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decade  ","shortage-of-top-tier-battery-supply-expected-this-decade","article/shortage-of-top-tier-battery-supply-expected-this-decade",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":550,"content":560,"excerpt":650,"featured":51,"reporter":651,"_editable":655,"component":656,"seo_title":543,"categories":657,"visibility":664,"author_company":49,"featured_image":665,"seo_description":650,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":669,"formattedArticleDate":670},"00a1e978-779d-4277-8692-65e046a3b4b9","2023-01-17 00:00",[],[551],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":554},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":555,"image":556,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":557},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":561,"content":562},"doc",[563,570,575,580,585,590,595,600,609,614,619,624,629,634,639,644,647],{"type":564,"attrs":565,"content":566},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[567],{"text":568,"type":569},"A shortage of the highest quality, top-tier battery supply is expected this decade and beyond, despite significant expansion plans by the biggest producers, as soaring demand for electric vehicles swamps manufacturers.","text",{"type":564,"attrs":571,"content":572},{"textAlign":49},[573],{"text":574,"type":569},"This year, a 83 gigawatt hours (GWh) deficit is expected from tier one lithium ion battery producers, according to Benchmark forecasts.",{"type":564,"attrs":576,"content":577},{"textAlign":49},[578],{"text":579,"type":569},"The deficit is set to continue to 2025 before the market enters a brief surplus in 2026 and 2027. However, the market is expected to reenter a deficit in 2028 which is forecast to increase for the test of the decade, exceeding 400 GWh in 2030 and 1.1 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2033.",{"type":564,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":569},"Benchmark defines tier one battery gigafactories as those with more than 10 GWh of annual production capacity and that are qualified to supply more than one multinational electric vehicle (EV) producer outside of China. ",{"type":564,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":569},"The category includes manufacturers such as CATL, Panasonic, Samsung and LG Chem. These producers follow a more stringent qualification process for sourcing raw materials, resulting in higher quality and specification requirements, large sample sizes, and longer qualification times.",{"type":564,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":569},"In contrast, a surplus from tier two and three producers is expected by the end over the same time period. ",{"type":564,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":569},"“This deficit demonstrates market reliance on today’s top-tier cell manufacturers as they expand production in coming years,” said Aran Waid, senior analyst at Benchmark. “There is a requirement for further expansion from these manufacturers, as well as a need for more suppliers to qualify for tier one status to meet demand after 2027.”",{"type":564,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"type":604,"attrs":605},"image",{"id":49,"alt":606,"src":607,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":608},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/a271fe692b/bm-tier-1-cell-shortage.png",{},{"type":564,"attrs":610,"content":611},{"textAlign":49},[612],{"text":613,"type":569},"The expected battery shortfall is a reflection of an expected, continual increase in demand for EVs, particularly in Europe and North America.",{"type":564,"attrs":615,"content":616},{"textAlign":49},[617],{"text":618,"type":569},"Benchmark forecasts that battery demand in Europe and North America will more than triple between 2022 and 2027.",{"type":564,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":569},"China is the biggest EV market, but a lot of European countries have the highest EV penetration rates, added Waid. Benchmark also expects the Inflation Reduction Act to boost EV demand in the US. ",{"type":564,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":569},"The expanding deficit comes despite producers boosting investment in the final quarter of 2022. ",{"type":564,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":569},"Sunwoda confirmed plans for two cell facilities in China. It aims to produce 30 GWh in Yichang, Hefei, and 50 GWh in Yiwu, Zhejiang, with a combined investment plan of RMB 33.3bn ($4.7bn). CATL announced an RMB 14bn ($1.9bn) investment in a facility in Luoyang, Henan with a capacity of 26 GWh, Envision said it plans to develop a 30 GWh cell project in Cangzhou, Hebei.",{"type":564,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":569},"In the US, Envision confirmed plans for a 30 GWh cell facility in South Carolina.",{"type":564,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":569},"“We expect producers to take several years to hit full production capacity when they first come online,” said Waid. “Initially, there will be lower utilisation rates. Once they qualify one production line, they might be able to do the whole process faster next time by finding efficiencies in the manufacturing process.”",{"type":564,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":564,"attrs":648,"content":649},{"textAlign":49},[],"A shortage of the highest quality, top-tier battery supply is expected this decade and beyond, despite significant expansion plans by the biggest producers, as soaring demand for electric vehicles swamps manufacturers. This year, a 83 gigawatt hours (GWh) deficit is expected from tier one lithium ion battery producers, according to Benchmark forecasts. The deficit is […]",[652],{"slug":552,"name":553,"content":653},{"job_title":555,"image":654,"bio":558,"linkedin":559},{"filename":557},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"00a1e978-779d-4277-8692-65e046a3b4b9\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[658,661],{"slug":659,"name":660},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":662,"name":663},"gigafactories","Battery & Gigafactory","private",{"id":49,"alt":606,"name":606,"focus":606,"title":606,"source":606,"filename":666,"copyright":606,"fieldtype":667,"meta_data":668,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/19d07bb4be/bm-hidden-gigafactory-vietnam.jpg","asset",{"alt":606,"title":606,"source":606,"copyright":606},"Jan 17, 2023","17th January 2023",[],[],1781799364397]