough to spur faster capacity building.",{"type":573,"attrs":678,"content":679},{"textAlign":49},[680],{"text":681,"type":578},"“Investors will be careful to invest in companies with stronger economics, which could ultimately slow down production outside China,” said Benchmark analyst Neha Mukherjee. ",{"type":573,"attrs":683,"content":684},{"textAlign":49},[685],{"text":686,"type":578},"This presents Western governments and industries with limited options, according to de Jonge.",{"type":573,"attrs":688,"content":689},{"textAlign":49},[690],{"text":691,"type":578},"“We would need to see more desire to accept higher prices among OEMs if you want non-China supply. More government support or continued support too,” said de Jonge. ",{"type":639,"attrs":693,"content":694},{"level":641,"textAlign":49},[695],{"text":696,"type":578},"Lynas on track with expansion ",{"type":573,"attrs":698,"content":699},{"textAlign":49},[700],{"text":701,"type":578},"As investors draw back from rare earths, Lynas’ AUD$500 million Mount Weld mine expansion now under construction will be important for Western diversification. The asset is expected to come into full operation this year.",{"type":573,"attrs":703,"content":704},{"textAlign":49},[705],{"text":706,"type":578},"“If the expansion goes online along previously stated deadlines, it will be an important contributor to a balanced market,” said de Jonge.",{"type":573,"attrs":708,"content":709},{"textAlign":49},[710],{"text":711,"type":578},"Apart from adding raw volumes to global supply, Lynas is Australian-owned and holds processing capacity, offering a viable alternative to Chinese oxides while meeting EU and US sourcing diversification requirements. US company MP Materials is the only other major Western miner-processor.",{"type":639,"attrs":713,"content":714},{"level":641,"textAlign":49},[715],{"text":716,"type":578},"Brazil starts first ex-Asia ionic clay mine",{"type":573,"attrs":718,"content":719},{"textAlign":49},[720],{"text":721,"type":578},"As a hard rock mine, Mount Weld’s primary output will be light rare earths. Diversifying in the heavy rare earths will be harder as almost all mines and processing for these are concentrated in Asia.",{"type":573,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725],{"text":726,"type":578},"“Hard rock ores have between 5-20% PrNd oxide but just 0.01-1% heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium. By contrast, ionic clay contains higher levels of dysprosium and terbium while also containing competitive levels of PrNd,” explained de Jonge. ",{"type":573,"attrs":728,"content":729},{"textAlign":49},[730],{"text":731,"type":578},"Serra Verde’s Pela Ema mine in Brazil became the first operational ionic clay mine outside China and Myanmar in January 2024. Yet without oxide processing capacity, its heavy rare earths ores will likely go to China, which refines 99.9% of the world’s dysprosium.",{"type":639,"attrs":733,"content":734},{"level":641,"textAlign":49},[735],{"text":736,"type":578},"Myanmar supply is the big uncertainty",{"type":573,"attrs":738,"content":739},{"textAlign":49},[740,742,747],{"text":741,"type":578},"China has its own supply issues with dysprosium. Its heavy rare earths processing industry, and by extension the global oxide supply, is heavily dependent on Myanmar, which contributed 33% of mined dysprosium supply in 2023, according to ",{"text":743,"type":578,"marks":744},"Benchmark’s Rare Earth’s Forecast",[745],{"type":598,"attrs":746},{"href":600,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":601},{"text":603,"type":578},{"type":573,"attrs":749,"content":750},{"textAlign":49},[751],{"text":752,"type":578},"“China has outsourced some of its heavy rare earths mining there as it is very environmentally damaging,” explained de Jonge.",{"type":573,"attrs":754,"content":755},{"textAlign":49},[756],{"text":757,"type":578},"In 2023, mining suspensions in Myanmar, driven by local protests and inspections, led to Dy prices increasing between April and November even as light rare earths fell then stabilised. ",{"type":573,"attrs":759,"content":760},{"textAlign":49},[761],{"text":762,"type":578},"The question is whether disruptions will continue and how the market will respond. Pela Ema’s opening will help strengthen the global production this year, at 5.9% of 2024 supply. ",{"type":573,"attrs":764,"content":765},{"textAlign":49},[766],{"text":767,"type":578},"A possible though unlikely scenario is that China will raise its domestic heavy rare earths mining quotas for the first time. ",{"type":573,"attrs":769,"content":770},{"textAlign":49},[771],{"text":772,"type":578},"“Historically, China has kept its domestic heavy rare earth quota the same, only increasing their quotas for light rare earths,” said de Jonge. “However, the government is concerned with ensuring steady prices and this may force its hand to raise its heavy rare earths output.”","Supply will be key to understanding the rare earths market in 2024 when global production is set to increase amidst persistent low demand. Rare earths demand is primarily driven by their use in high-strength rare earth permanent magnets (REPMs) found inside wind turbines, electric vehicle (EV) motors, and certain defence technologies. “The outlook for 2024 […]",[775],{"slug":561,"name":562,"content":776},{"job_title":564,"image":777,"bio":567,"linkedin":568},{"filename":566},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"f21b1533-39be-4e8b-8ae7-6a6e65b7a536\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[781,784,787],{"slug":782,"name":783},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":785,"name":786},"new-energy","New Energy",{"slug":788,"name":414},"rare-earths","private",{"id":49,"alt":791,"name":625,"focus":625,"title":791,"source":625,"filename":792,"copyright":625,"fieldtype":793,"meta_data":794,"is_external_url":51},"Deep excavation hole of an open pit mine for rare earth elements","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/372ab4a754/bm-rareearthsupply2024myanmar.jpeg","asset",{"alt":791,"title":791,"source":625,"copyright":625},"Feb 02, 2024","2nd February 2024",[],[],1781882615940]