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highlights tier one battery bottleneck and semiconductor shortage as 4680 cell nears green light","tesla-highlights-tier-one-battery-bottleneck-and-semiconductor-shortage-as-4680-cell-nears-green-light","article/tesla-highlights-tier-one-battery-bottleneck-and-semiconductor-shortage-as-4680-cell-nears-green-light",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":729,"featured":50,"reporter":730,"_editable":734,"component":735,"seo_title":553,"categories":736,"visibility":740,"author_company":49,"featured_image":741,"seo_description":729,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":746,"formattedArticleDate":747},"df208306-2bc8-49a5-b2a2-cc248cee3683","2021-08-13 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"cells","Cells",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,608,621,628,633,638,643,656,661,666,671,684,689,694,699,704,709,714,719,724],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"Tesla is feeling the combined effects of an ongoing global semiconductor shortage and a limited supply of tier one lithium battery cells, writing in its Q2 2021 earnings presentation that “due to the limited availability of battery cells and global supply chain challenges, we have shifted the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022.”","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"Tesla’s 4680 cells, which are not yet at commercial production levels, are the likely route of the battery bottleneck which is delaying bringing the Semi to market.",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"Tesla had originally used 2170 cells in the Semi prototype, but plans to use 4680 cells in production to ensure there remains a sufficient supply of 2170 cells for the Model 3 at Gigafactory 1.",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596,598,606],{"text":597,"type":582},"The ",{"text":599,"type":582,"marks":600},"4680 cells are currently under development",[601],{"type":602,"attrs":603},"link",{"href":604,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":605},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/teslas-quest-for-battery-cell-superiority-continues","url",{"text":607,"type":582}," at the company’s 10 GWh pilot plant but are edging closer to commercial production as the company recently set out in its Q2 earnings call. Drew Baglino – SVP, Powertrain and Energy Engineering at Tesla said, “we have successfully validated performance and lifetime of our 4680 cells produced at our Kato facility in California. We are nearing the end of manufacturing validation…our focus is now on improving the 10% of manufacturing processes that currently bottleneck production output.”",{"type":577,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611,613,619],{"text":612,"type":582},"While constrained 4680 battery cell supply is delaying bringing the Semi to market, Tesla explained that for the remainder of 2021 the ",{"text":614,"type":582,"marks":615},"global semiconductor shortage",[616],{"type":602,"attrs":617},{"href":618,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":605},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/does-the-global-chip-shortage-threaten-the-ev-production-ramp-up",{"text":620,"type":582}," will be the core factor limiting the company’s overall production numbers.",{"type":622,"attrs":623,"content":625},"heading",{"level":624,"textAlign":49},4,[626],{"text":627,"type":582},"Tier one cell shortage risks",{"type":577,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"textAlign":49},[631],{"text":632,"type":582},"While Tesla’s battery cell supply constraints are only affecting the production of the Tesla Semi, the issue illustrates how a failure to source suitable lithium ion cells can upend an automaker’s production plans.",{"type":577,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"textAlign":49},[636],{"text":637,"type":582},"Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Megafactory Assessment is tracking 4,100 GWh of capacity in the pipeline for 2030, yet only 39% of this capacity is held by tier 1 battery cell producers capable of meeting the qualification standards set by Tesla and other global electric vehicle (EV) makers.",{"type":577,"attrs":639,"content":640},{"textAlign":49},[641],{"text":642,"type":582},"As such, while headline numbers show that cell production can meet demand, the reality is that EV producers can only make use of a proportion of the cells produced globally.",{"type":577,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"textAlign":49},[646,648,654],{"text":647,"type":582},"The cell supply risks facing automakers were ",{"text":649,"type":582,"marks":650},"highlighted in early 2020",[651],{"type":602,"attrs":652},{"href":653,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":605},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/europes-automotive-battery-shortage-is-all-about-quality-not-quantity",{"text":655,"type":582},", when several European companies, including Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover and Audi, suggested that supply bottlenecks were affecting EV production.",{"type":577,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":582},"Outside of these isolated issues, there has not been a widespread cell supply shortage at the scale of the current semiconductor shortage, but as automakers ramp up EV production the risks of small bottlenecks developing into structural deficits are magnified. Based on current developments, Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Cell Database is forecasting a battery deficit emerging in the mid-2020s.",{"type":622,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"level":624,"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":582},"LFP vs nickel cathodes",{"type":577,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":582},"In Tesla’s earnings call, CEO Elon Musk once again entered the LFP (lithium iron phosphate) vs nickel-based (NCM and NCA) cathode chemistry debate, estimating that the company could move to two-thirds LFP and one-third nickel based in the long-term.",{"type":577,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674,676,682],{"text":675,"type":582},"LFP production today is centred in China, but with ",{"text":677,"type":582,"marks":678},"key patents opening up at the end of this year",[679],{"type":602,"attrs":680},{"href":681,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":605},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/basf-umicore-patent-agreement-shows-importance-of-ip-in-cathode-industry",{"text":683,"type":582}," it is increasingly likely that other regions will establish LFP production capacity.",{"type":577,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"textAlign":49},[687],{"text":688,"type":582},"But any global shift to LFP will be a long-term trend as the bulk of battery cell plants in the pipeline outside of China are set to use nickel chemistries.",{"type":577,"attrs":690,"content":691},{"textAlign":49},[692],{"text":693,"type":582},"Benchmark’s view is that NCM chemistries will remain the predominant cathode of choice. This is reflected in Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Database, which forecasts LFP to hold a market share of 17% in 2025 compared with 73% for NCM/NCA chemistries.",{"type":577,"attrs":695,"content":696},{"textAlign":49},[697],{"text":698,"type":582},"The use of LFP or high nickel chemistries ultimately depends on the final application. Within Tesla’s EV offerings, lower-range, lower-cost vehicles, are the most likely candidates to use LFP cathodes whereas for higher range vehicles high nickel cathodes will be more appropriate. In the Chinese market Tesla currently uses LFP cathodes in its standard range Model 3 and is in the early stages of extending this to the Model Y.",{"type":577,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":49},[702],{"text":703,"type":582},"Away from EVs, LFP chemistries are well suited to energy storage applications and Musk suggested that all of Tesla’s stationary storage applications could eventually move to LFP chemistries. The buildout of 5G base station infrastructure in China over the past 18 months is a prime example of the role LFP chemistries can play in the energy storage market.",{"type":622,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"level":624,"textAlign":49},[707],{"text":708,"type":582},"Tesla vs Apple: who uses the most cobalt?",{"type":577,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"textAlign":49},[712],{"text":713,"type":582},"Musk also drew attention to Apple’s use of cobalt, saying “there’s somehow a misconception that Tesla uses a lot of cobalt, but we actually don’t. Apple uses I think almost 100% cobalt in their batteries in cellphones and laptops….on a weighted average basis, we might use 2% cobalt”",{"type":577,"attrs":715,"content":716},{"textAlign":49},[717],{"text":718,"type":582},"While the battery cells used by Apple in its portable products will not contain 100% cobalt, it is certainly true that these cells will contain a greater proportion of cobalt than in Tesla’s vehicles.",{"type":577,"attrs":720,"content":721},{"textAlign":49},[722],{"text":723,"type":582},"Portables, which includes mobile telephones and laptops, typically use LCO (lithium cobalt oxide) cathodes which contain significantly higher volumes of cobalt than NCM/NCA cathodes.",{"type":577,"attrs":725,"content":726},{"textAlign":49},[727],{"text":728,"type":582},"Benchmark data suggests that in 2020 Apple consumed more than double the volume of cobalt than Tesla did, but this dynamic will reverse in coming years as ramping EV production will see Tesla’s cobalt use overtake Apple’s.","Tesla is feeling the combined effects of an ongoing global semiconductor shortage and a limited supply of tier one lithium battery cells, writing in its Q2 2021 earnings presentation that “due to the limited availability of battery cells and global supply chain challenges, we have shifted the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022.” […]",[731],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":732},{"job_title":568,"image":733,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"df208306-2bc8-49a5-b2a2-cc248cee3683\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[737],{"slug":738,"name":739},"batteries","Batteries","private",{"id":49,"alt":742,"name":742,"focus":742,"title":742,"source":742,"filename":743,"copyright":742,"fieldtype":744,"meta_data":745,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/6f14066e3d/bm-tesla-coming-soon-1.jpg","asset",{"alt":742,"title":742,"source":742,"copyright":742},"Aug 13, 2021","13th August 2021",[],[],1792773933237]