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examined","rumoured-china-srb-cobalt-purchase-and-potential-market-impact-examined","article/rumoured-china-srb-cobalt-purchase-and-potential-market-impact-examined",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":556,"content":566,"excerpt":677,"featured":51,"reporter":678,"_editable":682,"component":683,"seo_title":543,"categories":684,"visibility":690,"author_company":49,"featured_image":691,"seo_description":677,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":696,"formattedArticleDate":697},"3bbc78cb-c63d-41c3-9c49-73d50ba2bf6b","2024-06-10 00:00",[550,553],{"slug":551,"name":552},"china","China",{"slug":554,"name":555},"srb","SRB",[557],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":560},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":561,"image":562,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":563},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":567,"content":568},"doc",[569,576,581,586,599,604,611,616,629,634,639,644,649,654,659,664],{"type":570,"attrs":571,"content":572},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[573],{"text":574,"type":575},"China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB) – the agency responsible for China’s stockpiles of strategic critical minerals – is rumoured to be on the brink of a record round of cobalt metal purchases.","text",{"type":570,"attrs":577,"content":578},{"textAlign":49},[579],{"text":580,"type":575},"The SRB has reportedly sent out a tender for up to 15,000 tonnes of cobalt metal to domestic refiners. While negotiations are said to be ongoing, expectations are that a price level of $10.50 – $12.00 per pound will be agreed if it were to be finalised.",{"type":570,"attrs":582,"content":583},{"textAlign":49},[584],{"text":585,"type":575},"“Short term, news of the SRB purchase could signify a change of momentum for metal prices, and suggests that Chinese officials believe that prices may have reached, or are close to, the floor,” said Roman Aubry, cobalt price analyst at Benchmark.",{"type":570,"attrs":587,"content":588},{"textAlign":49},[589,597],{"text":590,"type":575,"marks":591},"Cobalt metal prices have fallen by nearly 20% year-on-year",[592],{"type":593,"attrs":594},"link",{"href":595,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/price-assessments/cobalt/portal/","url",{"text":598,"type":575},", currently trading at their lowest level since 2019 when average metal prices reached $12.85 per pound ($28,350 per tonne).",{"type":570,"attrs":600,"content":601},{"textAlign":49},[602],{"text":603,"type":575},"The European metal market has come under pressure from an influx of Chinese material in recent months; Chinese refiners have converted excess cobalt hydroxide into metal to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities presented between the European and Chinese markets.",{"type":605,"attrs":606,"content":608},"heading",{"level":607,"textAlign":49},4,[609],{"text":610,"type":575},"What impact could the purchase have on prices?",{"type":570,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":575},"SRB stockpiling is driven by the needs of military and industrial applications in China, but has also been used as a vehicle for the Chinese government to stimulate commodity markets during downcycles. ",{"type":570,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619,621,627],{"text":620,"type":575},"Standing at roughly 30,000-40,000 tonnes per annum, the metal market’s position as a key benchmark for cobalt prices has become increasingly disproportionate to its share of the supply mix. In January, Benchmark reported that the cobalt industry is ",{"text":622,"type":575,"marks":623},"increasingly attempting to move away from the metal",[624],{"type":593,"attrs":625},{"href":626,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/cobalt-industry-looks-to-move-away-from-metal-prices-after-market-downturn",{"text":628,"type":575}," benchmark in cobalt hydroxide trades to better reflect dynamics in the battery market. ",{"type":570,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":575},"Were it to go ahead, the SRB purchase would account for close to half of all metal production in 2024 and likely lead to a short-term price dislocation. However, it is unlikely to have a material impact on the overall cobalt supply balance. ",{"type":570,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":575},"“While the purchase is not enough to shift the overall balance, it would be a positive for sentiment in an overwhelmingly bearish market,” Aubry said. ",{"type":570,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":575},"“What happens with SRB will dictate what happens with prices in the coming months, improved sentiment could disappear quickly if the purchase fails to materialise,” he added.",{"type":605,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"level":607,"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":575},"Oversupply drives prices towards historical lows",{"type":570,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[652],{"text":653,"type":575},"Sentiment in the cobalt market has turned increasingly bearish, as robust supply growth primarily from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) but also Indonesia, coupled with slower than expected  demand growth from the battery industry, has pushed the market into a structural oversupply. ",{"type":570,"attrs":655,"content":656},{"textAlign":49},[657],{"text":658,"type":575},"Prior to the rumoured SRB purchase, Benchmark forecasts that oversupply in the cobalt market would reach 12,500 tonnes in 2024. But with significant stockpiles of material accumulated across the supply chain, any purchase is unlikely to throw the market into deficit.",{"type":570,"attrs":660,"content":661},{"textAlign":49},[662],{"text":663,"type":575},"In fact, the current surplus risks widening as operations in the DRC ramp up output in response to bullish copper fundamentals; prices for the red metal reached record highs in May. Diverging fundamentals between the two markets pose a considerable downside risk for cobalt prices in the short-to-medium term. ",{"type":570,"attrs":665,"content":666},{"textAlign":49},[667,669,675],{"text":668,"type":575},"News that leading cobalt producer CMOC’s",{"text":670,"type":575,"marks":671}," first quarter production results outperformed previous guidance",[672],{"type":593,"attrs":673},{"href":674,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/cobalt-surplus-risks-widening-as-cmoc-surpasses-q1-guidance",{"text":676,"type":575}," has only served to further darken the mood. This could potentially push the market towards a record supply surplus if first quarter production is sustained on an annualised basis.","China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB) – the agency responsible for China’s stockpiles of strategic critical minerals – is rumoured to be on the brink of a record round of cobalt metal purchases. The SRB has reportedly sent out a tender for up to 15,000 tonnes of cobalt metal to domestic refiners. While negotiations are said […]",[679],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":680},{"job_title":561,"image":681,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},{"filename":563},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"3bbc78cb-c63d-41c3-9c49-73d50ba2bf6b\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[685,687],{"slug":686,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":688,"name":689},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":692,"name":692,"focus":692,"title":692,"source":692,"filename":693,"copyright":692,"fieldtype":694,"meta_data":695,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/ac49c43a63/bm-china-rare-earths-proposed-export-ban-benchmark.jpg","asset",{"alt":692,"title":692,"source":692,"copyright":692},"Jun 10, 2024","10th June 2024",[],[],1780670064250]