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material price spikes threaten battery cost reduction targets","raw-material-price-spikes-threaten-battery-cost-reduction-targets","article/raw-material-price-spikes-threaten-battery-cost-reduction-targets",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":666,"featured":50,"reporter":667,"_editable":671,"component":672,"seo_title":553,"categories":673,"visibility":680,"author_company":49,"featured_image":681,"seo_description":666,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":686,"formattedArticleDate":687},"88845c82-6a95-4b76-9068-878c4adbabd5","2018-06-18 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,581,587,596,601,606,611,616,621,626,631,636,641,646,651,656,661],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":577},"heading",{"level":576,"textAlign":49},3,[578],{"text":579,"type":580},"With EV producers pushing for aggressive cost decreases, battery manufacturers and cathode suppliers alike are putting raw materials front and centre of their future technology choices","text",{"type":582,"attrs":583,"content":584},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[585],{"text":586,"type":580},"A hectic Q1 for battery conferences culminated with the International Battery Seminar in FL, USA in late-March, as leading producers gathered to discuss emerging technologies and market trends. A stand out topic at the conference was the ongoing spike in a number of critical raw material input prices; a subject which was echoed at industry events throughout the quarter.",{"type":582,"attrs":588,"content":589},{"textAlign":49},[590,592,594],{"text":591,"type":580},"With battery producers under pressures to continue driving down costs to below the $100/kwh threshold, rising input prices have seen previously marginal parts of the value-chain become increasingly critical in achieving end-user cost targets. Of paramount concern to cathode consumers and battery end-users were the ongoing price rises in the cobalt market which gathered new momentum in March 2018, with the ",{"text":593,"type":580},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence",{"text":595,"type":580}," cobalt sulphate price rising to an average of RMB 136,500, up over 13% since the start of the year alone.",{"type":582,"attrs":597,"content":598},{"textAlign":49},[599],{"text":600,"type":580},"Dr Yuan Gao, President & CEO of Pulead Technology Industry Co Ltd, highlighted the growing pressures on the cathode industry as end-users’ increasing demand for range and higher-energy density was being met with higher price input from raw materials for the nickel-cobalt manganese (NCM) and nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) cathode chemistries most commonly being explored for passenger EV applications. Dr Gao went as far as saying that he expected these cost pressures to delay the switch from lithium-iron-phoshphate (LFP) to NCM in China, with lower-cost high-nickel chemistries still facing obstacles to commercialisation.",{"type":582,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604],{"text":605,"type":580},"These concerns over raw material pricing were echoed by Michael Fetcenko, Managing Director of BASF Battery Materials North America, who noted a “very challenging environment” for cathode producers to meet cost targets. These challenges, both from a price and availability perspective, have seen previously neglected input materials receive unprecedented attention from downstream users as they try to lay the foundations for the cathode developments that will drive the market over the next decade.",{"type":582,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":580},"The ongoing shift away from the current leading chemistry for transportation, LFP, and towards higher energy density cathode chemistries for passenger vehicles such as NCM and NCA is causing disruption in critical mineral markets. NCM, in particular, is seen as the chemistry of choice for the next generation of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) — particularly since the latest amendments in China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidy policy pushing for longer-range targets.",{"type":582,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":580},"However, traditionally this chemistry has required a large proportion of cobalt feedstock – a crucial stabiliser for the more volatile elements in the cathode mix. Although high pricing and sustainability concerns have seen many push towards lower-cobalt intensity in these chemistries, leading producers remain sceptical about wide-scale adoption of the coveted NCM 811 chemistry in the near-term due to issues with cycle life.",{"type":582,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619],{"text":620,"type":580},"As a result, there is a growing acceptance that cobalt will be a critical component of next generation cathode technologies for the foreseeable future, meaning the supply and price challenges facing consumers are here to stay.",{"type":574,"attrs":622,"content":623},{"level":576,"textAlign":49},[624],{"text":625,"type":580},"Downstream concerns",{"type":582,"attrs":627,"content":628},{"textAlign":49},[629],{"text":630,"type":580},"With critical raw material price concerns increasingly taking front and centre stage of EV discussion, downstream users have continued their attempts to secure supply chains into Q1 2018. While public statements, news releases and even (in the case of Volkswagen) requests for tender have shown that availability and sustainability concerns are on the radar of major downstream users, they have done little to address the underlying issues in either of the hot commodities of the past two years — lithium and cobalt.",{"type":582,"attrs":632,"content":633},{"textAlign":49},[634],{"text":635,"type":580},"As the Apples, Samsungs, BMWs and VWs of the world make loud noises about being proactive in their efforts to secure battery feedstocks, it has once again been Chinese firms that have proven proactive in securing future supplies. In late-March China’s leading lithium ion battery producer, CATL, followed in the footsteps of Great Wall Motor by investing directly in lithium resources, namely North American Lithium a Canadian company with assets in Quebec.",{"type":582,"attrs":637,"content":638},{"textAlign":49},[639],{"text":640,"type":580},"While western companies have been responsive in their approach to cobalt supplies following the sustainability issues surrounding artisanal sourced cobalt from the DRC, leading Chinese consumers have locked in more of the key raw material for all future portable energy storage — lithium. And they have not stopped there. China’s GEM also confirmed in March a deal with the world’s largest producer, Glencore, for a massive 52,800 tonnes of cobalt contained in hydroxide over a three-year period. This followed news that China’s largest refiner, Huayou Cobalt was expanding its foray into the cathode precursor market, investing to increase its production by over seven times.",{"type":582,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":580},"As has often proved the case in recent years, where China goes, the rest of the world will likely follow. However, in raw material markets which are in need of several billion dollars’ worth of investment over the next seven to eight years, time is of the essence if downstream users want to meet targets on both an energy-density and cost basis.",{"type":574,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"level":576,"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":580},"Will technology overcome costs?",{"type":582,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654],{"text":655,"type":580},"The often-touted narrative that the more expensive components of lithium ion batteries will be quickly phased out and that these price concerns will be resigned to nothing but a footnote in the lithium ion archives is attractive, however, very few downstream companies see short-term technology transformations as an immediate solution. There is a widespread acceptance — even among leading companies like BASF who are working to develop alternative chemistries such as high manganese formulations — that NMC and NCA (or potentially some hybrid of the two) are where the industry will be for at least the next five years.",{"type":582,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":580},"The lead times for auto majors introducing new technologies alone dictate this. From there onwards the question becomes: how quickly will cathode chemistries with cheaper input raw material become commonplace? There was a consensus from speakers across the industry at the 35th annual International Battery Seminar that we are still some way off the holy grail of NMC 811 and even though it will almost certainly play a bigger role in the market in the longer-term, in the near-term it will be in conjunction with 523 or 622 chemistries that dominates.",{"type":582,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":580},"What’s more, the cost and time of qualifying new cathode material are going to make any quick shift away from existing formulations particularly challenging given the life cycle and, most importantly, safety concerns of all major OEMs. So with lithium, cobalt and other niche mineral feedstocks here to stay in the era of next-generation lithium-ion batteries, volatile pricing will remain a key concern for consumers. While the path to mass-scale electrification was never going to be smooth, raw material constraints are proving an increasingly troublesome bump in the road.","With EV producers pushing for aggressive cost decreases, battery manufacturers and cathode suppliers alike are putting raw materials front and centre of their future technology choices A hectic Q1 for battery conferences culminated with the International Battery Seminar in FL, USA in late-March, as leading producers gathered to discuss emerging technologies and market trends. A […]",[668],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":669},{"job_title":565,"image":670,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"88845c82-6a95-4b76-9068-878c4adbabd5\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[674,677],{"slug":675,"name":676},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":678,"name":679},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":682,"name":682,"focus":682,"title":682,"source":682,"filename":683,"copyright":682,"fieldtype":684,"meta_data":685,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/df62720a42/bm-cobalt-27-warehouse-e1527863094748.png","asset",{"alt":682,"title":682,"source":682,"copyright":682},"Jun 18, 2018","18th June 2018",[],[],1792773944638]