[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1041},["ShallowReactive",2],{"ticker-data":3,"story-article/tesla-gigafactory-demand-revisited":550},[4,52,82,112,148,186,229,261,297,336,378,419,460,490,520],{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":8,"today":9,"last":10,"percentageChange":11,"yearToDate":12,"yearOnYear":13,"oneYearIndexTrend":14,"url":48,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-10-14","2wk","Updated every 2 weeks","Lithium",317.07,322.34,-1.64,35.66,90.62,[15,16,18,21,24,27,30,33,36,39,42,45],{"date":5,"value":9},{"date":17,"value":10},"2026-09-30",{"date":19,"value":20},"2026-09-16",354.99,{"date":22,"value":23},"2026-09-02",385.07,{"date":25,"value":26},"2026-08-19",372.67,{"date":28,"value":29},"2026-08-05",367.54,{"date":31,"value":32},"2026-07-22",388.26,{"date":34,"value":35},"2026-07-08",399.4,{"date":37,"value":38},"2026-06-24",410.62,{"date":40,"value":41},"2026-06-10",427.77,{"date":43,"value":44},"2026-05-27",449.85,{"date":46,"value":47},"2026-05-13",451.12,"/lithium/prices",null,false,true,{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":53,"today":54,"last":55,"percentageChange":56,"yearToDate":57,"yearOnYear":58,"oneYearIndexTrend":59,"url":48,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"Lithium Carbonate",256.83,278.71,-7.85,1.12,46.89,[60,61,62,64,66,68,70,72,74,76,78,80],{"date":5,"value":54},{"date":17,"value":55},{"date":19,"value":63},300.39,{"date":22,"value":65},306.07,{"date":25,"value":67},297.22,{"date":28,"value":69},296.63,{"date":31,"value":71},309.38,{"date":34,"value":73},317.2,{"date":37,"value":75},330.54,{"date":40,"value":77},346.5,{"date":43,"value":79},358.35,{"date":46,"value":81},350.28,{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":83,"today":84,"last":85,"percentageChange":86,"yearToDate":87,"yearOnYear":88,"oneYearIndexTrend":89,"url":48,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"Lithium Hydroxide",292.05,311.1,-6.12,43.7,92,[90,91,92,94,96,98,100,102,104,106,108,110],{"date":5,"value":84},{"date":17,"value":85},{"date":19,"value":93},339.85,{"date":22,"value":95},352.45,{"date":25,"value":97},341.12,{"date":28,"value":99},337.87,{"date":31,"value":101},354.36,{"date":34,"value":103},364.06,{"date":37,"value":105},376.67,{"date":40,"value":107},393.29,{"date":43,"value":109},411.01,{"date":46,"value":111},408.51,{"publishedDate":5,"updateFrequency":113,"updateFrequencyText":114,"label":115,"today":116,"last":117,"percentageChange":118,"yearToDate":119,"yearOnYear":120,"oneYearIndexTrend":121,"url":147,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"1wk","Updated every week","Cobalt",171.41,173.83,-1.39,-27.13,-1.06,[122,123,125,126,129,131,133,136,138,141,142,145],{"date":5,"value":116},{"date":124,"value":117},"2026-10-07",{"date":17,"value":117},{"date":127,"value":128},"2026-09-23",175.44,{"date":19,"value":130},178.66,{"date":22,"value":132},189.92,{"date":134,"value":135},"2026-08-26",192.6,{"date":25,"value":137},199.83,{"date":139,"value":140},"2026-08-12",217.25,{"date":28,"value":140},{"date":143,"value":144},"2026-07-29",221.25,{"date":31,"value":146},224.44,"/cobalt/prices",{"publishedDate":149,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":150,"today":151,"last":152,"percentageChange":153,"yearToDate":154,"yearOnYear":155,"oneYearIndexTrend":156,"url":185,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-10-21","Nickel",107.13,114.04,-6.06,-11.27,-0.65,[157,158,159,161,164,166,168,170,173,176,179,182],{"date":149,"value":151},{"date":124,"value":152},{"date":127,"value":160},116.1,{"date":162,"value":163},"2026-09-09",119.13,{"date":134,"value":165},119.61,{"date":139,"value":167},121.04,{"date":143,"value":169},121.19,{"date":171,"value":172},"2026-07-15",122.66,{"date":174,"value":175},"2026-07-01",125.61,{"date":177,"value":178},"2026-06-17",131.5,{"date":180,"value":181},"2026-06-03",134.65,{"date":183,"value":184},"2026-05-20",135.83,"/nickel/prices",{"publishedDate":17,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":189,"today":190,"last":191,"percentageChange":192,"yearToDate":193,"yearOnYear":194,"oneYearIndexTrend":195,"url":228,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"1mo","Updated every month","Natural Graphite",78.45,80.18,-2.16,-3.84,-4.03,[196,197,199,202,205,208,211,214,217,220,223,226],{"date":17,"value":190},{"date":198,"value":191},"2026-08-28",{"date":200,"value":201},"2026-07-31",80.66,{"date":203,"value":204},"2026-06-30",82.87,{"date":206,"value":207},"2026-05-29",82.99,{"date":209,"value":210},"2026-04-30",82.93,{"date":212,"value":213},"2026-03-31",82.39,{"date":215,"value":216},"2026-02-27",81.92,{"date":218,"value":219},"2026-01-30",81.69,{"date":221,"value":222},"2025-12-31",81.58,{"date":224,"value":225},"2025-11-28",81.35,{"date":227,"value":225},"2025-10-31","/natural-graphite/prices",{"publishedDate":17,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":230,"today":231,"last":232,"percentageChange":233,"yearToDate":234,"yearOnYear":235,"oneYearIndexTrend":236,"url":260,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"Anode Coke",86.15,81.86,5.24,15.73,19.78,[237,238,239,241,242,244,246,248,250,252,254,257],{"date":17,"value":231},{"date":200,"value":232},{"date":203,"value":240},80.54,{"date":206,"value":240},{"date":209,"value":243},84.01,{"date":212,"value":245},79.79,{"date":215,"value":247},75.72,{"date":218,"value":249},74.61,{"date":221,"value":251},74.44,{"date":227,"value":253},72.75,{"date":255,"value":256},"2025-09-30",71.92,{"date":258,"value":259},"2025-08-29",71.46,"/synthetic-graphite/prices",{"publishedDate":262,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":263,"today":264,"last":265,"percentageChange":266,"yearToDate":267,"yearOnYear":268,"oneYearIndexTrend":269,"url":296,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-10-15","Anode",80.45,80.24,0.27,1.81,3.2,[270,271,273,275,276,278,281,284,287,289,291,293],{"date":262,"value":264},{"date":272,"value":265},"2026-09-15",{"date":274,"value":265},"2026-08-17",{"date":171,"value":265},{"date":277,"value":265},"2026-06-15",{"date":279,"value":280},"2026-05-15",79.16,{"date":282,"value":283},"2026-04-15",81.98,{"date":285,"value":286},"2026-03-16",79.03,{"date":288,"value":286},"2026-02-16",{"date":290,"value":286},"2026-01-15",{"date":292,"value":286},"2025-12-15",{"date":294,"value":295},"2025-11-17",77.79,"/anode/prices",{"publishedDate":298,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":299,"today":300,"last":301,"percentageChange":302,"yearToDate":303,"yearOnYear":304,"oneYearIndexTrend":305,"url":335,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-08-01","Cathode",73.32,77.21,-5.04,14.41,55.07,[306,307,308,311,314,317,320,323,325,327,329,332],{"date":298,"value":300},{"date":174,"value":301},{"date":309,"value":310},"2026-06-01",80.32,{"date":312,"value":313},"2026-05-01",81.71,{"date":315,"value":316},"2026-04-01",77.27,{"date":318,"value":319},"2026-03-01",81.99,{"date":321,"value":322},"2026-02-01",80.5,{"date":290,"value":324},72.79,{"date":292,"value":326},64.08,{"date":294,"value":328},62.01,{"date":330,"value":331},"2025-10-15",53.51,{"date":333,"value":334},"2025-09-15",49.5,"/cathode/prices",{"publishedDate":337,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":338,"today":339,"last":340,"percentageChange":341,"yearToDate":342,"yearOnYear":343,"oneYearIndexTrend":344,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2025-03-31","Lithium ion Batteries",74.53,71.3,4.53,-1.6,-20.88,[345,346,348,351,354,357,360,363,366,368,371,374],{"date":337,"value":339},{"date":347,"value":340},"2025-02-28",{"date":349,"value":350},"2025-01-31",71.45,{"date":352,"value":353},"2024-12-31",75.74,{"date":355,"value":356},"2024-11-29",76.98,{"date":358,"value":359},"2024-10-31",77.34,{"date":361,"value":362},"2024-09-30",77.43,{"date":364,"value":365},"2024-08-30",80.56,{"date":367,"value":207},"2024-07-31",{"date":369,"value":370},"2024-06-28",87.2,{"date":372,"value":373},"2024-05-31",90.7,{"date":375,"value":376},"2024-04-30",93.2,"/battery-gigafactory/prices",{"publishedDate":379,"updateFrequency":6,"updateFrequencyText":7,"label":380,"today":381,"last":382,"percentageChange":383,"yearToDate":384,"yearOnYear":385,"oneYearIndexTrend":386,"url":418,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"2026-10-08","Black Mass",37.11,38.95,-4.72,-14,18.31,[387,388,390,393,396,399,402,405,408,411,414,416],{"date":379,"value":381},{"date":389,"value":382},"2026-09-24",{"date":391,"value":392},"2026-09-10",42.03,{"date":394,"value":395},"2026-08-27",43.88,{"date":397,"value":398},"2026-08-13",42.33,{"date":400,"value":401},"2026-07-30",43.42,{"date":403,"value":404},"2026-07-16",46.74,{"date":406,"value":407},"2026-07-02",46.01,{"date":409,"value":410},"2026-06-18",49.57,{"date":412,"value":413},"2026-02-12",47.34,{"date":415,"value":410},"2026-01-29",{"date":290,"value":417},43.15,"/recycling/black-mass-prices",{"publishedDate":262,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":420,"today":421,"last":422,"percentageChange":423,"yearToDate":424,"yearOnYear":425,"oneYearIndexTrend":426,"url":459,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"Rare Earths",172.08,171.72,0.21,20.59,30.21,[427,428,430,433,436,439,442,445,448,451,454,457],{"date":262,"value":421},{"date":429,"value":422},"2026-10-01",{"date":431,"value":432},"2026-09-03",170.83,{"date":434,"value":435},"2026-08-20",169.63,{"date":437,"value":438},"2026-08-06",172.28,{"date":440,"value":441},"2026-07-23",173.94,{"date":443,"value":444},"2026-07-09",171.69,{"date":446,"value":447},"2026-06-25",168.55,{"date":449,"value":450},"2026-06-11",165,{"date":452,"value":453},"2026-05-28",163.89,{"date":455,"value":456},"2026-05-14",172.63,{"date":209,"value":458},175.6,"/rare-earths/prices",{"publishedDate":198,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":461,"today":462,"last":463,"percentageChange":464,"yearToDate":465,"yearOnYear":466,"oneYearIndexTrend":467,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"NCM Mid-Nickel",152.7,162.48,-6.02,17.38,53.11,[468,469,470,472,474,476,478,480,482,484,486,488],{"date":198,"value":462},{"date":200,"value":463},{"date":203,"value":471},171.08,{"date":206,"value":473},173.65,{"date":209,"value":475},164.53,{"date":212,"value":477},157.28,{"date":215,"value":479},151.44,{"date":218,"value":481},144.5,{"date":221,"value":483},130.09,{"date":224,"value":485},124.6,{"date":227,"value":487},122.35,{"date":255,"value":489},103.5,{"publishedDate":198,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":491,"today":492,"last":493,"percentageChange":494,"yearToDate":495,"yearOnYear":496,"oneYearIndexTrend":497,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"NCM High-Nickel",144.45,149.67,-3.49,26.69,49.06,[498,499,500,502,504,506,508,510,512,514,516,518],{"date":198,"value":492},{"date":200,"value":493},{"date":203,"value":501},157.37,{"date":206,"value":503},160,{"date":209,"value":505},149.53,{"date":212,"value":507},141.97,{"date":215,"value":509},136.99,{"date":218,"value":511},129.81,{"date":221,"value":513},114.02,{"date":224,"value":515},109.17,{"date":227,"value":517},109.02,{"date":255,"value":519},99.44,{"publishedDate":198,"updateFrequency":187,"updateFrequencyText":188,"label":521,"today":522,"last":523,"percentageChange":524,"yearToDate":525,"yearOnYear":526,"oneYearIndexTrend":527,"url":377,"subscription":49,"isProtected":50,"hasAccess":51},"LFP",229.17,218.34,4.96,49.35,83.44,[528,529,530,532,534,536,538,540,542,544,546,548],{"date":198,"value":522},{"date":200,"value":523},{"date":203,"value":531},239.1,{"date":206,"value":533},258.32,{"date":209,"value":535},239.37,{"date":212,"value":537},213.01,{"date":215,"value":539},204.49,{"date":218,"value":541},218.06,{"date":221,"value":543},153.45,{"date":224,"value":545},134.02,{"date":227,"value":547},118.22,{"date":255,"value":549},111.93,{"id":551,"uuid":552,"name":553,"slug":554,"full_slug":555,"content":556,"relatedArticles":1039,"relatedVideos":1040},112475142212796,"da91234b-754d-428f-9e29-c3b92e5ca826","Tesla Gigafactory  demand: revisited","tesla-gigafactory-demand-revisited","article/tesla-gigafactory-demand-revisited",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":1014,"featured":50,"reporter":1015,"_editable":1019,"component":1020,"seo_title":553,"categories":1021,"visibility":1031,"author_company":49,"featured_image":1032,"seo_description":1014,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":1037,"formattedArticleDate":1038},"d68c4c19-6916-47bf-9c0f-5f675026ea92","2016-07-20 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"tesla","Tesla",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,598,603,608,613,618,625,630,635,640,645,648,653,658,663,668,673,678,683,688,693,698,703,708,713,718,723,728,733,738,743,748,753,758,763,768,773,778,781,786,791,796,801,806,811,816,821,826,831,836,841,846,851,856,861,866,871,876,881,886,891,896,901,906,911,914,919,924,929,934,939,944,949,954,959,964,969,974,979,984,989,994,999,1004,1009],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582}," Benchmark analyses new demand data for graphite, lithium and cobalt one year on from Tesla Motors announcing its game-changing plan to build the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery plant","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"It has been almost exactly a year since Tesla Motors Inc announced a revolutionary plan to build the world’s largest lithium-ion battery plant, the Gigafactory.",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"In a megastructure, one-mile in length and 70ft high, Tesla wants to produce the equivalent of the world’s battery production in 2013 under one roof – 35GWh worth of cells. It is unprecedented in scale and ambition and is a make or break move for the high end electric vehicle (EV) pioneer that is seeking a mass market position.",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":582},"To date, Tesla has already experienced strong sales of its Model S, and in mid-2015 is set to begin sales of the Model X – both of which will use a 60 kWh or 85 kWh lithiumion battery.",{"type":577,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601],{"text":602,"type":582},"The lower cost Gigafactory batteries will be used in both of these existing models, and will, most importantly, give birth to the company’s first mass-market EV, the Model III which is expected to have a 48 kWh battery.",{"type":577,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":582},"The Gigafactory also holds the power to revolutionise demand for graphite, lithium and cobalt, the key input raw materials that will fuel its production capacity of 500,000 vehicles worth of lithium-ion batteries.",{"type":577,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":582},"The analysts behind Benchmark Mineral Intelligence calculated and published initial demand data for the Gigafactory in Q1 2014 which has been widely cited around the world.",{"type":577,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":582},"Now, with the $5bn project a year ahead of schedule, Benchmark has decided to revisit the numbers and the Gigafactory timeframe to see what impact critical mineral and metal industries should be braced for and when to expect it.",{"type":619,"attrs":620,"content":622},"heading",{"level":621,"textAlign":49},3,[623],{"text":624,"type":582}," Graphite",{"type":577,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":582},"Graphite, the battery anode, will be the largest input raw material into the Gigafactory.",{"type":577,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":582},"Tesla have the option to go with either natural or synthetic graphite or could even be a blend of both.",{"type":577,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":582},"The battery industry today is divided on what material it consumes with about 60% of all graphite in batteries from natural flake and 40% from synthetic, man-made sources.",{"type":577,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":582},"Under a bullish scenario that assumes the company will hit its capacity in 2020, significant amounts of battery grade graphite will be needed. The chart (p48) outlines that raw material buying for the Gigafactory is expected to start in 2016 when Benchmark estimates that Tesla will need to secure 8,000-10,000 tonnes of spherical battery grade graphite. If this is sourced from natural flake graphite this equates to 25,000 tonne of flake concentrate that will need to be mined.",{"type":577,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":577,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651],{"text":652,"type":582},"Today, Benchmark estimates the average capacity of a graphite mine outside of China is 11,600 tonnes. It is also important to note that on average only 60% of the flake concentrate a mine produces can be used as a battery graphite feedstock – the medium and large flake material – therefore at today’s rates the Gigafactory will be consuming the equivalent of 1.4 mines worth of product in 2016 alone.",{"type":577,"attrs":654,"content":655},{"textAlign":49},[656],{"text":657,"type":582},"This will add pressure on the market particularly considering that at present, only medium flake graphite from China is used to produce spherical graphite – a source that Tesla is trying to avoid on environmental grounds.",{"type":577,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"textAlign":49},[661],{"text":662,"type":582},"Once the super plant is approaching capacity in 2020 with raw material buying and stockpiling expected for this expansion in 2019, Gigafactory graphite demand is forecast to be 38,000-42,000 tonnes of spherical graphite or around 100,000 tonnes of flake graphite. By today’s standards, this is the equivalent of 6 mines worth of flake graphite.",{"type":577,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"textAlign":49},[666],{"text":667,"type":582},"Quite simply if Tesla uses natural graphite, new supply will be needed, especially if China – which produces almost 100% of uncoated battery grade graphite today – is discounted as a source.",{"type":577,"attrs":669,"content":670},{"textAlign":49},[671],{"text":672,"type":582},"The company could also opt to use synthetic graphite, however this raw material has a larger environmental impact than its natural counterpart and is more expensive – with synthetic concentrate powder selling for roughly double the price.",{"type":577,"attrs":674,"content":675},{"textAlign":49},[676],{"text":677,"type":582},"It is likely if new supply of natural flake does not come on-stream, synthetic’s importance will grow.",{"type":619,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"level":621,"textAlign":49},[681],{"text":682,"type":582}," Lithium",{"type":577,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":582},"Even though lithium has, on the surface, a less critical supply situation than graphite, there are still significant challenges for Tesla in sourcing the right product and at the volume needed.",{"type":577,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":582},"Lithium carbonate is the primary product in the industry and is a market that is 2.5 times the size of the lithium hydroxide sector, a product that is also used in batteries.",{"type":577,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":582},"Owing to the Panasonic design of battery the Gigafactory is using, Tesla will need significant volumes of lithium hydroxide which is harder to source than lithium carbonate. At capacity, Tesla will need between 22-26,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium hydroxide.",{"type":577,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":582}," At present, the majority of lithium is produced as a non-metallic product in Chile and Argentina from brines, and Australia from spodumene, the hard rock form. These are Tesla’s primary sourcing options.",{"type":577,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":582},"Australia’s source of lithium is operated by Talison Lithium – the world’s largest hard rock lithium mine – which exports nearly all of the concentrate it produces to China, a country that is heavily reliant on spodumene feedstock for its domestic industry. Chinese producers utilise the older concentrate-tolithium conversion technology to produce a variety of downstream chemicals.",{"type":577,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":582},"The only other major sources of lithium today are from the brines of the Salar de Atacama in Chile and the Hombre Muerto and Olaroz salars in Argentina.",{"type":577,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716],{"text":717,"type":582},"Chile is home to the lowest cost and highest volume producers SQM SA and Rockwood Lithium, while the third largest brine producer FMC Lithium operates from the Hombre Muerto. Both Rockwood and FMC Lithium conduct further downstream processing of its lithium feedstock at plants in the US and Germany.",{"type":577,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"textAlign":49},[721],{"text":722,"type":582},"Argentina also welcomed a new producer in the form of Australia-based Orocobre Ltd which operates from the Salar de Olaroz.",{"type":577,"attrs":724,"content":725},{"textAlign":49},[726],{"text":727,"type":582},"Orocobre is expected to begin shipments by Q2 2015.",{"type":577,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":49},[731],{"text":732,"type":582},"The US produces lithium hydroxide from Silver Peak in Nevada, which is owned and operated by Rockwood Lithium.",{"type":577,"attrs":734,"content":735},{"textAlign":49},[736],{"text":737,"type":582},"The output is small however and only a fraction of the supply needed by the Gigafactory.",{"type":577,"attrs":739,"content":740},{"textAlign":49},[741],{"text":742,"type":582},"The closest active potential source of lithium to the Gigafactory, Western Lithium, is presently only producing hectorite clay as a drilling mud for the oil and gas industry and is looking to enter the lithium market in the near-term.",{"type":577,"attrs":744,"content":745},{"textAlign":49},[746],{"text":747,"type":582},"The lithium industry is more geared to supplying the battery sector than graphite since a surge in demand in 2004 as mobile technology took off, most notably with smartphones and tablets using lithium-ion batteries.",{"type":577,"attrs":749,"content":750},{"textAlign":49},[751],{"text":752,"type":582},"The doubts are not over whether the industry can supply lithium in general but rather the volumes needed of the right specification can be produced in a cost effective manner.",{"type":619,"attrs":754,"content":755},{"level":621,"textAlign":49},[756],{"text":757,"type":582}," Cobalt",{"type":577,"attrs":759,"content":760},{"textAlign":49},[761],{"text":762,"type":582},"The battery industry is the largest market for cobalt producers, accounting for over 40% of total demand in 2014.",{"type":577,"attrs":764,"content":765},{"textAlign":49},[766],{"text":767,"type":582},"The major challenge with the sourcing of cobalt is overreliance on the Democratic Republic of Congo, one the world’s poorest and most politically unstable countries.",{"type":577,"attrs":769,"content":770},{"textAlign":49},[771],{"text":772,"type":582},"While Congo does not have significant processing capacities it supplies an estimated 55-60% of the world’s cobalt concentrate to refineries, the majority of which reside in China.",{"type":577,"attrs":774,"content":775},{"textAlign":49},[776],{"text":777,"type":582},"At capacity the Gigafactory will require 5,000-7,000 tonnes of battery grade cobalt material. Last year, the industry produced 80,000 tonnes of refined product of which 30,000-35,000 tonnes was battery grade material. This equates to an increase in battery demand of 20% from one consumer alone.",{"type":577,"attrs":779,"content":780},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":577,"attrs":782,"content":783},{"textAlign":49},[784],{"text":785,"type":582},"Cobalt from the central African country was not cited in the US’ Dodd-Frank conflict minerals act while other minerals mined, transported and traded in the same way were tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold.",{"type":577,"attrs":787,"content":788},{"textAlign":49},[789],{"text":790,"type":582},"There is a school of thinking which suggests that cobalt should have been named as a conflict mineral but owing to its delicate supply situation was not included.",{"type":577,"attrs":792,"content":793},{"textAlign":49},[794],{"text":795,"type":582},"It is thought the main reason for its exclusion was because of a high risk of volatility in the market if consumers were forced to reveal where they source their raw materials from.",{"type":577,"attrs":797,"content":798},{"textAlign":49},[799],{"text":800,"type":582},"If cobalt was given conflict mineral status it would restrict the majority of supply on the market and lead to price spikes and major sourcing problems for technology companies, particularly in the US.",{"type":577,"attrs":802,"content":803},{"textAlign":49},[804],{"text":805,"type":582},"Cobalt has already experienced price volatility between 2003-2009 owing to a number of factors including inelasticity of supply and the emergence of new demand from the battery market.",{"type":577,"attrs":807,"content":808},{"textAlign":49},[809],{"text":810,"type":582},"This will be something that the industry will seek to avoid otherwise consumers could be forced to explore other cathode chemistries.",{"type":619,"attrs":812,"content":813},{"level":621,"textAlign":49},[814],{"text":815,"type":582}," Demand challenges",{"type":577,"attrs":817,"content":818},{"textAlign":49},[819],{"text":820,"type":582},"It is important to emphasise the number of hurdles Tesla’s Gigafactory will have to negotiate to hit capacity and create the growth expected for graphite, lithium and cobalt.",{"type":577,"attrs":822,"content":823},{"textAlign":49},[824],{"text":825,"type":582},"Here Benchmark explores these challenges:",{"type":577,"attrs":827,"content":828},{"textAlign":49},[829],{"text":830,"type":582},"1. Who will buy the batteries or cars?",{"type":577,"attrs":832,"content":833},{"textAlign":49},[834],{"text":835,"type":582},"Tesla is banking on the lower cost batteries sparking a significant surge in demand for what will be cheaper EVs.",{"type":577,"attrs":837,"content":838},{"textAlign":49},[839],{"text":840,"type":582},"At capacity, the Gigafatory will produce enough battery packs for around 500,000 vehicles which will be a combination of the Model III, Model S and Model X.",{"type":577,"attrs":842,"content":843},{"textAlign":49},[844],{"text":845,"type":582},"The company will use Gigafactory batteries to drive the price of the Model III to below $35,000. It is now a race with General Motors (GM) to produce the cheapest ever fully electric vehicle available in the western world. In January 2015, GM revealed its plan to produce the Chevrolet Bolt for $30,000 by 2017.",{"type":577,"attrs":847,"content":848},{"textAlign":49},[849],{"text":850,"type":582},"This coupled with the significant network of charging infrastructure Tesla has installed over the past three years is hoped to be sufficient to induce sales of 500,000 electric vehicles by 2020 – roughly eight times the amount US consumers purchased in 2014.",{"type":577,"attrs":852,"content":853},{"textAlign":49},[854],{"text":855,"type":582},"Over the last seven years, the company has excelled in the niche, high end market and managed to sell its vehicles on the basis of performance and style, making EVs desirable to consumers with disposal cash.",{"type":577,"attrs":857,"content":858},{"textAlign":49},[859],{"text":860,"type":582},"The challenge is whether Tesla can shift this business model to the mass-market and whether the mass market is ready to accept an EV.",{"type":577,"attrs":862,"content":863},{"textAlign":49},[864],{"text":865,"type":582},"2. What happens if EVs do not take off quickly enough?",{"type":577,"attrs":867,"content":868},{"textAlign":49},[869],{"text":870,"type":582},"Tesla is already putting plans in place to use excess battery output for home and utility/ stationary storage applications.",{"type":577,"attrs":872,"content":873},{"textAlign":49},[874],{"text":875,"type":582},"On the roof of the Gigafactory will be solar panels harnessing the power of the Nevada sun. Excess batteries are expected to be used as mass storage devices for this renewable energy, allowing the plant to recall the power when necessary with a goal of being a zero net energy operation.",{"type":577,"attrs":877,"content":878},{"textAlign":49},[879],{"text":880,"type":582},"It is also looking to sell batteries to other producers of renewable energy within the US as well as EV producers rumoured to include BMW.",{"type":577,"attrs":882,"content":883},{"textAlign":49},[884],{"text":885,"type":582},"In 2014, power companies like Southern California Edison (SCE) created energy storage farms in California for a similar purpose and at present, owns the largest of many such facilities in North America at 32 MW.",{"type":577,"attrs":887,"content":888},{"textAlign":49},[889],{"text":890,"type":582},"The company will be looking to boost the already gathering momentum in large scale, stationary storage. And it is a goal that already has US utility companies looking over their shoulders.",{"type":577,"attrs":892,"content":893},{"textAlign":49},[894],{"text":895,"type":582},"3. What are the biggest factors that could stifle the Gigafactory development?",{"type":577,"attrs":897,"content":898},{"textAlign":49},[899],{"text":900,"type":582},"Raw material availability is probably the biggest challenge facing the Gigafactory outside of the need for basic demand. It is also the only area of the EV supply chain where Tesla does not have ownership and control.",{"type":577,"attrs":902,"content":903},{"textAlign":49},[904],{"text":905,"type":582},"Getting the right volumes of pre-cursor minerals and metals – of which graphite, lithium and cobalt are the most critical – is a huge challenge.",{"type":577,"attrs":907,"content":908},{"textAlign":49},[909],{"text":910,"type":582},"Not only does Tesla need to secure long term deals of the right specification for battery-grade raw materials, but it needs to do so at the right price and from sources that fall in line with the companies green, sustainable policies.",{"type":577,"attrs":912,"content":913},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":577,"attrs":915,"content":916},{"textAlign":49},[917],{"text":918,"type":582},"While Tesla initially announced it would only source Gigafactory raw materials from North America, it has since clarified that the search will be global.",{"type":577,"attrs":920,"content":921},{"textAlign":49},[922],{"text":923,"type":582},"Today, no spherical graphite or batterygrade cobalt is produced in North America.",{"type":577,"attrs":925,"content":926},{"textAlign":49},[927],{"text":928,"type":582},"Meanwhile, the volumes of lithium hydroxide required means the company would need to source the majority from outside of the continent.",{"type":577,"attrs":930,"content":931},{"textAlign":49},[932],{"text":933,"type":582},"Tesla is still set on sourcing ethical raw material that has a lowest possible environmental impact, which is usually is at odds with economics.",{"type":577,"attrs":935,"content":936},{"textAlign":49},[937],{"text":938,"type":582},"This, in essence, eliminates China for graphite and the Congo for cobalt. Lithium appears on safe ground with the majority being produced in Chile from lower impact, subsurface brines, however hydroxide capacities will have to increase.",{"type":577,"attrs":940,"content":941},{"textAlign":49},[942],{"text":943,"type":582},"Eliminating China from the graphite picture is a bold move.",{"type":577,"attrs":945,"content":946},{"textAlign":49},[947],{"text":948,"type":582},"China produces nearly all of the world’s spherical graphite and has been supplying Japan and South Korea’s battery industry for over a decade.",{"type":577,"attrs":950,"content":951},{"textAlign":49},[952],{"text":953,"type":582},"Eliminating a source on environmental grounds leaves Tesla with two main options: a) To work with the exploration and development sector to build the world’s newest mine, or, b) To work with established graphite processors that source raw material from around the world but not from China.",{"type":577,"attrs":955,"content":956},{"textAlign":49},[957],{"text":958,"type":582},"These mineral industries are so niche that making one such decision can have wide reaching implications. There is also a huge need for supply chain security: Tesla will require more than one source of each raw material.",{"type":577,"attrs":960,"content":961},{"textAlign":49},[962],{"text":963,"type":582},"This is a problem that will never go away.",{"type":577,"attrs":965,"content":966},{"textAlign":49},[967],{"text":968,"type":582},"Raw material sourcing is an ever changing environment that requires constant evaluation and forecasting of competing demand.",{"type":619,"attrs":970,"content":971},{"level":621,"textAlign":49},[972],{"text":973,"type":582}," Competition rising",{"type":577,"attrs":975,"content":976},{"textAlign":49},[977],{"text":978,"type":582},"As has been highlighted by Benchmark on a number of occasions, Tesla is not the only megaproject in the pipeline; LG Chem, Boston Power and Foxconn Technology Group are also planning super-plants in China while smaller plants and expansions are also schedule to come online around the world in the next 3 years.",{"type":577,"attrs":980,"content":981},{"textAlign":49},[982],{"text":983,"type":582},"If all these battery plants come on-stream within a 2 year period of each other, a surge in raw material demand will occur which would be a significantly disruptive event for the market.",{"type":577,"attrs":985,"content":986},{"textAlign":49},[987],{"text":988,"type":582},"Lithium and cobalt experienced price volatility as a result of similar disruptive events in the mid-2000s when battery production for mobile technology increased.",{"type":577,"attrs":990,"content":991},{"textAlign":49},[992],{"text":993,"type":582},"The difference with today is that nearly all the battery plants scheduled are for the much larger EV battery packs requiring more batteries and raw material.",{"type":577,"attrs":995,"content":996},{"textAlign":49},[997],{"text":998,"type":582},"We are entering a period of significant change, with industrial markets such as steel stalling, new technologies such as batteries are emerging.",{"type":577,"attrs":1000,"content":1001},{"textAlign":49},[1002],{"text":1003,"type":582},"This is causing tensions in the raw material industries that supply both markets as, for the first time in many cases, there is competition for the same minerals or metals from multiple industries.",{"type":577,"attrs":1005,"content":1006},{"textAlign":49},[1007],{"text":1008,"type":582},"Tesla and its Gigafactory plan has thrust this discussion into the limelight and forced the most pessimistic of participants to look at a future where batteries are a major global industry on a par with aluminium, ceramics, glass, paint and plastics.",{"type":577,"attrs":1010,"content":1011},{"textAlign":49},[1012],{"text":1013,"type":582},"The battery discussion has now moved from the arena of ‘if’ they will become a major part of our lives to predicting when. And the Gigafactory has created the blueprint.","Benchmark analyses new demand data for graphite, lithium and cobalt one year on from Tesla Motors announcing its game-changing plan to build the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery plant",[1016],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":1017},{"job_title":568,"image":1018,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"d68c4c19-6916-47bf-9c0f-5f675026ea92\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[1022,1025,1028],{"slug":1023,"name":1024},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":1026,"name":1027},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":1029,"name":1030},"gigafactories","Battery & Gigafactory","private",{"id":49,"alt":1033,"name":1033,"focus":1033,"title":1033,"source":1033,"filename":1034,"copyright":1033,"fieldtype":1035,"meta_data":1036,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/291bbab840/bm-screen-shot-2016-07-20-at-144336.png","asset",{"alt":1033,"title":1033,"source":1033,"copyright":1033},"Jul 20, 2016","20th July 2016",[],[],1792773948110]