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shift means lithium’s price surge is set to continue","tech-tonic-shift-means-lithiums-price-surge-is-set-to-continue","article/tech-tonic-shift-means-lithiums-price-surge-is-set-to-continue",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":763,"featured":50,"reporter":764,"_editable":768,"component":769,"seo_title":553,"categories":770,"visibility":779,"author_company":49,"featured_image":780,"seo_description":763,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":785,"formattedArticleDate":786},"358b2ca9-6fae-475c-8a06-ad4be40a68a1","2016-05-22 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,607,612,617,622,627,632,637,642,645,650,655,660,665,670,675,678,683,688,693,698,703,708,713,718,723,728,733,738,743,748,753,758],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"Lithium’s price performance highlights the material’s unique standing in a world of commodity crashes, but supply side structure remains a potential obstacle to growth","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"The price of lithium carbonate and hydroxide continued to rise through the fourth quarter of the year sparking fears from buyers that the industry is to remain in shortage for some time.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"Lithium carbonate rose to $8,000/ tonne, a 23% increase year-on-year, while lithium hydroxide went even higher to $10,000/tonne, a 25% increase over the same period.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"Strong lithium-ion battery demand in Asia has seen prices surge in 2015 and no end appears in sight as a new wave of full electric vehicles (EVs) are set to come into production over the next 18 months.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"The battery sector is in the middle of a shift from megawatt capacity plants to gigawatt operations in order to fill expected demand from the auto sector and utility storage industry.",{"type":601,"attrs":602,"content":604},"heading",{"level":603,"textAlign":49},3,[605],{"text":606,"type":579},"Commodity price divergence",{"type":574,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":579},"These are some of the few significant growth markets in the world at present and the subsequent price spike in lithium is further evidence of how this growth could be a major catalyst for change in raw material markets.",{"type":574,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":579},"Being driven by major established industries, traditional commodities such as steel and energy rely heavily on the construction of cities and infrastructure networks like rail and roads.",{"type":574,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620],{"text":621,"type":579},"China’s rapid development between 2000 and 2013 underpinned all demand for these minerals and metals. But with the country going through a major period of change, demand has plummeted leaving many questions over whether consumption will ever rebound to levels seen in the 2000s.",{"type":574,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625],{"text":626,"type":579},"The price drops experienced in commodities are in stark contrast to the battery-powered lithium industry and have been compounded by the strong US dollar, the main currency of trade.",{"type":574,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630],{"text":631,"type":579},"Bloomberg’s Commodity Index, which also tracks goods such as coffee beans and tea in addition to minerals and metals, dropped to its lowest point since July 1999 in early December.",{"type":574,"attrs":633,"content":634},{"textAlign":49},[635],{"text":636,"type":579},"Oil was a major contributing factor to these declines, dipping below $40/ bbl for the first time since February 2009 and sparking fears it could head as low as $20/bbl.",{"type":574,"attrs":638,"content":639},{"textAlign":49},[640],{"text":641,"type":579},"Iron ore slumped to a fresh ten year low in mid-December trading at $38.20/tonne, taking decreases in 2015 to 45%.",{"type":574,"attrs":643,"content":644},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"Iron ore, the most commonly cited commodity, has had an astonishing fall from grace to $38.20/tonne in mid-December compared to prices of $180/tonne as recently as 2011.",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":579},"And in addition, Copper’s price has decreased by an average of 30% throughout 2015, from $3/ lb in January to little over $2/lb in December. This adds to a long term price decline which began in 2011. Looking forward into 2016, it appears there will be more pain than gain for commodities.",{"type":574,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":579},"Moody’s place target prices of $40/ tonne for iron ore, $2.15/lb for zinc and $3.80/lb for nickel.",{"type":574,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":579},"The fortunes of lithium this year and next are a world away from this. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects lithium prices to continue there strong performance into 2016.",{"type":574,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":579},"A significant lack of supply of both lithium carbonate and hydroxide has forced prices higher on the back of growth in lithium ion battery production, which is close to 15% this year alone.",{"type":574,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":579},"New supply is looking set to be limited in 2016 with new output only expected from Orocobre in Argentina, and a potential for more hard rock tonnages from Talison in Australia.",{"type":574,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":601,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"level":603,"textAlign":49},[681],{"text":682,"type":579},"Lithium’s structural bottleneck",{"type":574,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":579},"The rise of Australian spodumene miners will be one of the key trends to watch.",{"type":574,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":579},"With production costs falling owing to the value of the Australian dollar versus the US dollar, hard rock lithium from the country has become increasingly competitive in a market that needs quick, new volumes of lithium.",{"type":574,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":579},"Spodumene offers a more rapid route to market by supplying a feedstock to Chinese lithium chemical producers without the need to build complex chemical processing plants at site.",{"type":574,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":579},"The other major lithium producing region, the Atacama in Chile, has this year seen political deadlock over the rights to extract lithium, an obstacle which looks set to remain in the short term.",{"type":574,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":579},"Therefore, there is a strong opportunity for spodumene sourced lithium to fill the supply gap the industry is facing.",{"type":574,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":579},"Benchmark believes in the next 18 months the only significant new volumes of lithium will come from the hard rock source, as has been the case for the last 4 years.",{"type":574,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716],{"text":717,"type":579},"Lithium sourced from brine is at risk of letting its dominance slip and opening the door to new extraction technologies.",{"type":574,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"textAlign":49},[721],{"text":722,"type":579},"While brine extraction of lithium is the lowest cost way of producing large volumes, lithium is an abundant mineral found in many forms including clays, seawater, geothermal brines and oilfield brines.",{"type":574,"attrs":724,"content":725},{"textAlign":49},[726],{"text":727,"type":579},"While the lithium concentrations in many of these sources are prohibitive to economic extraction, the lithium sector is susceptible to disruption.",{"type":574,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":49},[731],{"text":732,"type":579},"In the mid-1990s, SQM, emerged almost overnight to become the dominant lithium producer. Lithium was originally a by-product of potash extraction at its Salar de Atacama plant, but 15-years later has become its mineral of focus owing to the mineral’s strategic importance.",{"type":574,"attrs":734,"content":735},{"textAlign":49},[736],{"text":737,"type":579},"SQM took a commodity approach to low cost pricing which forced a number of its competitors out of business, particularly those mining from hard rock sources such as spodumene and petalite operations.",{"type":574,"attrs":739,"content":740},{"textAlign":49},[741],{"text":742,"type":579},"It only took a handful of years for this change to take shape and lithium today stands at another crossroads.",{"type":574,"attrs":744,"content":745},{"textAlign":49},[746],{"text":747,"type":579},"A lack of expansion from brines has opened the door to Orocobre and seen the rise of alternative lithium sources such as Western Lithium’s hectorate project in Nevada, and Bacanora Minerals’ Mexican clay deposit.",{"type":574,"attrs":749,"content":750},{"textAlign":49},[751],{"text":752,"type":579},"The incumbent lithium producers tried during lithium’s first price spike of 2009 to quell the furore surrounding supply availability, but in the five years since they have not been able to live up to their promises of significant expansions.",{"type":574,"attrs":754,"content":755},{"textAlign":49},[756],{"text":757,"type":579},"Only Talison has stepped forward to supply new volumes.",{"type":574,"attrs":759,"content":760},{"textAlign":49},[761],{"text":762,"type":579},"It is this inactivity from the established majors which could see a shift away from lower-cost brine sources and, arguably, poses one of the biggest bottlenecks to battery capacity expansions in the longerterm.","Lithium’s price performance highlights the material’s unique standing in a world of commodity crashes, but supply side structure remains a potential obstacle to growth The price of lithium carbonate and hydroxide continued to rise through the fourth quarter of the year sparking fears from buyers that the industry is to remain in shortage for some time. […]",[765],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":766},{"job_title":565,"image":767,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"358b2ca9-6fae-475c-8a06-ad4be40a68a1\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[771,774,777],{"slug":772,"name":773},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":775,"name":776},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":778,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":49,"alt":781,"name":781,"focus":781,"title":781,"source":781,"filename":782,"copyright":781,"fieldtype":783,"meta_data":784,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/92634bdd51/bm-trading-back.jpg","asset",{"alt":781,"title":781,"source":781,"copyright":781},"May 22, 2016","22nd May 2016",[],[],1792773949245]